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Control of Senate hinges on four races (David Espo / AP Alert!)
AP on Yahoo ^ | 10/27/06 | David Espo - ap

Posted on 10/27/2006 7:33:23 PM PDT by NormsRevenge

RICHMOND, Va. - With designs on the White House, Republican Sen. George Allen (news, bio, voting record) hoped all along his 2006 Virginia re-election campaign would draw national attention. But what he probably didn't have in mind was a stumble-marred race that is so close his party recently felt obliged to pay for $1.4 million in television ads to safeguard a seat long thought safe.

Allen's attempt to hold off Democratic challenger Jim Webb is one of four races that strategists in both parties say will likely settle the overall battle for Senate control. In a reflection of the stakes, the two parties will spend more than $20 million combined on television in the campaign's final two weeks in Tennessee, Missouri, New Jersey and Virginia, a lineup that could not have been forecast even a few weeks ago.

"A year ago the focus was on the more traditionally competitive states like Pennsylvania and Ohio," Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, head of the Democratic campaign effort, said recently, referring to two races where Democrats appear likeliest to defeat Republican incumbents.

"It is a tougher (election) cycle for Republicans," agreed Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, head of the GOP campaign arm.

Democrats must gain six seats to win control, and have strong leads in Rhode Island and Montana as well as Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Strategists in both parties calculated long ago that Missouri's race would be close, with state auditor Claire McCaskill challenging first-term Sen. Jim Talent (news, bio, voting record). With a statewide initiative on the ballot, it's also been clear for months that the issue of embryonic stem cell research would figure prominently. Talent opposes the expansion of federally funded efforts in a field that scientists say holds promise for the treatment of many diseases.

Controversy flared after McCaskill's campaign aired a television commercial in which actor Michael J. Fox, who has Parkinson's disease, exhibited the uncontrollable shaking that is symptomatic of the illness.

"They say all politics is local, but it's not always the case. What you do in Missouri matters to millions of Americans — Americans like me," Fox says in the ad.

Tennessee seemed an unlikely place for a pivotal race, but GOP strategists say Democratic Rep. Harold Ford (news, bio, voting record) Jr., hoping to become the first black elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction, has proven to be an excellent candidate.

The Republican, former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, stumbled after winning his nomination, and the state's two GOP senators, Bill Frist and Lamar Alexander, helped engineer a campaign shake-up.

The contest has grown closer in the weeks since, and strategists in both parties say the outcome may ultimately hinge on race — whether a hidden bias against blacks will ultimately doom Ford's chances.

The issue exploded into public view in recent days when a Republican Party-financed ad showed a white woman saying she had met Ford at a Playboy Club party. The commercial ends with the woman, her bare shoulders visible, looking into the camera and whispering, "Harold, call me."

The commercial does not mention that Ford is black, but it drew strong criticism from Democrats and their allies who said it evoked deep-seated prejudices about interracial dating. "In a Southern state like Tennessee, some stereotypes still exist," said Hilary Shelton of the NAACP.

Republicans say Corker has gained ground in the polls since the ad began running.

No Republican has been elected to the Senate from New Jersey since 1972, and appointed Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez has led state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., in many public polls. But GOP strategists decided in recent days that the race was their best hope in the country for capturing a seat in Democratic hands.

Kean has sought to link Menendez to corruption in his home base of Hudson County, and the Democrat has sought to deflect the attacks.

Menendez has accused Kean of backing President Bush's war policies in Iraq, and the Republican challenger says he would have voted to authorize the military invasion in 2002 if he had been in Congress. At the same time, he has criticized the administration's handling of the conflict, and called for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to resign.

Even in early summer, Virginia seemed an exceedingly safe seat for the Republicans — so much so that Allen had spent part of his time out of state seeking early support for the 2008 presidential race.

His comments on Iraq betrayed no concern about the impact on his candidacy. "We win, they lose and there's no substitute for victory," he told a New Hampshire audience in March.

Webb, a former Republican who served as Navy Secretary under President Reagan in the 1980s, opposed the war in Iraq even before it began.

But as recently as September, Allen suggested in an interview that a U.S. retreat in Iraq might prompt the Communist Chinese government to menace Taiwan, the island republic.

Now his tone is different.

"The situation there is one that needs adjustments, that needs changes in tactics. We need to adapt to the situation on the ground," he said earlier this month.

Republican strategists say that Bush's low approval ratings and dissatisfaction with the war have made it harder for Allen to regain lost ground. But at their core, his troubles are self-inflicted.

In a span of a few weeks this summer, he called a volunteer for Webb, a young man of Indian descent, "macaca." He bristled at a campaign debate when asked whether he had Jewish ancestry, then issued a statement saying his mother had told him earlier that her father was Jewish.

Allegations surfaced from a former college teammate, Ken Shelton, who said Allen had frequently used a racial slur to describe blacks, and had once stuffed a deer head into a mailbox belonging to a black family.

Allen flatly denied the deer head story, but was equivocal on past use of the racial slur. The word was not "part of my vocabulary," he said.

"George Allen has exposed a part of himself that is repulsive to people," State Sen. Ed Houck said in September, as the first-term senator struggled to regain his political footing. "It's helped open the door for Jim Webb."

