A Look at What Happens if Democrats Win Congress

Scripps Howard News Service ^ | October 26, 2006 | Deroy Murdock

[ACU Outreach]

A Look at What Happens if Democrats Win Congress

By Deroy Murdock

Scripps Howard News Service

October 26, 2006

Hypothetically, if Democrats win Congress, don't expect a mild left turn. Watch the U.S. Capitol building spin nearly 180 degrees.

Congress' current Republican leadership—their haplessness and profligacy aside—generally feature senators and representatives with solidly conservative vote records. Conversely, minority leaders and ranking Democrats on congressional committees are among their party's staunchest liberals.

A Democratic victory on Capitol Hill naturally would involve a jump to the Left. But their steering the ship of state hard aport could toss passengers overboard.

Consider the latest vote scorecards from the ACLU, AFL-CIO, Ralph Nader's Public Interest Research Group (PIRG) and the Americans for Democratic Action (ADA) on the Left. On the Right, peruse the ratings from the American Conservative Union (ACU), National Taxpayers Union (NTU), Citizens against Government Waste (CAGW), and the Center for Security Policy (CSP).

The contrast is jarring.

House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Illinois, earned a 100 percent rating from the ACU and CSP. Each judged House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-California, a zero. While the ACLU gave Pelosi a 100, it handed Hastert a zero. This is a public-policy yin-yang.

The House Judiciary Committee could go from chairman James Sensenbrenner's, R-Wisconsin, zero rating to a 95 for John Conyers, D-Michigan, who is poised to become chair.

The numbers 0 and 95 also reflect the respective PIRG ratings for Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas, R-California, and ranking member Charles Rangel, D-New York.

Another key reversal could befall the House Intelligence Committee, where chairman Peter Hoekstra, R-Michigan, has a 100 ACU rating versus a four for Alcee Hastings, D-Florida, reportedly expected to head Intelligence if Democrats prevail. A shift from Hoekstra's 11 ACLU rating to Hastings' 95 would sway a panel that oversees, among other things, terrorists interrogations.

In November 1988, incidentally, the House impeached then-U.S. District Judge Hastings. The Senate convicted him in October 1989 of perjury and conspiracy to solicit a bribe and ejected him from the federal bench. Three years later, he won a U.S. House seat.

In the Senate, Majority Leader Bill Frist's, R-Tennessee, 74 NTU rating could be subsumed by minority leader Harry Reid's five.

While Appropriations chairman Thad Cochran's, R-Mississippi, 63 CAGW rating is not stellar, it glistens beside West Virginia Democrat Robert Byrd's nine.

Foreign Affairs Chairman Richard Lugar, R-Indiana, with an 88 ACU rating, could yield to Joseph Biden, D-Delaware, with an eight.

On Intelligence, Chairman Pat Roberts, R-Kansas, who earned zeros from the ADA and AFL-CIO, might swap with West Virginia Democrat Jay Rockefeller, who received 100 and 79 from those groups.

Today's GOP House speaker, majority leader, and the chairmen of Ways and Means, Budget, Appropriations, Judiciary, International Relations and Intelligence average a 91 ACU rating. Their Democratic counterparts score seven. Conversely, compare the GOP's average ADA rating of four with a 95 for these Democrats.

Today's Senate GOP majority leader and chairmen of Finance, Budget, Appropriations, Judiciary, Foreign Affairs, and Intelligence average an 84 ACU rating and an 11 ADA rating. Democrats' equivalents are 12 and 96.

Some applaud all this potential change.

"This Congress is clearly well out of step with American values," says Caroline Fredrickson, director of the ACLU's Washington Legislative Office. "The ACLU's scorecard focuses on key votes for civil liberties and the Constitution—and we can see that the current leadership is flunking the test. All recent polls underscore that the American public wants a Congress that believes in our Constitution and the values that make America a great country, and not a government that condones torture and illegal actions by the president."

Others deem a Democratic takeover scarier than Halloween.

