Posted on 10/28/2006 12:50:44 PM PDT by StJacques
Battle For the House of Representatives
Republican Seats
Lean Dem (8)
Toss Up (16)
Lean GOP (21)
Note: According to RealClearPolitics.com, no Democrat seats are in play.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
"I'm not worrying about 2008 yet. I want Conservative Judges - particularly on the Supreme Court. And I want Iraq to be a democratic country - united.
I would be very happy if Bush had enough political power to try again to fix Social Security.
No President can do much, but if Bush gets enough support in 2006 to do those things, I think he will be super successful."
Alas, only under best possible scenarios will Bush have as much help from Congress as he did in last 2 years.
"This is all just normal politics that is no different than the vast majority of other off year elections. 1994 was an aberration. That's not the norm. The norm is the party in power has more seats to defend and tends to lose some of them.
So relax. If the GOP loses 1-2 Senate seats and up to 10 House seats, it means the American people AGAIN indicate support for GOP policies and elected to return the GOP to power."
THAT IS THE GOOD SCENARIO.
The bad scenario is 20 seats lost, losing the Majority in the House, which in turn flips a lot of insitutional power over.
Moreover, losing too many governorships now wil influence the 2010 redistricting in ways that can influence how well we do in next 10 years ... example: Ohio, Colorado, etc.
In the 1980s, Reagan won majorities but had to deal with gerrymandered Democrat majorities and other institutional disadvantages... they reversed when we took the House and took many statehouses, like in the south and west.
If we lose that edge, it creates harder battles down the road. It also means that the "GOP realignment" we hoped for is not happening.
ONE BRIGHT SPOT IS CA. If Arnold stays as Gov and returns again in 2010, we can expect a fairer shake on CA redistricting ... we are screwed out of 5-10 seats in that state alone.
"RCP has FL16 (Foley/Negron) in the lean democrat column. I have been working on this campaign for the last week, and I can tell you that we have a better chance in this district than we do in FL13 (Harris/Buchanan). FL13 experienced a grueling, bitter primary, a primary that has negatively impacted the GOP base in the district. President Bush stumped for Vern last Wednesday in Sarasota because Vern's numbers are sagging. If I had to guess, I would say that State Representative Joe Negron (FL16) has a better chance at victory. I was at the Palm Beach County Supervisors Office (had to go through security as if I were going on an international flight, complete with magnetron) on the first day of early voting, and the large precinct was overflowing with voters, hispanic (Cuban) voters. Negron's voters had turned out in droves."
That's encouraging ... and BTW - BRAVO AND KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK AT RETAINING A SEAT TO KEEP THE HOUSE OUT OF PELOSI'S HANDS....
if we can keep Foley's old seat, it at least gives encouragement that other seats at risk due to foleygate - Pryce in OH and Reynolds in NY - are hopeful retentions.
Last I checked RCP, Reynolds is up in polls, but Pryce is down. Pryce won in 2004 with 60% of the vote, but the seat is marginal GOP-wise.
"Never doubt a Roveian October surprise."
Waiting for Roveian magic is like waiting for WMDs to show up in Iraq.
The only 'surprise' is that WE WOULD WIN IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD ON THE REAL ISSUES:
(1) The fact that Republican policies have helped produce jobs and helped make our economy strong and growing
(2) The fact that Republicans are serious and correct in analyzing and fighting the war on islamo-fascist terrorism.
(3) The fact that the Democrat leaders in the House are out of touch with mainstream American values.
What help has Bush had in the last 2 years? I never noticed much.
The best he has had, and the best he can do for the next two years, is to have Committee chairmen who will pass his bills and his nominees out of committee for floor votes. That requires a GOP majority in both Houses - even if it's just one vote.
"That was in 1994, and was due to the brand-new but entirely legal donations shifting process that Speaker Gingrich installed in that election."
Hmmmm... You DO realize that the Kos kids have picked up on the idea of getting the 'wellfunded' Congresscritter to help out the candidates in the 50 tough races?
If there reversals, I'd go with the IN Carson seat. Or Mac Collins. or McSweeney v Bean. possible pickups like Van Taylor v Chet Edwards look longshot
... so just as likely NOTA. GOP is totally on defense.
In the Senate, Steele is looking good. Kean is close. Definitely a chance to blunt Dem gains in those 2 races.
"What help has Bush had in the last 2 years? I never noticed much."
Alito, Roberts on the USSC for one. Energy bill, bankruptcy reform, military funding (yes, the Dems will block even that!), the bill on military tribunals, Patriot Act renewal (yes, the Dems tried to kill even that!!!), the funding of the border security fence (Dems hated that), etc.
Drilling in ANWR and offshore (much needed but hated by eco-extremists),
That just scratches the surface ..
There is a list of GOP accomplishments that has been posted for the education of freepers who bought the lie that GOP Congress hasnt done much ..
"The best he has had, and the best he can do for the next two years, is to have Committee chairmen who will pass his bills and his nominees out of committee for floor votes. That requires a GOP majority in both Houses - even if it's just one vote."
John Bolton and many of the bottled up judicial nominees is a good example of why a *bare* majority is *NOT* enough. 51-50 means that every single time a RINO wets his pants we cant go forward. With 55 votes, Frist was able to get Alito and Roberts and many "controversial" lower court nominees through without a filibuster.
I'm afraid that 51 senators will be gridlock at best and RINO+Dem rule at worst.
You're right that a bare majority isn't enough. But the few successes that you cited are because they do have a bare majority.
A bare majority of the GOP beats a bare majority of Dems any day.
You're thinking of TX-17, represented by Chet Edwards. He won with 51% of the vote while Bush was winning with 70% of the vote! Bush isn't on the ballot and he's not as popular there as he was in 2004-- the case all over the country. It's not a competitive race. The NRCC doesn't even see it as worthy of spending money on (and Edwards has a nice lead in cash, so the money from the NRCC would be helpful to Van Taylor, the opponent). Taylor was a recruit for that race. He's not even from there.
Yeah, that's the one - thanks - doesn't look promising - I'll keep looking......
I think the facts are quite sobering. Denial or revisionism does not change facts.
A possibility. Harold's doper brother is running as an independent against a Marxist (Steve Cohen, the Democrat nominee). The Fords are just trying to keep this open for Jr. or another family member to re-take the seat in '08 after Jr. has lost this Senate race.
Exactly who are you to be telling ANYBODY to leave this forum, especially somebody who has been here YEARS longer than you have, bud.
And that "quisling" remark is a DEAD GIVEAWAY that you're a retread. Dumb.
Six to Seven years ago Canadians and Europeans came into Yahoo chats and USENET masking themselves as Americans and tried to sway our elections towards the democrats.
Most outside the USA NEVER liked republicans. They were not big fans of the USA either.
I agree. That should be dont in the primaries
That is what Rove was saying about superior GOP Turnout! I
hope it is true! There are a lot of races within 5%. If the GOP holds on to both houses in the midst of an unpoular war heads will roll at the Dems.
Get off your hig hose howlin. You have said much worse on this blog, and do not deny it.
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