Suddenly, the challenger shed his identity as a second-tier candidate. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and former President Clinton visited the state for him. Gov. Tim Kaine and former Gov. Mark Warner became frequent campaign companions. For the three months ending Sept. 30, Webb raised more money than Allen.

First Allen, then the Republican Senate committee, hit back with ads designed to undermine Webb's appeal to women voters.

A party-paid ad now running recalls a 15-year-old Navy scandal known as Tailhook. "Eighty-three women assaulted. Jim Webb? He called this scandal a witchhunt and a feminist plot," says the announcer.

"The same Jim Webb who declared the Naval Academy a horny woman's dream and women psychologically unfit for combat."

Webb has said those remarks long ago stopped reflecting his views on women in combat.

On Friday, Allen drew attention to sexually explicit excerpts from Webb's novels from the past 30 years, arguing the words were demeaning to women. In response, Webb noted a 2000 book by Allen's sister, Jennifer, that described her brother's crude and brutish treatment of women.


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2006; hinges; senate
Go Deep?

Oh, I will. ;-)

Sen. George Allen, R-Va., pretends to throw a pumpkin
during an unscheduled campaign stop with President Bush,
not shown, in Richmond, Va. in this Oct. 19, 2006
file photo. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak, File)

1 posted on 10/27/2006 7:33:24 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
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To: NormsRevenge
As BoB Beckel said earlier on H&C,, Republicans are running from the President.

Thanks for that insight, Bob!

President Bush, right, campaigns for Sen. George Allen, R-Va., in Richmond, Va. in this Oct. 19, 2006 file photo. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak, File)

2 posted on 10/27/2006 7:35:35 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ...... http://www.pendleton8.com/ ...... http://www.bootmurtha.com/ .. FRee Moooomia)
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To: NormsRevenge

Thank God Jim Webb keeps putting his...well, his FOOT in his mouth.


3 posted on 10/27/2006 7:35:39 PM PDT by D.P.Roberts
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To: NormsRevenge

THe RNC came in because the DSCC came in, and the RNC can run ads responding without having to tie the candidates to the ads. There are some things the RNC wants to say that the candidate might not want to say.

Webb had 3rd-party groups to make all his false charges on body armor, so he could run more positive ads.


4 posted on 10/27/2006 8:04:52 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: D.P.Roberts

But remember, Allen said racist things and was rumored to have stuffed a horse head in black people's mailboxes. Since Webb's now been shown to have said sexist things, I'm curious why the rumor hasn't spread about where he stuffed a horse head...


5 posted on 10/27/2006 8:06:15 PM PDT by LibertarianInExile (When personal character isn't relevant to voters or party leaders, Foley happens.)
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To: NormsRevenge

Menendez has accused Kean of backing President Bush's war policies in Iraq

The HORROR! The HORROR! The HORROR!


6 posted on 10/27/2006 8:35:28 PM PDT by Valin (http://www.irey.com/)
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To: LibertarianInExile

...."But remember, Allen said racist things and was rumored to have stuffed a horse head in black people's mailboxes. Since Webb's now been shown to have said sexist things, I'm curious why the rumor hasn't spread about where he stuffed a horse head..."....

Ok, I will play. I will state the obvious. Because perhaps the MSM are total LIBS?

I mean these are people that think that it is ok for Barney Fag - oops -I mean Frank, to run a gay prostitution operation from his basement. Not a harsh word to be heard from the MSM. (He is really a great liberal HERO!) But Foley (admitedly a slime) writes a freakin' e-mail to some kid over 18 and all republican's must be removed from office?

Wow, the MSM is really fair and balanced!


7 posted on 10/27/2006 8:41:16 PM PDT by Mtner77
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To: fieldmarshaldj

A biased article, but with some useful information.


8 posted on 10/27/2006 9:11:40 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Nihilism is at the heart of Islamic culture)
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To: Clintonfatigued

I cannot believe we had Elizabeth Dole in charge of the Senate campaigns this year. We need ruthless people for such a position... (then, of course, Mitch McConnell pulled a boner himself back in '98).


9 posted on 10/27/2006 9:17:08 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Elizabeth Dole was chosen for her celebrity and star power. It seemed like a good idea at the time.


10 posted on 10/27/2006 9:19:53 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Nihilism is at the heart of Islamic culture)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Liddy is too ladylike. She was chosen, because she semi-managed the campaigns of Burr and Coburn in 2004. Plus, the other GOP Senators thought Liddy, being a woman, knew how to broaden the GOP's appeal with soccer moms. with hindsight, Liddy was a mistake. But then again, would Norm Coleman done better?


11 posted on 10/27/2006 9:21:43 PM PDT by Kuksool (Design your Own Polls. Go Vote and Take a Few Others With You)
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To: Clintonfatigued; Kuksool; AuH2ORepublican

The thing is, I'm not sure any sitting Senator can truly devote enough time and energy to the mechanics of overseeing 33/34 Senate races in each cycle. Perhaps it would be better to select a non-member that can be brought in to oversee these contests.


12 posted on 10/27/2006 9:45:42 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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