"CAGW has been critical of Republican spending, especially the increase in pork-barrel projects over the past several years," says CAGW president Tom Schatz. However, "If Democrats take over the House and/or Senate, taxpayers should expect massive increases in wasteful and ineffective domestic programs. The growth of entitlement programs also will explode; attempts to save them for future generations will be scuttled. And kiss your tax cuts goodbye."

For free marketeers, these data should offer a cautionary tale—and an impetus to keep a Democratic congressional takeover strictly hypothetical.

Deroy Murdock is a nationally syndicated columnist with the Scripps Howard News Service. Researcher Marco DeSena contributed to this piece.

[reagan_fanatic]

A Look at What Happens if Democrats Win Congress

[pabianice]

Staples has just delivered 1,000 veto pens to the White House.

[Tzimisce]

How Would Mohammed Vote?

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

Here's a prognostication that the GOP holds the House

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=17743

[ProudFossil]

I have a strong suspicion that President Bush will not veto any legislation except those that directly impact on the War on Terror. Remember in the last almost six years he has only vetoed one bill even though many have come up which he did not approve of.

[goldfinch]

But...but...but...there is no difference between Democrats and Republicans. So say the disgruntled Consevatives who threaten stay at home on election day...

[AntiGuv]

This seems like a good thread to post my latest Senate ratings with a week left before Election Day.

Safe Democratic

California
Connecticut*
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Vermont (I)*
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Likely Democratic

Michigan
Minnesota*
Nebraska
Ohio (R)
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington

Lean Democratic

Maryland*
Montana (R)
New Jersey
Rhode Island (R)

Toss Up

Missouri (R)
Virginia (R)

Lean Republican

Arizona
Tennessee*

Likely Republican

Nevada

Safe Republican

Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

10/30 Prediction: Democrat net gain of 6 to take Senate control.

A few quick comments are in order.

Connecticut: Although the Nutmeg State will remain in Democratic hands regardless (Lieberman is a flaming lib on everything but the Middle East) there are signs that this contest will be closer than has looked to be the case for some while. The hapless Republican is gaining some traction, the ballot works against an Independent candidacy, and Lamont has pumped several million into his final efforts. In brief, if I were making a prediction today I would predict Joementum to win by just 2-3%, and to possibly lose on Nov 7.

Ohio: I should've had this one in Likely Dem last week, but I deviated from my standard methodology thinking DeWine might yet rally. He hasn't.

Washington: I am hesitant to alter my ratings based on early voting but if it's true that some 80% of Washington voters have already voted then this seat might as well be Safe Democratic because the race is over.

Missouri: Whatever the reason - fraud or GOTV - the Democrats have exceeded their statewide polling in the Show Me State for the past three elections. This has been totally obscured by the fact that with the exception of the unusual Ashcroft/Carnahan Senate race the Democrats still fell short. But the point I'm getting at is that if the polling is completely tied, as it is, and history is any guide, then Claire McCaskill will win by 1-2%, and that's my current prediction.

Virginia: On a similar note, I already mentioned in my last revision that Democrats have overperformed the polling in Virginia since the mid 90s. Now, Webb is actually polling ahead in 3 of the last 4 real polls (and in the faux Zogby poll as well, fwiw). Is this a backlash to the misguided attack on Webb's bestsellers? Maybe, or even probably in my view. Whatever the case may be, my current prediction is that Webb ekes out the win.

Tennessee: Not only has Ford's campaign seemingly faltered in the polling and on the ground, but the so-called 15% rule is actually getting some buzz. For the record, a lot of the media imbeciles have mistated the 15% rule. It is not that 15% of the voters say they'll vote for the black candidate but don't, and it is not that 15% of all those who say that they'll vote for the black candidate won't. The so-called 15% rule claims that 15% of whites who tell pollsters they will vote for the black candidate actually don't. Anyhow, that combined with Corker's lead in five of the last six polls puts Tennessee into Lean GOP.

[Mike Bates]

Related:
What a Democratic victory will mean

[Terpfen]

He wouldn't. He'd kill the candidates and attempt to take over for himself.

