Posted on 10/29/2006 9:24:34 PM PST by rhinohunter
On Monday President Bush flies into Houston to campaign for a congressional candidate who — at one point — looked like a long shot.
But an exclusive poll indicates that Shelley Sekula-Gibbs may pull off a political upset and win her write-in campaign for Congress.
(Excerpt) Read more at khou.com ...
Any spelling even close -- such as Gibbs or Shelly -- counts.
This is your #1 most likely to lose seat-- maybe we can pull it off.
I have lived in both TX 9 and TX 22, and beleive me, I don't think the voters in 22 have any inkling of how liberal Lampson is. If he does win, it'll be one term.
I've been following you and Rovian's posts. You might find things still not decided the morning after election day if another thread is correct about absentee ballots. 1/4 of all votes in the election could be absentee and it could take days and days to count those---and give the lawyers all the time they need to muddy the waters.
I lived in Katy, TX for 22 years, and Sugarland is FAR from liberal. A whole lotta successful folks live in that area and do not want to donate their hard-earned income to Scrappleface Pelosi.
Your list of losses is yesterday's picture of the races.
Eight days to go.
Too early to tell in the red State of Indiana and the Republican districts in Florida. You are discounting GOTV completely.
If she wins, it will be due in part to Governor Rick Perry. He scheduled a special election for Delay's old seat concurrent with the general election. Sekula-Gibb's name is on the special election -- and I think it is right next to the general election which requires a write-in. Those that forgot to bring in that sheet of paper will have her name spelled properly within sight of the write-in slot.
A small thing? Yes -- but this will be a battle of inches.
I have another theory, Pluto, based on human nature: because Gibb's name is challenging, instead of being "Jones," it is going to help her. People will concentrate on it, and take up the challenge.
After all, conservatives ain't stupid.
The ground game folks should print off a buzzillion slips of paper with her name on it and give one to every voter in the district. just copy it down in the write in area. heck some dems might do it.
Karl Rove says we WIN. That's good enough for me. All of these Polls mean nothing. They can be slanted to say anything. Rove sees the REAL INTERNALS. He's confident we will win. My money goes on Rove's prediction! He hasn't been wrong yet!
The latest Zogby poll puts Lampson up by 8 but there is a huge undecided figure - 25%. If Sekula-Gibbs can attract most of those, and if they can handle the write-in process without screwing up, then she can win. But she's bucking history, the list of successful write-in candidates is very sparce. Almost anything can invalidate their ballot.
NPR and dems. in general have forgotten who the voters are in this district. Overwhelmingly conservative people. Who can spell. And WILL show up to vote. Broken glass Republicans who think Delay was railroaded. I think she stands a great chance of winning it. I hope Lampson gets his a** handed to him.
I hope you are wrong, too.
some points:
I wonder why people are so willing to believe that after the 2000 redistricting we have so many 'shaky' open R districts. That is illogical to me.
Do we have so many open seats because Congressmen who were first elected in 1994 are honoring their pledge to retire after 12 years? How many Dem held seats are open this year?
We will hold Foley's district and DeLay's district.
Shelley Gibbs is easy. If she loses its because she decided to be a feminist and hyphenate her stupid name.
IMO hypenated names should be illegal. Pick a name and live with it.
I refuse to concede Fl13,16,NY26, OH15, PA6, Sodrel in IN and Shays in CT
I saw his ads on tv last night. What is with the NRA supporting him? I love how he tries to paint himself to look like a conservative. My husband had no idea he was so liberal and was amazed that the ads could be so deceptive.
We will win FL-16. With the court ruling that will clearly spell out that you need to vote for Foley to vote for Negron, Negron should win. I think the democrats trying to fight that common-sense rule will hurt them with the republicans that make up a majority of that district.
Name the 18 seats that you are confident the democrats will take away from Republicans.
This stupid list is going around on FR as if it is a sure thing that is going to happen. The democrats will be very lucky if they pick a maximum of 10 seats from this list.
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