But Republicans do not. The huge turn out for Reagan in 1984 was not duplicated until 2004. The Republican turn out fell in 1988, 1992, and stayed low in 1996. But jumped to 50 million in 2000 and 62 million in 2004.
Why have the last two presidential elections been so good? It is largely due to the political machine built by Karl Rove. It is a machine that gets out the votes. This year with the computerized data base identifying likely Republican voters and the issues that motivate them, the Republican turn out is apt to be very good. Much better than the Democratic turn out efforts.
I expect the turn out efforts to dwarf earlier turn outs.
I would remind you that President Bush and Karl Rove said in 2000 that they were building a Republican party that was designed to rule the American political world for the next 30 years.
I think there is a reason for the Bush and Rove optimism. Even the media has begun to tell us the outcome of the election will depend on the Republican base turn out. Republicans are wining the independents by a slight margin. If the base comes out as it has in the last 3 elections the Republicans will hold the house and the senate.
The most important thing of this years race is the media is making no attempt to be neutral or unbiased. They are not attributing things to Democrats or "observers" or even "political experts". They are presenting the Democrat talking points as if they were facts.
If the media loses this election no politician on the left or the right can believe that the media can elect or defeat anyone. The media is full bore for Democrats. If the Democrats lose both the Democrats and Republicans will at long last understand that pleasing the media can result in defeat.
Pleasing the voters will be the new style and both parties will have to move to the right to please voters.
Republicans who want to stay home to teach Republicans a lesson will teach them it is not wise to get on the bad side of the media. Both parties will turn left and lefter.
Common, why do you think the Dem base is "predictable" given that it has consistently lost voters via population movements out of state over the last 10 years? This was the whole point of Jay Cost's analysis in 2004.
It is so good to have you back. Brilliant as always.
*Bumping* your comments
Isn't it interesting how the primary variable in American politics is the Republican turnout? Liberals like to think of conservatives as a kind of unthinking borg but it's really the opposite. Sometimes conservatives stay home, sometimes they crawl over broken glass for the Republicans, sometimes they do things like vote for Ross Perot. It's the Democrat zombie army that trudges to the polls year after year like clockwork.
What is your evidence for concluding, "Republicans are winning the independents by a slight margin"?