You are right. Add 3-4% to the R numbers. Because that's how much our turnout efforts have been worth for three election cycles now. The big thrust in the Old Media now is to demoralize the R activists so that we don't have volunteers to make the turnout effort work.
We use volunteers. The dems use paid workers and union goons who have "paid days off" from their jobs.
A friend of mine just got a union job. She has the day off, and is recruiting others to get out the vote that date. It is disgusting.