Could Jersey Go Red

NY Metro ^ | 10.30.06 | John Heilemann

[Coleus]

Control of the Senate could turn on one of the bluest states—and one of the nastiest races—in the country. And Jon Corzine is sweating it.

• By John Heilemann

Illustration by Darrow  

T he yarmulkes are out in force in Sopranos country. At Temple Beth Shalom in Livingston, New Jersey, a crowd of several hundred (chosen) people have gathered for what’s been billed as a “Senatorial Candidates Forum.” Not that the candidates—Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican Tom Kean Jr.—share even a fleeting moment together on the synagogal stage. In two recent debates, Menendez and Kean have flayed each other loudly, witlessly, and endlessly: the latter calling the former a craven hack and possibly a crook; the former calling the latter a shameless liar and lapdog to George W. Bush. And so the sponsors of tonight’s event have decreed that the candidates appear sequentially—in the hope, apparently, of preserving some semblance of civility and decorum in a place of worship.

Amazingly, it kinda-sorta works. Both Menendez, a longtime congressman chosen last year by Governor Jon Corzine to fill his freshly vacant Senate seat, and Kean, a state senator and scion of one of New Jersey’s most revered political families, take the occasional shot at “my opponent.” But their tone is notably subdued. What the Temple Beth Shalom crowd gets instead of vitriol is a Democrat chanting, “I believe the country is headed in the wrong direction” and “We must change course in Iraq”—followed by a Republican desperately straining to talk about something, anything, else.  What the crowd gets, in other words, is a stark illustration of the dynamic playing out in campaigns across the country. Except for one large difference. Here, it seems, the tide isn’t surging hard in the Democrat’s direction. Here the Republican is holding his own, and the national GOP is noticing. Suddenly, faced with rapidly dimming prospects in states such as Ohio, the party is considering a major shift of money and manpower to New Jersey. Here it sees the possibility of a pickup—a potentially decisive one.

At the start of the year, raising such a possibility would have got you dismissed in political circles as either drunk or dreaming. True, there were those in Washington—not least Chuck Schumer, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee—who counseled Corzine to bypass Menendez and select as his successor acting governor Richard Codey (who, with a 61 percent approval rating, was the state’s most popular Democrat). True, there were worries about ethical clouds around Menendez, whose position as boss of the notoriously dodgy Hudson County Democratic machine made him powerful and suspect in equal measure.   But for Corzine, Menendez’s long association with the machine made him more, not less, attractive. He had the perfect Democratic résumé. Up from nothing. Staunchly liberal. Latino. A prodigious fund-raiser. This was the kind of guy Corzine was supposed to pick—and so, dutifully, he picked him. Besides, how far wrong could he go? New Jersey was among the most reliably true-blue states in the country. It hadn’t elected a Republican senator since 1972, for chrissakes.

And yet all year long the Kean-Menendez race has been nip and tuck. Last week, a Rasmussen poll put Menendez ahead, 42-39, while a Zogby Interactive survey gave the edge to Kean, 47-45. (Both results were within the respective polls’ margins of error.) Schumer concedes that New Jersey is the one Democratic-held Senate seat where the party’s position is precarious. Although he adds, “We believe we have the ability on defense should [the GOP] put a lot of money into one state, particularly a blue state.”  That may be true, but the real question is why the Democrats are playing defense in New Jersey in the first place. The answer comes in three parts.  First, like a lot of allegedly deep-blue states (and supposedly bright-red ones, too), New Jersey isn’t actually as monochromatic as the Washington smart guys assume. For years, voters in the state who identify themselves as independents have outnumbered both Democrats and Republicans. And they’ve never been hesitant to elect a certain kind of Republican—the Tom Kean Sr. kind, the Christie Todd Whitman kind—to statewide office.

Which leads to the second point. As a candidate, Tom Kean Jr. has any number of glaring weaknesses. He looks like he’s about 16 and has a callow, glib affect and Bush-like smirk that make you want to slap him silly. (Asked at Temple Beth Shalom about weaning America off its dependency on foreign oil, he declares, “I can tell you that, in my personal life, I drive a hybrid car!”) But Kean is also, well, a Kean, and thus benefits by association with his father’s reputation for probity and moderation. His lineage gives him extra oomph when he talks, as he often does, about the importance of fully implementing the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission (of which Kean Sr. was, of course, chairman). And it gives him extra credibility when he paints himself as a pro-choice, pro-environment centrist.    Page 1  2  Next

[yldstrk]

Hey! That'd be a heck of a development!

[pissant]

Kean would make it light pink at best.

[Alberta's Child]

And they’ve never been hesitant to elect a certain kind of Republican—the Tom Kean Sr. kind, the Christie Todd Whitman kind—to statewide office.

