Posted on 10/23/2006 3:45:26 PM PDT by ElkGroveDan
Bad, bad news for Republicans. Gallup's generic ballot poll conducted Oct. 21-22, shows Democrats are in the lead — 49 percent to 46 percent. A lead this late means that they're almost certain to pick up seats, and that time is running out for... No, no, wait, that's from Oct. 21-22, 2002. Nevermind.
On the "Polling Weirdness" front, I give you the Florida governor's race, where State Attorney General Charlie Crist, the Republican, only leads U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, the Democrat 46 to 44 among likely voters, according to Quinnipiac...
Or Crist is winning a blowout, 54 percent to 36 percent, according to a poll conducted by The Cromer Group, a Washington-based Democratic firm.
Hm. It's either a 2 point lead, or an 18 point lead.
Looking elsewhere, some interesting numbers out of the Southwest today.
In J.D. Hayworth's race, a poll by a Democratic firm puts the incumbent only up by one. But the margin of error is five points, kinda large for my tastes. The only other poll this month has Hayworth up 3, so I suspect that Hayworth is up by single digits, less than he would like, but is still on track to keep his seat.
Then in the race some on the Corner are calling a belwether for control of the House, incumbent Republican Heather Wilson is down, 42 percent to 45 percent. But that's a dramatic improvement from a Survey USA poll last week that had her down 8, and an RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics one from earlier that had her down 8. My guess? Wilson's down but well within the margin of error and more than enough time to make up the gap. She's going to need every resource she can get, and the state GOP's get-out-the-vote efforts need to bring their A-game.
UPDATED AGAIN: A Sixers reader noted this - the RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics poll in Ohio's 15th District has men preferring the Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy to the Republican Deborah Pryce 55 percent to 40 percent?
I realize Pryce is seen as a particularly vulnerable incumbent, but the traditional GOP advantage with men not only disappeared, it reversed itself by 15 points? Either it's a wild, wacky year, or the polls in these House races are, despite pollsters' best efforts, picking up some odd samples.
That deserves repeating.
Excellent post!
BTTT
And THAT deserves some skepticism.
;-) Where the polling does not tally to 100% per race, the assumption has been to toss the undecideds to Dems. That's an easy one to ID. The other observation is that sampling can't be as reliable now that caller ID screens out so many attempts to poll. One poll got only 20% response, and who knows if that poll was doing better than others?
Check out my new tagline.
You would think that if the pollsters REALLY wanted to help the Dems, they would keep them 3-5 points DOWN so the Dems would stay energized to push across the finish line.
What does it tell you that the Dems need to hear that they are winning before they believe they might win?
Purely anecdotal, but the only people I know who do not have caller ID are very senior citizen, all but one lifelong, straight ticket democrats.
That may be, but there are a lot of conservative seniors.
Maybe some of it has to do with the fact that I always tell political pollsters the opposite of what I intend to do.
I don't believe the polls from where I live, so I wouldn't be surprised if they are wrong all over the country.
What relevance does a "generic" ballot have this late in the game? Why not poll specific races?
Too expensive to poll in many all (or even most) of all 435 districts.
11th Commandant: Put not your faith in polls, but vote.
People are lying to them.
This is very good news. If the Gallup is now just - 3, this means we are closing fast.
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