SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- November 2006 Update

self | November 1, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

UPDATE 11/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT

SIX DAYS AWAY FROM NOV 7, here's my updated opinions on the races. Things have moved towards the GOP in my opinion.

[Note: We have 48 GOP seats besides these 12 that are either not up for reelection or they are not close enough to be in play.]

The SENATE "CONTESTS" (Ranked most likely GOP to least)

VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (90%) Webb is toast
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (70%) Michael J Fox backfired
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (60%) "Playboy" Ford is making stupid moves
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Keep 51 seat GOP control ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
(Note: need two of three for 50-50 Cheney majority, but this entails power-sharing in cmtes, etc)

MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (55%) improving, Bush to visit next week
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (55%) improving, great ads
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (50%) steady, RINO v. crook- go with the RINO
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (50%) improving, Rick deserves win
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP (status quo ratio) ^^^^^^^^^^^^

MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (50%) Bouchard surging!
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (40%) lib v. lib- who cares?
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (40%) I hope DeWine pulls it out, but it looks unlikely from here
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (25%) hard to get traction
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (25%) improving but way behind
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^

SAFE GOP SEATS

AZ- (R= current seatholder)- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum GOP

SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS

CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman(I) or Lamont(D) safe
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- Akaka safe
MA- D- Kennedy safe
NE- D- Nelson safe (sorry FL Freepers- prove me wrong!)
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Soc safe
DEMS: 13 safe + 27 carryovers = 40 minimum DEM

[Right_in_Virginia]

Thanks. Do you have a breakdown? (I'll need this to know what to watch for tomorrow).

[mrsmith]

Show this to your fellow political historians (just kidding they'd burn you at the stake LOL!)

The historic moonphase voting chart predicts a gain of 5 to 8 seats by the Dems.

Chart of moon phase and how the outparty does in House seats.

1992 waxing +9
1994 waxing +54
1996 waxing +8
1998 waxing +5
2000 waning +2
2002 waning -8
2004 waning -3
2006 waning

Source: WTF? Correlations Co. Inc.
:-)

[LS]

Mine are here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1733642/post

[RobFromGa]

I promise I didn't see yours first! (Really)

You and I are on pretty much the same page Larry. This isn't surprising since we've both been optimistic all along. Now we just need to be right!

Please let Santorum and Bouchard pull off upsets!

[ConservativeGreek]

Thanks Rob! Hope you're right. Hope I'm wrong!

Still think a 52 or 53 R Senate is likely.
Dropping PA, OH, and RI.

Could drop MT and could pick up in MD.

[pgkdan]

Well I guess now's a good time to go on record. I think we win:
VA, MO, TN, RI, PA, OH, MD, MI and MN, that's +2 for the good guys.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

GOTV in my county in Iowa is wrapped up. All our lit drops are done.

In 2004, the Dems whipped us in absentees and we carried Iowa for GWB. This year, our absentee effort has surpassed that of the Dems. This could be a good indicator of things to come tomorrow.

[Clintonfatigued]

My predictions (updated from a couple of days ago)

AZ- Jon Kyl over Jim Pederson, 55% to 45%.

CT- Joe Lieberman over Ned Lamont, 52% to 44%.

MD- Michael Steele over Ben Cardin, 52% to 48%.

MI- Debbie Stabenow over Michael Bouchard, 53% to 47%.

MN- Amy Kobluchar over Mark Kennedy, 56% to 44%.

MO- Jim Talent over Claire McCaskill, 51% to 49%.

MT- Conrad Burns over Jon Tester, 51% to 49%.

NE- Ben Nelson over Peter Ricketts, 59% to 41%.

NV- John Ensign over Jack Carter, 57% to 43%.

NJ- Tom Kean over Bob Menendez, 51% to 49%.

OH- Sherrod Brown over Mike DeWine, 54% to 46%.

PA- Bob Casey over Rick Santorum, 55% to 45%.

RI- Lincoln Chafee over Sheldon Whitehouse, 52% to 48%.

TN- Bob Corker over Harold Ford, 53% to 47%.

VA- George Allen over Jim Webb, 51% to 49%.

WA- Maria Cantwell over Mike McGavick, 56% to 44%.

[ClaireSolt]

Correct me, if I am wrong, but it seems as if R's have been playing defense. By '08 we need to go back on offense with vision and keen ideas.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Redmen4ever]

I don't feel anywhere as sure this year as I did any of the past several election years.

SENATE: minus 2

Democratic pick-up opportunities:

AZ - probable GOP
TN - probable GOP
MO - likely GOP
VA - leans GOP
MT - toss-up
RI - leans DEM
OH - leans DEM
PA - leans DEM

Republican pick-up opportunities

MD - toss-up
NJ - leans DEM
MI - leans DEM
MN - likely DEM
WA - likely DEM

My bottom line supposes the Republicans lose PA, OH and RI and pickup MD. However, I wouldn't be very surprised if there are some upsets among the places described as leans.