[pabianice]

I have a strong suspicion that President Bush will not veto any legislation except those that directly impact on the War on Terror. Remember in the last almost six years he has only vetoed one bill even though many have come up which he did not approve of.

He didn't want to veto a bill from a Repub congress. If the lunatics start running the asylum he will have no such restraints.

[Torie]

Your gut follows my gut. The Dems have close to a 50% chance of winning six seats now. The only reason that it is not over 50%, is that it is under 50% that the Dems will win both Missouri and Virginia, even though they have a slight edge in both.

[nutmeg]

ping!

Please FReepmail me if you want on or off my ‘miscellaneous’ ping list.

[AntiGuv]

Opps! That should've been 10/31 prediction, not 10/30. Anyhow, moving right along to my Governor ratings (yes, I know this is a Congress thread, sorry!) there have been quite a few significant changes since last week.

Safe Democratic

Arizona
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York* (R)
Ohio* (R)
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Wyoming

Likely Democratic

Arkansas* (R)
Colorado* (R)
Illinois
Kansas
Maine
Massachusetts* (R)
Pennsylvania

Lean Democratic

Iowa*
Maryland (R)
Michigan
Minnesota (R)
Oregon
Wisconsin

Toss Up

Alaska* (R)
Idaho* (R)

Lean Republican

Florida*
Nevada*
Rhode Island

Likely Republican

California
South Carolina
Texas
Vermont

Safe Republican

Alabama
Connecticut
Georgia
Hawaii
Nebraska
South Dakota

10/31 Prediction: Dem net gain of 8 governor's mansions.

A few quick comments are in order here as well:

Ohio: In the last six polls Blackwell has trailed by 23% (CNN), 22% (Rasmussen), 30% (Survey USA), 20% (Mason-Dixon), 25% (CBS/NYT), and 27% (Quinnipiac). The fat lady is headed home for the night..

Illinois: Blagojevich is an unpopular crook but Ms RINO extraordinaire hasn't polled above 40% but once since April (a 10/10 Rasmussen poll that had Blago leading 50% to 43% - the subsequent Ras poll has Topinka back at 36%).

Maine: Despite Baldacci's similarly weak ratings, Woodcock's problem, aside from his unfortunate name, is that Mainers are not much averse to voting for 3rd Party and Indy candidates, and though well under 50% Baldacci has a solid double-digit margin.

Massachusetts: Only the aforementioned 15% rule keeps Mass out of Safe Dem, and for the record I apply that toward my assessment of the Maryland Senate contest as well. Yeah, I know I'm supposed to pretend it doesn't exist, except maybe in the occasional Southern race, but whatever.

Minnesota: Though very narrow for the most part, Hatch has registered a lead in the last five polls, which are all the polls taken in the month of October. Ergo, my rating guidelines compel a move to Lean Dem for Minnesota. I do think that any Hatch lead is still very soft, but I also think the edge is real and that the macro landscape favors its growing on Election Day. It seems MN is simply still too blue for the GOP incumbent who should win to win this year.

Oregon: On paper Saxton (R) should be winning, as I explained last week, but in reality he's only led in one poll all year long, and that was by 2% in a late Sept Riley Research poll. Now in the past week Riley Research gives Kulongoski (D) an 11% lead and Rasmussen gives him a 7% lead. It would seem that the Oregon situation is something of the anti-Minnesota: too blue for the Dem incumbent who should lose to lose.

Alaska: Palin (R) and Knowles (D) are now essentially tied in all three recent polls.

Idaho: Based on the one Mason-Dixon poll, the buzz in the media, the general pundit consensus, and finally in the tightness of the ID-01 race, it would seem that Idaho is now a Toss Up.

Ultimately I predict that one of the two Toss Ups goes Dem. I'd say flip a coin to choose which one. That plus the seven GOP-held governorships rated from Lead D to Safe D makes eight total. At this juncture, it looks highly unlikely to me that any of the Dem-held states will turn GOP.

