Jus like 2 years ago this campaign is an emotional roller coaster. Numbers are changing constantly. One minute I think we might win then the next we get another batch of bad numbers. I try to remain optimistic but not all these polls can be wrong. We've just go to hope the GOP turns out more than the bad guys do of their voters.
I am with you. I read the arguments here as to why the polls are baloney. But here is my problem with them. The same factors that allegedly made the polls garbage existed when someone like Allen was ahead August-October. For the polls to suddenly be showing Webb ahead under the same conditions, however flawed, says to me that the polls are picking up a trend. Which means, as you say, that turn-out will be critical.
Of course it is also possible that the trend represents a response to one or more factors that will abate before Election Day. The fickleness of the electorate never ceases to amaze me.