Posted on 11/02/2006 8:27:50 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative
As Arizona's J.D. Hayworth Goes, So Goes Republican Control of the House ... ?
In an election for U.S. House of Representatives today, in Arizona's 5th Congressional District, prominent incumbent Republican J.D. Hayworth is in trouble, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 643 Likely Voters conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Just as it was in SurveyUSA's most recent poll, released 10/16/06, the contest today is within the survey's margin of sampling error. But unlike 10/16, when Hayworth still clung to a 3-point lead, today it is Democrat challenger Harry Mitchell who is up by 2 points.
Going back to SurveyUSA's first poll in the District in September, Hayworth has lost 6 points, Mitchell has gained 8. A 12-point Republican lead on 9/18 has been erased. Where is the movement? Among female voters, Mitchell had trailed by 4, now leads by 6, a 10-point swing to the Democrat. Among Moderates, Mitchell led by 15 points 2 weeks ago, today leads by 32 points. Among Republicans, 12% voted Democrat in September, 15% voted Democrat 2 weeks ago, 19% vote Democrat today.
While this is still only a small amount of erosion from within the Republican base, in a contest this closely contested, it could make the difference. Among Conservatives, though still overwhelmingly Republican, the number who "cross-over" to vote for the Democrat has doubled, from 8% to 16%.
Because the contest has national ramifications, and outside money is pouring in to hold the seat for the GOP, these results may fluctuate in the campaign's remaining 6 days. Hayworth was first elected to Congress in 1994.
(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...
Whaaa???
Oops. Down "2". I've alerted Mods to fix.
Junk Poll.
John McCain should make himself useful.
You need to fix your title:
From your link to the poll:
46% Hayworth (R)
48% Mitchell (D)
4% Severin (L)
2% Undecided
cool-fixed
Are there any Arizona Freepers who can confirm this? This big a swing should be fairly evident to anyone with their eyes open. Is this for real?
I already did!
Thanks, mods.
Anybody local can tell us why JD is in trouble? From afar he makes a very good impression. What are his skeletons?
The presence of the liberatarian in the governors race four years ago gave AZ a Hillary clone. The same may happen here, too. That and illegals voting.
According to the poll, the erosion has been slow and stead-- from up 3 to down 2, most recently.
I don't believe this for a second, except for the fact SO many Californians have moved to AZ in the last several years. That's the only explanation I can come up with.
OK...that's better.
A poll of only 643 voters is going to have a relatively high sampling error, probably around 6%.
This is statistical wash, but this article has spun it as a Republican defeat.
Pure crappola.
4 points for the libertarian unreal. The dems got most of the greens to drop out.
Hayworth is great on illegal immigration.
This shows the absolute undemocratic system we have when the media can depress the nation so much for a tidal wave even with someone like nancy pelosi.
The trends in all these polls are horrible.
For the conservatives that are planning not to go out and vote to send the gop a message.
The gop is already going to get a message if you stay home it will be a generational message and a supermajority for pelosi.
If conservatives stay home you could be looking at upwards of 40 seats.
What?
I thought he was one of the leaders against illegal immigration???
There have been anti-Hayworth ads running down here in Tucson (during the Rush Limbaugh show). According to the ad, Bush and Hayworth joined forces to screw the elderly.
In VA transplanted yankees that have moved to Northern VA are turning our beautiful Red state into a question mark.
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