markets *always* knee-jerk react to unexpected data or news in the very short-term. the area of interest is not the contract value the afternoon of the election, but in the weeks running up to it.
Oh. So in the weeks running up to the election, speculators are basing their bets on real data as opposed to poll driven hype?! What were the odds on Foley's seat remaining in Republican hands 3 days after the scandal erupted? What are they now? What changed in the interim? Foley's constituents?!?