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Dems Nervous About Montana US Senate Seat as Internal Polling Shows Dead Heat
Hotline /Natonal Journal's Saturday Brunch (subscription required) ^ | November 4 2006 | Chuck Todd

Posted on 11/04/2006 11:03:11 AM PST by meg88

Montana's tightness concerns Democrats

Over the past two days, Gov. Brian Schweitzer has convened conference calls with several groups of Democrats, including a handful of prominent liberal bloggers.

His message is that Jon Tester's (D) margin over Conrad Burns (R) has shrunk to about five points in internal Democratic tracking, and that if Tester isn't ahead of Burns by three points on election day, the state's natural conservative swing could shove Tester off the precipice of victory.

Democratic donors have also been asked to contribute.

Democrats worry about the GOP's formidable 72 Hour Program in the state, long touted as one of the country's most proficient.

Republicans say they've averaging about 17,000 telephone calls and in-person contacts with voters. (Hotline)

A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Republicans are coming home for Burns. The poll has the two tied at 47%. Will the under-50% incumbent-rule kick-in or has Burns become the challenger?


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Montana
KEYWORDS: ratsintrouble
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1 posted on 11/04/2006 11:03:12 AM PST by meg88
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To: meg88

I've never doubted the outcome of this race no more then with kyl.


2 posted on 11/04/2006 11:08:16 AM PST by AZRepublican ("The degree in which a measure is necessary can never be a test of the legal right to adopt it.")
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To: AZRepublican

I think this is going firmly to Burns now if Mason-Dixson says 47-47


3 posted on 11/04/2006 11:12:44 AM PST by meg88
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To: meg88

Dems getting that sinking feeling in their stomachs.


4 posted on 11/04/2006 11:19:05 AM PST by Names Ash Housewares
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To: meg88

If an MD is tied, you can lock in a GOP victory. The GOTV is good for 2 (the article says 3, but that seems too much)and the silent voters is good for 2, with late breakers adding 1-2% IMO.


5 posted on 11/04/2006 11:21:20 AM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If a pug barks and no one is around to hear it... they hold a grudge for a long time!)
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To: meg88

This is indeed good news. What's with this morning's story on NRO that Schumer is going to spend $1M in new money in AZ to boost Pederson, who is challenging Kyl? Is it a desperation move or a sign of overconfidence everywhere else on the map? Can't quite figure it.

My wife and I are already "in the bag" for Kyl and Flake.


6 posted on 11/04/2006 11:25:11 AM PST by AZ GOPher
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To: meg88
"the state's natural conservative swing could shove Tester off the precipice of victory"

Is it just me or would this indicate that the polls should have been weighted in favor of the republican to account for this "Natural" swing?

After all, every other poll out their is weighted to the dems, I suppose to account for their "natural" tendency towards voter fraud
7 posted on 11/04/2006 11:27:09 AM PST by nov7freedomday
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To: meg88

How in hell do these Dems get any kind of support in such strong Red States as Montana, Nebraska, etc? Let's hope the good people in Big Sky Country get out and send Burns over the top.


8 posted on 11/04/2006 11:28:30 AM PST by bigbob (2)
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To: bigbob
In Montana, the bad news for the GOP is that Burns is 70+ years old, a marginal candidate, and scandal-plagued. The good news -- based on what I've read over the last couple of weeks -- is that the Democrats may have nominated the one guy in their party (Tester) who could actually lost to Burns.

In states like Nebraska, candidates of both parties get a firm grip on their Senate seats by running as conservatives (I was out in South Dakota during Tom Daschle's last campaign, and based on the ads I saw/heard I would have sworn he was a Republican) and by getting a lot of financial support from agri-business giants like Archer Daniels Midland.

9 posted on 11/04/2006 11:32:19 AM PST by Alberta's Child (Can money pay for all the days I lived awake but half asleep?)
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To: bigbob
How in hell do these Dems get any kind of support in such strong Red States as Montana, Nebraska, etc?