[RobFromGa]

You are really a pessemist aren't you? I think you are way too trusting of these polls, and have no confidence in the GOP turnout efforts. I think you will be surprised at how much better things go for the GOP as compared with your doomsday predictions.

[Defender2]

CNN = Communists News Network!
CBS = Communists BULL Sh*t!
ABC = ALL BULLSH*T COMMUNISTS!
NBC = NOTHING BUT COMMUNISTS!
CNBC = COMMUNISTS, NOTHING BUT COMMUNISTS!
MSNBC = MATTHEWS SUCKS NOTHING BUT COMMUNISTS!
C-SPAN1 = Communists-Socialists Pandering *ssholes Network #1.!
C-SPAN2 = Communists-Socialists Pandering *ssholes Network #2!
BBC = Brainwashed Bullsh*t Communists!
ACLU =Anti-Christian Liberals Unhinged!

The Enemy Within Includes:

The demoCommiecRATic Party, the MSM(Including CNN), the New York Times (Correction: SLIMES) and Reuters....known 5th columnists....communists, socialists, terrorists and enemy's friends....terrorists lovers....the demoCommiecRATic Party, the MSM(including CNN), the New York SLIMES (Times) and Reuters performs fellatio with our enemies....the demoCommiecRATic Party, the MSM(including CNN), the New York Slimes and Reuters loves every communists, socialists, terrorists around....the New York SLIMES (Times) and Reuters....commie trash rags!:-(

The MSM's, the MSM(including CNN), the New York Slimes (Times), Reuters and the demoCommiecRATic Party's friends:

http://www.dsausa.org/dsa.html (Nancy Pelosi's organization)

democratic socialist members (Enemy Within) in Congress:

http://www.tysknews.com/Depts/gov_philosophy/dsa_members.htm

Some of Jack Murtha's and the demoCommiecRATic Party's work:

http://www.druglibrary.org/schaffer/GOVPUBS/gao/gao19.htm

This IS why we cannot let the 'RATS win in November, We Cannot Entrust the Defense of the United States to the demoCommiecRATS!!!! VOTE to keep the 'RATS OUT of Office!!!!


Fair Weather wichever way the wind blows FOX including Mr. whichever way the wind blows O'Reilly sometimes Rocks.

The Mighty MAJA RUSHIE, Rush Limbaugh, Rules the Airwaves and FRee Republic IS the Best NEWS Network!!!!:-)

D2

[Clintonfatigued]

There is one advantage of pessimism regarding the election. It makes election night fun, even if it doesn't go well.

[AntiGuv]

You are really a pessemist aren't you?

Yes, I really think that this year will be a reverse 1994. Actually, I think this year will be more anti-GOP than 1994 was anti-Dem, except that the GOP has fewer vulnerable seats at every level, and so the GOP losses should be narrower. And on that note, I'll wrap up with my House predictions with a week to go.

First, lemme note that this isn't what I'd call a 'full revision' since last week. In a full revision I take each of my ratings criteria in sequence and then look at each House race one-by-one based on my criteria. This week I've merely taken the list of polls since last week, as well as the list of independent expenditures (mostly by party committees) and looked at those given races to see if a ratings change is warranted. My actual final revision will be this weekend, and then I'll make a prediction as well (the dilemma there is whether to predict a 'normal' election or a 'wave' election).

Anyhow, here goes with the GOP-held seats!

Lean Democratic

01 (TX-22) DeLay*
02 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
03 (PA-10) Sherwood
04 (IN-08) Hostettler
05 (NY-24) Boehlert*
06 (CO-07) Beauprez*
07 (PA-07) Weldon
08 (OH-15) Pryce
09 (IA-01) Nussle*
10 (PA-06) Gerlach
11 (FL-16) Foley*
12 (NC-11) Taylor

