markets *always* knee-jerk react to unexpected data or news in the very short-term. the area of interest is not the contract value the afternoon of the election, but in the weeks running up to it.
"They picked exactly what the polls told them to pick. If you want a classic example of that, take a look at tradesports charts on Bush and Kerry immediately before and after the phoney exit poll data was released on election day 2004. Within minutes Kerry soared to a 75% or so odds on favorite. If the betters really had the inside scoop, nothing would have changed as a result of the bogus polls."
That' a very good example to tell you that tradesports is not perfect. In fact once I realized the exit polls were off, I was wondering about betting on it. Three *are* ways to beat the market.