Midterm elections: Democrats seen as having a small edge (What Happened to "The Wave?"

earthtimes.org ^ | Fri, 03 Nov 2006 14:06:00 GMT | Geoffrey Lewis

[rightinthemiddle]

WASHINGTON: The congressional elections in the U.S. are just four days away and both the Democrats and the Republicans are making claims and counterclaims on who will have the majority and whose policies will decide the fate of the country.

Democrats are confident now they will have majority in one if not both the chambers of Congress. Republicans too do not show any signs of relenting though most observers feel they are trying to cover up indications that many of the incumbents are in trouble.

Democratic campaign officers claimed they feel optimistic to retake the House with at least a 15-seat majority and a six-seat gain in the Senate. This claim seems not a boast as strategists in the Republican side have said as many as 20 Republican-held seats could go either way in states stretching from Connecticut through New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana. Republicans do not expect their Senators Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania and Mike DeWine in Ohio to win. They are also admitting secretly at least six or more seats are in jeopardy.

However, president Bush is very confident. He says there is no threat of a debacle for the party. At a recent campaign meeting he said the party has been through this before and it will win the Senate and the House.

[rightinthemiddle]

Are the Left Wingers scared?

[AppyPappy]

Lower expectations and everything looks good.

[rightinthemiddle]

Bush's and Rove's confidence has them shaken!

[Pete]

Now is the time when pollsters start tightening their numbers so that they can claim credibility after the election. Just look at the PA senate race. All of a sudden, today, Santorum is only down by 8 points when the polls have shown him down by 15 for the pass year. I am guessing that 8 will drop even more by Tuesday.

That is just one example. Nothing new. Same thing has happened at least since 1996.

[Frank Sheed]

http://www.electionprojection.com/

Looks a lot different then it did 10 days ago...

[HitmanLV]

There has been a slow, sustained tightening of races all over the map for about the last 10 days. Since dems were favored almost everywhere, that pretty much meant that the GOP was getting a slow, sustained momentum.

Kerry's flap reminded many folks just how much he and the dems suck, which is why dem candidates were running away from him and the MSM was running interference on that story, shilling for any excuse that could get Kerry off the hook. Their conduct made it clear that despite what they were saying, they believed that the Kerry flap was damaging to the dems.

The Kerry mess probably added some wind to the sail of the pre-existing slow GOP momentum. That's a good thing. Wait and see.

[kempster]

You hit the nail right on the head. I told most of my "doubting Thomas" fellow Republican friends to watch a few days before the Election when the numbers start tightening. These people make a living on their credibility. If they are totally wrong we won't listen to them again(sarcasm on)until the next election.

[Rodm]

On Tuesday night all the liberal newsreaders will be asking, "How could all these polls be so far off?"

[rightinthemiddle]

Montana is in play as well. Perhaps 52, or more, for the GOP.

[rightinthemiddle]

Sounds like '04.

It was a lot of fun. Worth "voting" for.

[7thson]

I live in Calvert County and drive up and down Route 4 to work and back. It hit me yesterday that while I see cars with Republican stickers and signs on them, I rarely see one with Dem stickers. I have not seen a single car with a Cardin sticker, O'Malley sticker, or a Mike Miller sticker. I saw one with a Mfume for Senate sticker but that car still had a Kerry-Edwards sticker on it.

I read today the AA newspaper in Baltimore has endorsed Steele and Ehrlich. I do not know for sure but I think the FOP has endorsed Ehrlich, considering what crime is like in Baltimore and O'Malley's relationship with law enforcement. We may or may not lose Penn., but I believe we will pick up Maryland. The Dems hardly ever talk about this but I know Maryland has them worried.

[SoFloFreeper]

This claim seems not a boast as strategists in the Republican side have said as many as 20 Republican-held seats...

Uh, it wasn't a strategist, it was a columnist Bob Novak. And I hope is math is off. :)

[HitmanLV]

Given the GOP has enjoyed sustained doldrums for over the last year, I too am surprised at how many GOP car stickers I have seen in the last several months here in Las Vegas, in a county with just a few more dems than GOPers.

I haven't seen many dem-sympathetic car stickers, either.

Go figure.

[CharlesWayneCT]

They really have come down, haven't they.

And they have both Fl 16 and Fl 13 going to the democrats, I don't expect either to happen, but almost certain the FL-16 people will go for Negron.

[mwl1]

I just returned from an excited gathering of volunteers with Senator Norm Coleman and Congressman Gil Gutknecht. Norm told me privately that he is convinced we will hold the Senate.

I keep thinking about how much this cycle might be different if Norm hadn't lost the vote to Liddy Dole by a one vote margin to lead the NRSC. And I told him so!

[Lazamataz]

In before the RYMB.

[Red Badger]

The "wave"?......Ithought it was going to be a tsunami, according to the MSM!..........

[Miss Didi]

You wouldn't know it listening to WABC Radio this a.m. They were giddy at the news hours over the Dems' chance of winning it all.

Ann Compton, traveling with W, was breathless, absolutely delirious, blabbing that Claire M.'s victory would mean the Dems' taking over the Senate. I thought, what math is she doing?

[LIConFem]

What happened to "The Wave?"

It peaked too early. That's the problem with liberals. No control...

;o)

[300magnum]

Check out this guy's predictions:

Projected New Senate: 49 Democrats 49 Republicans 2 ties

Projected New House*: 241 Democrats 193 Republicans 1 Tie

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls. Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-04 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 KY-04 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01 OH-02 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

There's also a little poll question there someone may want to post a "Freep This" to. ;-)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/