Posted on 10/21/2006 8:40:39 AM PDT by maquiladora
PLANS previously drafted by the Pentagon predict 52,000 US military casualties and one million civilian dead in the first 90 days of conflict if America attacked Pyongyang.
A report this week by US-based security and military analyst Stratfor predicts North Korea could return fire on Seoul with "several hundred thousand high-explosive rounds per hour" -- with up to 25 per cent of shells filled with nerve gas.
Other estimates say the US would need at least 500,000 ground troops to secure against a North invasion of the South.
"When US military planners have nightmares, they have nightmares about war with North Korea," the Stratfor analysis says.
Despite the risks, Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations expert Michael Levi, along with several Australian analysts, believe a North Korean nuclear test would increase the likelihood of a US military response.
Pentagon strategists continue to work on military contingencies but all scenarios forecast massive casualties and a high likelihood of escalating war.
When confronted with Pentagon drafts in 2004, US President George W. Bush was reported to have been horrified at the human cost. Updated Pentagon plans outlining bombing of North Korean nuclear sites, border artillery and troop emplacements call for:
ROUND-the-clock strikes using Stealth and Lancer aircraft and naval-launch cruise missiles to destroy nuclear and missile capability and set the research program back years.
AIR bombing, possibly including US tactical nuclear weapons, to penetrate metres-thick concrete protecting the North's nuclear research complex at Yonben.
But Stratfor's assessment said even if limited strikes were ordered against only nuclear research facilities, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's unpredictability meant a high potential for huge retaliation.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.com.au ...
North Korea reportedly has a million man army. Based on what I've heard, there is no way the South Korean army could overcome a ground invasion and wholesale bombing of Seoul with conventional and chemical weapons.
The economic impact alone would be catastrophic.
AIR bombing, possibly including US tactical nuclear weapons, to penetrate metres-thick concrete protecting the North's nuclear research complex at Yonben.
Sounds like a plan.
Horrible situation. I was talking to a vet yesterday about this that was in Korea and he pretty much agreeded with such sentiments.
I am amazed that so many people would endorse the US using premptive use Nuclear weapons. That is not going to happen
Now there you have the money post of the evening.
There is simply nothing else that would shut down the dug-in and hardened NK artillery tubes along the DMZ that are pre-stocked with hundreds of rounds per tube. They could devastate Seoul in hours. That's where the million civilian casualties come from. BUT, a number of neutron bombs along the DMZ and there wouldn't be anyone to operate the guns.
The sad thing is, we don't have any.
A few years ago the Chinese had to reinforce their border guards on the Yalu with 75,000 more troops because NK conscript enlisted kept crossing the Yalu with their military small arms to rob Chinese banks so they could buy food. This means that discipline and order in the NKPA is gone - non-coms and officers at all levels had to deliberately ignore this for it to happen on such a large scale. The NKPA is not even an armed mob anymore.
The troops won't obey orders. The tubes and stocks haven't been maintained in years. The NKPA is gone.
Well instead of allowing 500,000 American casualties in an invasion of Japan Truman had the balls to use nukes on the enemy.
Does Mr. Bush have to balls to do likewise?
And would Japan and S. Korea support us?
In a short time I think you'll see the Chi-coms come to the conclusion that N.Korea under the little nutjob isn't worth it and will take him out.
I don't see it happening. National Geographic, Lisa Ling managed to get into NK a while ago with a eye surgeon. Seems they have more cataracts per capita than any nation -- probably because of their inadequate diet -- anyway, she said when the bandages were taken off the first thing these people wanted to do was see a picture of Dear Leader, and they cried when they could see him again. they are totally brainwashed because of lack of contact with the outside world.
Actually it would be the best (of many worse) options for China to "move in" preemptively: I.e. sponsor a coup against Kim and install a puppet government, a la Tibet.
Let the Chinese build North Korea back up to a mere dysfunctional sh*thole (as opposed to an utterly nonfunctional hellhole) and then 5 or 10 or 15 years down the line we can worry about pressuring the Chinese to back off and permit the reunification of North Korea with the democratic South.
It's not terrific, but I would be worlds better than what we're dealing with now.
Bomb North Korea with electronic consumer products and food. The war will be over in a day.
Yeah, I do. Well, at least I suspect they probably would. I know they are well trained, brainwashed and loyal, but a nuke is a different story, you can't fight or kill a nuke and they would have to realize that to not retreat would be foolish suicide.. One nuke would probably not do it ... but two?
Anyway, I obviously have no deep insight into the NK military's psychic makeup and could be dead wrong. I'm just basing the opinion on what I think any human would do under the cirumstances. I hope that if this situation occurs that I am right.
I think you are probably right, my reasoning is that a nuke is not like staying and fighting for a cause ... you can't win and they would realize it would be a meaningless sacrifice of thousands of fighting troops. Why not retreat, regoup and possibly mount a future attack? For any field general this would be a no-brainer. Yes, individually, they may think of suicide for a cause, but the leaders would see no point in it. I am not a military expert but to me this would be taught in Combat 101.
"Other estimates say the US would need at least 500,000 ground troops to secure against a North invasion of the South."
Not if there is no North.
Well, doing something NOW about NK is much better than farting around and kicking the can down the road. The politicians are dealing with NK like they're dealing with the Social Security issue.
Wouldn't that be against the Geneva Conventions?
Cut off the head, the snake dies.
Exactly...
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