Toss Up

13 (IN-02) Chocola
14 (CT-02) Simmons
15 (NM-01) Wilson
16 (OH-18) Ney*
17 (IN-09) Sodrel
18 (CT-04) Shays
19 (WI-08) Green*
20 (OH-01) Chabot
21 (FL-13) Harris*
22 (CT-05) Johnson<<
23 (VA-02) Drake
24 (WA-08) Reichert
25 (NY-26) Reynolds
25 (IL-06) Hyde*
27 (NY-29) Kuhl
28 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
29 (WY-AL) Cubin
30 (MN-06) Kennedy*
31 (KY-04) Davis
32 (NY-20) Sweeney
33 (FL-22) Shaw
34 (AZ-05) Hayworth

Lean Republican

35 (NY-25) Walsh
36 (ID-01) Otter*
37 (KY-03) Northup
38 (MN-01) Gutknecht
39 (NH-02) Bass
40 (AZ-01) Renzi
41 (NV-03) Porter
42 (OH-12) Tiberi<<
43 (CA-11) Pombo
44 (CO-04) Musgrave
45 (PA-04) Hart
46 (NY-19) Kelly
47 (OH-02) Schmidt
48 (NV-02) Gibbons*
49 (IL-10) Kirk
50 (NC-08) Hayes
51 (IA-02) Leach
52 (VA-10) Wolf
53 (NY-03) King
54 (CO-05) Hefley*
55 (NJ-07) Ferguson
56 (TX-23) Bonilla
57 (NE-03) Osborne*
58 (CA-04) Doolittle

Likely Republican

59 (WA-05) McMorris
60 (NE-01) Fortenberry
61 (IN-03) Souder
62 (FL-08) Keller
63 (CA-50) Bilbray
64 (KY-02) Lewis
65 (KS-02) Ryun
66 (MN-02) Kline
67 (MI-08) Rogers
68 (OH-14) LaTourette
69 (IL-11) Weller
70 (FL-09) Bilirakis*

And here are the Dem-held seats. We can celebrate the return of a Toss Up category here. :)

Toss Up

01 (GA-08) Marshall
02 (IL-08) Bean

Lean Democratic

03 (WV-01) Mollohan
04 (VT-AL) Sanders(I)*
05 (GA-12) Barrow
06 (IA-03) Boswell
07 (LA-03) Melancon
08 (OR-05) Hooley

Likely Democratic

09 (IN-07) Carson
10 (IL-17) Evans*
11 (SC-05) Spratt
12 (TX-17) Edwards
13 (CO-03) Salazar
14 (NC-13) Miller
15 (LA-02) Jefferson
16 (KS-03) Moore

[AntiGuv]

Oh, I forgot to post my Halloween prediction on the House races. In keeping with my current two-tier forecast methodology, I am predicting a Dem net gain of either 21 seats or 42 seats, as follows.

In a "normal" election 22 GOP-held seats are predicted to go Dem while the GOP is predicted to pick off either the Marshall seat (GA-08) or the Bean seat (IL-08) with the former most likely.

In a "wave" election many of the otherwise narrow GOP holds fall to the Dems like bowling pins, and the predicted net change is 42 GOP seats going Dem. Some states are also implicitly indicated to be more vulnerable to an election wave, most notably OH and NY.

And while I'm at it, here's my Watch List of GOP seats for one last time:

Watch List

71 (IA-03) Latham
72 (VA-05) Goode
73 (MI-09) Knollenberg
74 (NH-01) Bradley
75 (IL-14) Hastert
76 (NY-13) Fossella
77 (WV-02) Capito
78 (LA-07) Boustany
79 (MD-06) Bartlett
80 (MI-07) Schwarz*
81 (CO-06) Winter
82 (MT-AL) Lindeen
83 (AR-03) Boozman
84 (FL-24) Feeney

I post that only because some political junkies, if they're as obsessed as me, might be entertained by it. All those seats are officially rated Safe GOP.

There isn't really a Watch List anymore of Dem-held seats, because it's no longer plausible that the election could swing all the way around in such a short timeframe, but if I did have one the seats included would be: AR-02, PA-12, UT-02, and WA-02.

[ripley]

if the democrats sweep the whole ball of wax they are going to be arrogant, swaggering sc%mb*gs instead of just arrogant sc%mb*gs.