Polls undercount support for same-sex marriage ban

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 10/27/6 | Wyatt Buchanan

[SmithL]

Measures on 5 state ballots likely to pass despite survey results -

Proponents of measures to prohibit same-sex marriage say New Jersey's Supreme Court ruling that committed same-sex couples deserve the same rights as heterosexual couples will motivate voters to pass constitutional bans.

But most of the measures on the Nov. 7 ballot in eight other states already have strong voter support. In fact, they may be even farther ahead than they appear, because polling on the issue has been consistently and inexplicably inaccurate.

Same-sex marriage ban supporters and opponents agree that pre-election polls often undercount support for the measures.

Voters in 15 states have approved such bans since August 2004, and polls conducted before elections in seven of them underestimated the yes vote. (No polls were published in three of the states, and poll results in the other five were within the margin of error.)

Polls that underestimated support for the bans were off by as much as 19 percentage points in North Dakota and 7 to 16 percentage points in six other states.

"What it means is that if history is any guide, which I think it is, you have to subtract at least four percentage points from pre-election polls to get a more accurate reading of what the results are going to be on election day," said Matt Foreman, executive director of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force, a gay rights group working in opposition to the amendments.

Bans are expected to pass Nov. 7 in Idaho, Virginia, South Carolina, South Dakota and Tennessee. The races still appear close in Colorado, Arizona and Wisconsin.

Polls have been published on the proposed constitutional amendments in six of those states, and in all six, the most recent survey showed...

[SmithL]

Nov 8th will be a day of mourning in San Francisco.

[SmithL]

...and Wyatt is deeply saddened, too.

[phillyfanatic]

Let us pray that in NJ, many voters will realize that only the GOP stands for traditional values in spite of their many ethical warts over the last few years. The GOP still is the party of cultural values which support the historical America that the Founders wanted. Not the Dems.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

,i>because polling on the issue has been consistently and inexplicably inaccurate.

Ya think Dean is screaming right now that the cat is out of the bag and that we all know what GrandMaster Rove knew all along?

[Gingersnap]

I'm in Colorado and I'm voting against the gay thing. They shot themselves in the foot, really. I would have voted for the original domestic partnership issue because it covered everybody. Gays are always saying that it's not about marriage, it's about benefits and rights. Well, I believe that too.

The minute they changed over to "same-sex" language, they lost my vote. The old version would have covered elderly siblings and lifelong friends that share a home in retirement. The new version would only apply to sexual unions. Forget that.

[Mike Darancette]

If that stuff was written in Webb's diary we would have him arrested.

[Kuksool]

{they (polls) may be even farther ahead than they appear, because polling on the (gay marriage) issue has been consistently and inexplicably inaccurate.}

Perhaps, you have something about the MSM undersampling conservatives.

[JSDude1]

Are you talking about the 1 man, 1 woman marriage ammendment or the homos rights gay civil union intiative..?

[Heartofsong83]

If it was put on the ballot, it would pass in all 50 states.

[madprof98]

. . . polling on the issue has been consistently and inexplicably inaccurate . . .

Inexplicable? Nope, perfectly explicable. The relentless propaganda from the MSM has had some effect: it has convinced people who believe in decency and common sense that they had better keep their mouths shut or somebody will call them a bigoted homophobe. So they keep their mouths shut, but they still vote for what they believe in.

[Clump]

You got it right on the money.

[siunevada]

inexplicably inaccurate . . .

Unlike other political polling which is usually right on the money? Okay.

[little jeremiah]

Am running out the door. Looks interesting.

[Dilbert San Diego]

You got that right. People who are against homosexual marriage may not want to say that to a poll taker face-to-face or on the phone. But in the privacy of the voting booth, they will express that opinion.

The same concept happened when former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke won a seat in the Louisiana Legislature. He was behind in the polls, but won a solid victory on Election Day. I dislike Duke and the Klan; my only point is to show that polling doesn't always capture people's real opinions. People were reluctant to tell pollsters that they like David Duke due to his Klan background.

Not many wanted to admit voting for an ex-Klansman.