Posted on 11/04/2006 8:00:39 PM PST by calcowgirl
SACRAMENTO - California's top election official predicted Friday that 55 percent of registered voters will cast ballots in Tuesday's election, fewer than in any general election in state history except one.
How a relatively low voter turnout might affect the outcome of races for statewide offices such as governor and lieutenant governor, as well as controversial proposals to impose higher taxes on oil companies and tobacco, is anyone's guess.
Conventional wisdom holds that a lower turnout favors Republicans, whose voters are more reliable about showing up on Election Day. That could translate into a big night for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and possibly other Republicans running in close races for statewide offices, said GOP political strategist Dan Schnur.
"The lower the turnout," Schnur said, "the greater the margin of victory in the governor's race, and the better the chance for Republicans" running for other statewide offices to prevail. Recent polls show Schwarzenegger running well ahead of Democrat Phil Angelides in the governor's contest, and close races for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and insurance commissioner.
Democrats believe that anxiety over the war in Iraq and other national issues will help drive turnout in their favor.
"There is more than sufficient motivation for Democrats to show up on Tuesday," said Steve Maviglio, a Democratic strategist who is advising Angelides.
But with polls showing lopsided races for governor and U.S. Senate, and few Congressional seats in play, there appears to be little on the California ballot to stir voter interest.
Secretary of State Bruce McPherson (a Santa Cruz Republican who himself is in a tight re-election battle against Democrat Debra Bowen) said he based his turnout forecast on a number of factors.
Among the considerations:
• voting in previous nonpresidential year general elections
• the number of absentee ballots that counties have issued
• voter registration figures.
"We even looked at the weather forecast," McPherson said.
He expects turnout to exceed the 50.6 percent of registered voters who cast ballots in 2002, the last regularly scheduled gubernatorial election. But that was an all-time low in California for a non-presidential general election.
Santa Clara County is predicting turnout of 45 to 50 percent on Tuesday, said Elma Rosas, a spokeswoman for the registrar's office.
In one possible sign of hope for Democrats, the proportion of absentee ballots returned by Democratic voters at this juncture is higher than in past elections, said Jim Hayes, president of Political Data Inc.
Hayes said he has tracked absentee returns in all but a dozen or so of the state's 58 counties.
"Is it a monumental shift? Absolutely not," Hayes said. But "it's clearly a decent sign for Democrats that they are where they are right now in terms of returns."
1. Vote YES on Lt. Gov Tom McClintock
2. Vote YES on AG Chuck Poochigian (vs. Moonbeam as Top Cop)
3. Vote NO on Debt (Prop 1B-C-D-E and Prop 84)
4. Vote NO on Taxes (Prop 86, 87, 88)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
November 2006 Ballot Initiatives
DOLLARS IN BILLIONS
BONDS
Amount Principal & Interest
Prop 1B Transportation Bond $19.925 $38.900
Prop 1C Housing Bond $ 2.850 $ 6.100
Prop 1D Education Bond $10.416 $20.300
Prop 1E Levee Bond $ 4.090 $ 8.000
Prop 84 Park Bond $ 5.400 $10.500
------- -------
Total Bonds $42.600 $83.800
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TAXES (annual)
Prop 86 Cigarette Tax $ 2.100
Prop 87 Oil Tax $ 0.485 (4 Billion total)
Prop 88 Parcel Tax $ 0.470
-------
Total Taxes (annual) $ 3.055
I'm reasonably pleased with McClintock's prospects. It would be great to get him into the Lt. Gov. office.
Hmmmm?? In San Diego County - I'm hearing that people are standing in line to vote early and the registrar's office will be open again tomorrow (Sunday) and again on Monday for early voting.
So .. let's not get concerned about ELECTION DAY being a low turnout - the drive-by media will not count the percentage that ALREADY VOTED!!
Moonbeam for Attn Gen?
Sounds like something sarcastic that would be said around here as a nik for a Dem.
Please tell me we have a chance to beat Moonbeam.
calcowgirl,
That's what exactly what I voted... :)
Moonbeam is the longstanding nickname for our ex-Gov leftist Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown who is now running for Attorney General.
Unfortunately, Moonbeam currently has a healthy lead in the polls against a solid Republican candidate, Chuck Poochigian.
"80% survive the surgery. Of those that survive the surgery, 80% return home within weeks. Of those, 80% lead reasonable lives. Of those, 80% live at least 5 years. of those, 80% ...."
The reality was that in the early days of open heart surgery few patients enjoyed great benefit.
The 55% quote is mindful of that process. The reality is that as little as 15% of those eligible to vote, may decide the outcome, in a political system that requires participation.
Smart guy! :-)
Hey,
must've come from a good gene pool, ya know :). Joking aside, we need to push back the liberal tides in California.
Good Lord Jerry Brown is still around?
He was a young Politician two decades ago when I lived in Cali.
Didn't he even take a stab at Prez of the US at one point?
Where is ole Willie Brown now a dayz?
There is hope. Liberal night walkers are aborting their offspring, half the population is sexually dysfunctional and can't bread, and the girlie mans sperm count keeps going down. Eventually, their own behavior will make them extinct.
Yes, and Michael Savage wants you to vote for him.
Hmmm... let's see.
There are 22,652,190 eligible voters.
Of those, 15,837,108 or 69.91 % are registered to vote
Of those, 55% (8,710,409) are expected to vote (38.5% of eligible voters)
Of those, approximately 50% (or 4,355,000) will choose the winning candidate.
Hence, approximately 19.2% will decide the outcome.
You pretty much nailed that one. Sad.
"There is hope. Liberal night walkers are aborting their offspring, half the population is sexually dysfunctional and can't bread, and the girlie mans sperm count keeps going down. Eventually, their own behavior will make them extinct.hehehe... I know there some chance :)
Jerry Brown - from wikipedia:
Edmund Gerald "Jerry" Brown, Jr. (born April 7, 1938), currently mayor of the city of Oakland, California, is an American lawyer and political figure. A Democrat, Brown has had a lengthy political career spanning terms on the Los Angeles Community College Board of Trustees (1969-1971), as California Secretary of State (1971-1975), as Governor of California (1975-1983), as chairman of the California Democratic Party (1989-1991), and as mayor of Oakland (1998-present). He unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nominations for president in 1976, 1980, and 1992, and was the Democratic nominee for the US Senate in 1982. Brown is the Democratic nominee for California Attorney General in the November 2006 general election.
Willie Brown:
Based on news reports, he is still active in the Democratic party operating in the background. Most recently, he was Mayor of San Francisco, retiring in 2004.
Thanks.
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