They have a populist tradition that isn't necessarily conservative. William Jennings Bryant the four time Democratic presidential nominiee was from Nebraska. A lot of the red states went rathter strongly for the DemocRATS prior to the 1980's. Gore Vidal's grandfather was a DemocRAT senator from Oklahoma.

10 posted on 11/04/2006 11:38:09 AM PST by Paleo Conservative
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To: meg88

11 posted on 11/04/2006 11:39:48 AM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If a pug barks and no one is around to hear it... they hold a grudge for a long time!)
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To: Alberta's Child; bigbob
In Montana, the bad news for the GOP is that Burns is 70+ years old, a marginal candidate, and scandal-plagued. The good news -- based on what I've read over the last couple of weeks -- is that the Democrats may have nominated the one guy in their party (Tester) who could actually lost to Burns.

Hopefully if Burns wins, the RNC will be able to persuade him to not run for reelection in 2012 when he will be 77.

12 posted on 11/04/2006 11:43:06 AM PST by Paleo Conservative
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To: meg88

Oh joy oh joy... that means all weekend long we are going to have endure yet more phone calls from the Tester camp. I've long stop being polite.


13 posted on 11/04/2006 11:45:23 AM PST by Cate
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To: K4Harty
For the polls overstate the Dem vote by 5% points at least, then add 2 to 3% for GOP GOTV. So, if media polls give the GOP 45%, I'd say that's enough for a win.

I'm sick of GOP politicians. Their cowardice and incompetence is hard to beat. Unfortunately the alternative to the Stupid Party is the Evil Party. I'll vote for stupidity before evil ever time.

The GOP Senate RINOs have to be the target in 2008 primaries. We ought to make a list and check with FReepers from those States and see, if there are primary challengers getting ready.

US Senate RINOs: Snowe, Collins, Hagel, McCain, Graham, Specter, others?

14 posted on 11/04/2006 12:09:22 PM PST by Jabba the Nutt (Jabba the Hutt's bigger, meaner, uglier brother.)
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To: meg88

that can't be because look how the latest Newsweek has Bush's people being put to sleep and with a dire headline

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15557264/site/newsweek/


15 posted on 11/04/2006 12:12:17 PM PST by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: Paleo Conservative

He should have had the decency to step down before this election, which MT Republicans could have groomed a younger, more conservative replacement.


16 posted on 11/04/2006 12:13:49 PM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist
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To: AZ GOPher

"...schumer is going to spend $1 million in new money a
in az to boost pederson...."

nothing worse than a wise-ass, smart-guy, they-told-me-i-was-brilliant
liberal democrat. (when is he going to break down and buy one of those
eastern european worker's caps with a red star on it)

his will be the first face you see at the re-education camp.


17 posted on 11/04/2006 12:15:06 PM PST by ripley
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist
He should have had the decency to step down before this election, which MT Republicans could have groomed a younger, more conservative replacement.

I can't disagree with your statement. It sometimes requires a near death experience in an election to get a multiterm incumbent to consider retirement.

18 posted on 11/04/2006 12:51:30 PM PST by Paleo Conservative
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To: meg88

I'm wondering what the significance of Joseph Lieberman's designation as "independent" will be when the smoke clears. If Republicans get to 50-50 they always have Cheney to break ties. Lieberman will probably make a miraculous reunion with his party 5 seconds after being sworn in for the next term, but he could theoretically join the Republican Party for what would most likely be the last Senate term he will put in. When an individual campaigns as an "independent" - I'm assuming it has no other significance that for the purpose of identification on a state ballot - it seems to me it has no meaning for what a Senator-elect or a Senator once seated declares himself to be.


19 posted on 11/04/2006 12:53:13 PM PST by Wally_Kalbacken
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To: Jabba the Nutt

I vote straight line conservative, but also the lesser of two evils between GOPhers or RATS


20 posted on 11/04/2006 12:57:33 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If a pug barks and no one is around to hear it... they hold a grudge for a long time!)
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