Turning to the House ...

I think the Republicans will net lose 8 to 14 seats, and will keep control of the House.

Republican losses will be confined almost completely to open races in marginal districts, and to incumbents with ethics problems.

Crucially, the Republicans will win at least 1 of the 3 races in which they have replacement candidates (DeLay's seat in TX, Ney's seat in OH, and Foley's seat in FL).

Also, the Republican incumbents in Connecticut will do just fine.

In the end, we will reconsider how our models for predicting "likely" voters, and consider weighting self-described Republicans as somewhat likely to vote, even if they don't otherwise qualify as likely.

I think being a Republican, nowadays, involves a sense of duty (e.g., we will do our duty in Iraq even though it is unpleasant), and that has a carryover for the duty of voting even in a year where we are disappointed in some of our representatives in government.

[nikos1121]

You've provided a wonderful service.

Your predictions are?

Republicans GAIN one seat in Senate?

and in the House?

nick

[RobFromGa]

Arrived at my polling place in North Atlanta suburb at 6:45, there were 26 people there already in front of me. When the polls opened at 7, there were about 20 more behind me. When I left at 7:10, another about 20 had arrived since 7.

They all appeared to have driven to the poll by themselves, and did not appear to be drunk, so I can assume they are likely voting Republican.

[RobFromGa]

My FINAL predictions:

I think we win in VA, MO, TN, MT, MD, NJ, OH, and RI. (+2: MD, NJ)
I think we lose in MI, PA, MN, and WA. (-1: PA)

Net +1 in the Senate. These are my final predictions, I changed OH to Win, PA to lose, MI to lose, RI to win, still 56-42-2.

We keep the House with a loss of 7 to 9 seats net. I think we pickup 3-4 Dem seats and lose about 10-14 GOP seats

New Jersey and Ohio I am not confident about, but I think we will win close ones.

[LS]

If I have to eat crow tomorrow, so be it, but I go out knowing I've done everything in my power to bring these predictions to pass: I've personally covered many thousand houses, and my team, close to 10,000; I've written editorials; and above all, I've prayed, daily, for every contested seat in both houses for more than a month.

Now, on to the gloatfest tomorrow when we bury these heathen Dems!

[LS]

Even if you're right on the outcomes---and I don't concede that---the DeWine and Santorum and Bouchard races are VERY close.

[TexasPatriot8]

Hoping and praying that you're totally right!!! If the only GOP losses are two RINOs and there is a one seat pick up, that would be SOOOOO sweet! Especially because of this below!!!

About to get out and doing whatever is to be done to help out today, but before going, I wanted to pass this along to those in the close Senate states that don't know it. Justice Stevens is NOT in good health. Check this thread out here: Someone in his family has reported that his health is bad, and has some kind of illness, and at 86 that's very serious. The Senate races in Pennsylvania, Missouri, Virginia, Tennessee, Ohio, Montana, Rhode Island are even more important with this news. Justice Stevens WILL NOT BE ON THE SUPREME COURT in two years. And Ruth Ginsberg is not in good health either. There will be at least one, maybe TWO Supreme Court nominations for Bush in the next two years. It's CRITICALLY important for the GOP to hold the Senate even more because of this. I hope the GOP campaigns in those states are using this to drive conervatives to the polls. This is CRITICAL important, second ONLY to the war and border control. A Democrat Senate, means those nominees will have to be gutless milk-toast moderates like Kennedy and O'Conner. We CAN'T let that happen!!!

AND two Democrat incumbant House members are going to lose their seats to the conservative GOP candidatate. The GOP has said that is a lock, so that makes it harder for the libs to take the House!!! That's great news also!!!

[TexasPatriot8]

Sorry, the thread is here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1733273/posts . Good luck everyone!!! God willing we'll have lots of VERY sad liberals tonight!!!

[jsmaineconservative]

I'm going to go way out on a limb and predict Senator Snowe will win. Ha,Ha,ha. But I'm starting to get the feeling that the GOP is going to pick up at least two seats. Kean and Steele. Santorum's legal team better be ready because I think it's a Florida 2000 type of race.

[RobFromGa]

I'm very Sorry for being so wrong on my predictions. I couldn't have been more wrong if I tried.

The biggest shock to me is Virginia, followed closely by Missouri. The rest I can at least understand.

Hopefully we can pull out a squeaker in Montana and manage at least nominal control with Cheney breaking the tie. All in all, a horrible night for our country.

Pray for our soldiers that our enemies will not be emboldened into causing greater carnage. Our country needs to make a choice on the War on Terror-- either we fight it to win, or we do something besides fight. Fighting to lose as the Democrats seem to suggest as the strategy is not an option.

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