Oh, please. New Jersey has two Democratic U.S. senators (and hasn't had a Republican in one of these positions in years), a Congressional delegation with a Democratic majority, Democratic majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and some of the most corrupt (Bob Torricelli), weirdest (Jon Corzine, the governor from the 1890s) and (pardon my French) most f#cked-up (Jim McGreevey) people on the planet serving in statewide office.

This place is beyond redemption.

[no dems]

it gives him extra credibility when he paints himself as a pro-choice, pro-environment centrist.

Credibility with whom?

[Question_Assumptions]

They really over-estimate how "blue" New Jersey is. Do they need to be reminded that then-unknown Christy Whitman almost defeated the very popular Bill Bradley in 1990 with 47% of the vote and that during the reign of Jim "Dump" Florio, the Republicans gained veto-proof majorities in both houses of the state legislature in 1991 and took the governor's seat in 1993. Yes, the New Jersey RINOs largely squandered their victory but it's hardly a Democrat lock.

[Alberta's Child]

Christie Whitman was so freaking liberal that she may as well have been a Democrat. The last time anyone even remotely resembling a conservative won a statewide race in this state was when George Bush (41) won New Jersey in 1988.

[concerned about politics]

Could Jersey Go Red

Oh, please. New Jersey has two Democratic U.S. senators (and hasn't had a Republican in one of these positions in years)

The NJ court just dictated homo marriage rights on the poor people of that state. That's a huge plus for the right wing.

[Alberta's Child]

(This was posted on another thread last night, and I think it's worth re-posting here . . .)

Trust me on this one -- and I say this as a New Jersey voter . . .

The best scenario on election day would be one in which the GOP retains control of the Senate and loses this race. This is exactly what happened in 2002 when Lautenberg replaced Torricelli after the ballot deadline had passed.

The last thing this country needs is any influence within the majority party in Washington from this state. New Jersey currently sends far more tax revenue to Washington than it gets back in Federal appropriations, and as this place gets more and more crowded with misfits from New York City, immigrants (legal and illegal alike) from every Third World rat-hole on the planet, and neurotic, self-obsessed homosexuals (in light of yesterday's New Jersey supreme court ruling), I say let's keep it that way.

[Question_Assumptions]

I was addressing the issue of Republican and Democrat, not conservative and liberal. Kean is pretty liberal, too. But if it keeps the Senate in the hands of Republicans for the next Supreme Court nominee, I'll take a Kean victory over a Menendez victory. That, and I really want to torment Lautenberg by making sure the Democratss are the minority party.

[Alberta's Child]

I'm sure Lautenberg has been wishing he never got back into politics since the day after that 2002 election. Nothing would torment Lautenberg more than having Menendez sitting next to him in a GOP-controlled Senate. If Kean wins, Lautenberg at least has a fighting chance of getting some Federal money for a big project in New Jersey -- with all the ribbon-cutting ceremonies and photo ops that go with it.

[Romney08]

The last thing this country needs is any influence within the majority party in Washington from this state.

Maybe, but I'm sure Kean wouldn't support judicial filibusters. That's about the only good Chaffee is to the GOP as well. I've been very pleased with the appointments of Roberts and Alito to the Supreme Court.

[oceanview]

Kean Jr, for all his faults, would make a more reliable R senator then Lincoln Chafee. and an opportunity to jettison Menendez, a truly corrupt politico, is too important to pass up just because people are fretting about the "RINOS".

[Question_Assumptions]

Fair point. But since we aren't certain that the Republicans are going to hold the Senate without winning New Jersey, I'm going to go with voting for Kean. Republians can afford to lose the House. We need the Senate for confirmations and the more Republicans, the better, even if they are RINOs.

[oceanview]

in a 50/50 senate, it is not beyond the pale that Chafee would do a Jeffords. Kean would not in my opinion, he would stay with his party.

[Alberta's Child]

Oh, I agree with you -- which is why I'm adamant about the GOP retaining control of the Senate regardless of who ends up on their side of the aisle. But there's really no difference between a 52-seat GOP Senate with Kean and a 51-seat GOP Senate without him.

[Unam Sanctam]

This blue/red thing is unfortunately reversed from what it should be -- the liberals should be red, for socialism, while the conservatives should be true blue.

[Lancey Howard]

The best scenario on election day would be one in which the GOP retains control of the Senate and loses this race.

Agreed. Kean is beyond holding your nose. He's a Jeffords/Chafee waiting to happen. A win by that little weasel would only embolden other scumbag liberal Republicans. The GOP does not need another liberal Republican Senator. At least a Democrat will stab you in the front.

[Kuksool]

I suspect Kean would emulate the ME sisters, if Chafee lost. However, should Chafee survive, I imagine Chafee & Kean would be causing mischief for the next 6 years.

[Neverforget01]

Jersey go red? Maybe when hell freezes over. Whitman won because Florio over taxed and Bradley was dull as dirt.

NJ tolerated the slickest political move ever when Dems illegally (according to NJ election law) yanked the Torch and actually voted for Lautenberg. If it didn't go red after that move, it never will.