I think you folks are a bit too optimistic, and you had better prepare yourselves for a very rough election night. NE 03 is indeed in play, and Cost doesn't give very good reasons for doubting it.
And if that district is in play, and ID 01 is in play, we're on the verge of a potential disaster...
So what does that tell you? That the polls, all of 'em, are bad, bad off. Why? Is there precedence?
Yes. In 1994, no one picked up the GOP tsunami. In 1996, EVERY major poll was off, and off in Clinton's direction, by as much as 8%. That's serious error.
Why would they all---ALL---every few years, be off?
Dunno, nor is it my job to know. It's like worrying about why the idiots on ESPN all said Minnesota would win vs. NE the other night. Utter lunacy. But there they were. There is a herd mentality with poll design and when some start designing bad polls, others seem to follow.
The LS rule, in case you forgot, is add 5% to the GOP candidate, subtract %5 from the Dem, and you're close. Just go through the NRO polls and do that, and you'll get a rough idea of where election night will end up.
I don't think it is going to be disaster but I realize chances are we are going to lose the House. The key will be to stop at all cost potential House Repub retirements because as we know its much more fun being in the majority than the minority.
Some of these open seats that were Republican are causing grief and giving us a hell of a time to defend.
Whole new dynamic in 2008 with unknowns of who the each parties Pres ontender will be. So hopefully they will hold on. I have concerns about these Indiana seats.