So what does that tell you? That the polls, all of 'em, are bad, bad off. Why? Is there precedence?
Yes. In 1994, no one picked up the GOP tsunami. In 1996, EVERY major poll was off, and off in Clinton's direction, by as much as 8%. That's serious error.
Why would they all---ALL---every few years, be off?
Dunno, nor is it my job to know. It's like worrying about why the idiots on ESPN all said Minnesota would win vs. NE the other night. Utter lunacy. But there they were. There is a herd mentality with poll design and when some start designing bad polls, others seem to follow.
The LS rule, in case you forgot, is add 5% to the GOP candidate, subtract %5 from the Dem, and you're close. Just go through the NRO polls and do that, and you'll get a rough idea of where election night will end up.
But Republicans do not. The huge turn out for Reagan in 1984 was not duplicated until 2004. The Republican turn out fell in 1988, 1992, and stayed low in 1996. But jumped to 50 million in 2000 and 62 million in 2004.
Why have the last two presidential elections been so good? It is largely due to the political machine built by Karl Rove. It is a machine that gets out the votes. This year with the computerized data base identifying likely Republican voters and the issues that motivate them, the Republican turn out is apt to be very good. Much better than the Democratic turn out efforts.
I expect the turn out efforts to dwarf earlier turn outs.
I would remind you that President Bush and Karl Rove said in 2000 that they were building a Republican party that was designed to rule the American political world for the next 30 years.
I think there is a reason for the Bush and Rove optimism. Even the media has begun to tell us the outcome of the election will depend on the Republican base turn out. Republicans are wining the independents by a slight margin. If the base comes out as it has in the last 3 elections the Republicans will hold the house and the senate.
The most important thing of this years race is the media is making no attempt to be neutral or unbiased. They are not attributing things to Democrats or "observers" or even "political experts". They are presenting the Democrat talking points as if they were facts.
If the media loses this election no politician on the left or the right can believe that the media can elect or defeat anyone. The media is full bore for Democrats. If the Democrats lose both the Democrats and Republicans will at long last understand that pleasing the media can result in defeat.
Pleasing the voters will be the new style and both parties will have to move to the right to please voters.
Republicans who want to stay home to teach Republicans a lesson will teach them it is not wise to get on the bad side of the media. Both parties will turn left and lefter.