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Allow Japanese Nukes
Washington Post ^ | 10/20/06 | Charles Krauthammer

Posted on 10/19/2006 9:27:34 PM PDT by AmericanExceptionalist

The first stop on Condoleezza Rice's post-detonation, nuclear reassurance tour was Tokyo. There she dutifully unfurled the American nuclear umbrella, pledging in person that the United States would meet any North Korean attack on Japan with massive American retaliation, nuclear if necessary.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: japan; northkorea
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To: PzLdr

"Allow 'em, hell! Give 'em to them - and the Taiwanese, too."

Sounds reasonable to me. However, we could just give them the designs. They have all the expertise and fissionable material to do the rest.


21 posted on 10/19/2006 10:27:13 PM PDT by cpdiii (Oil Field Trash and proud of it, Geologist, Pilot, Pharmacist, Iconoclast)
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To: BigSkyFreeper
If Japan was ruled by a crazed dictator, then you might have a point. But, alas, you don't.

I don't get you. I'm not worried Japan will use their nukes. I'm saying Japan doesn't need nukes, and a nuclear armed Japan will scare the bejesus out of America's allies in the region. A scared S. Korea will move closer into the orbit of China, which hurts US interests.

22 posted on 10/19/2006 10:27:39 PM PDT by Alter Kaker ("Whatever tears one sheds, in the end one always blows one's nose." - Heine)
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To: Alter Kaker

South Korea and China already have nukes.


23 posted on 10/19/2006 10:31:35 PM PDT by BigSkyFreeper (Karl Rove you magnificent bastard!)
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To: BigSkyFreeper
South Korea and China already have nukes.

South Korea has nukes? That's news to me. China has nukes, but South Korea doesn't perceive China to be a threat. South Korea does, however, feel threatened by Japan. You and I may disagree with their view, but it's a fact.

24 posted on 10/19/2006 10:34:54 PM PDT by Alter Kaker ("Whatever tears one sheds, in the end one always blows one's nose." - Heine)
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To: diesel00
I'm sorry, having Japan nuclearize has the same amount of appeal as having a nuclearized Germany. We don't need more countries having nuclear weapons, period. Ally today, enemy tomorrow.

Hate to break this to you, pal, but we did equip the Bundeswehr with nukes back in the day. It was a "dual-key" arrangement, in which a US officer held a virtual "veto" over whether or not the nukes would be used (based on a decision by the National Command Authority). In this case, it's a moot point, since Mr. Abe says that the Japanese don't want any nukes, just missile defense.

25 posted on 10/19/2006 10:47:42 PM PDT by pawdoggie
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To: Alter Kaker
...South Korea doesn't perceive China to be a threat.

Which is a bunch of left winged BS anyway. China is a bigger threat to South Korea than Japan could ever hope to be.

26 posted on 10/19/2006 10:49:15 PM PDT by BigSkyFreeper (Karl Rove you magnificent bastard!)
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To: Left2Right
Unless Taiwan can build more nukes than China (and be able to land them in China), I really don't think a nuclear Taiwan would be any more of a deterrent than a non-nuclear Taiwan. A nuclear test by Taiwan could very well be perceived as a declaration of war to the Chinese. It's utterly foolhardy and serves no purpose.

Having all of East Asia nuclearize is NOT in the best interests of the United States believe it or not. Rice and the Bush administration are well aware of this. The end result of a nuclearized East Asia is that US forces leave the region, it would do jack squat in containing China.

Japan isn't gonna nuclearize, even if it had nukes, it wouldn't test them.
27 posted on 10/19/2006 10:56:07 PM PDT by diesel00
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To: pawdoggie

That's not the same thing as having an autonomous Japanese nuclear program, which is basically what Krauthammer and some of the posters here want. The Germany veto setup is not too different from a nuclear umbrella, just merely localized.


28 posted on 10/19/2006 10:59:36 PM PDT by diesel00
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To: Doctor Stochastic
Will Japan always be an ally?

Dunno. But it is safe to assume that North Korea will always be an enemy--at least, as long as "Dear Leader" reigns supreme. And the enemy of my enemy...well, you know the rest.

29 posted on 10/19/2006 11:02:58 PM PDT by AmericanExceptionalist (Democrats believe in discussing the full spectrum of ideas, all the way from far left to center-left)
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To: Alter Kaker
I disagree.

No one on the planet fears Japan arming themselves with nuclear weapons more than China.

The very threat of Japan going nuclear has a very high likelihood of forcing China to reign in their Chia pet to the south. It is an excellent threat to hold over China's head to act and act now. Doing so may well save hundreds of thousands of lives in both NK and SK along with thousands of our soldiers lives.
30 posted on 10/19/2006 11:03:02 PM PDT by DB (©)
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To: Alter Kaker
How does a nuclear Japan help things?

NK does what it does because the Chicoms let them. Don't buy this crap that they're upset about the North's behavior. They gave them the green light to go for it. A nuclear Japan will force the Chinese to reign in their attack dog because while we may promise we will retaliate for a nuclear attack on Japan, a Japan with nukes will without a doubt retaliate.

31 posted on 10/19/2006 11:04:13 PM PDT by GATOR NAVY
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To: Alter Kaker
I'm saying Japan doesn't need nukes, and a nuclear armed Japan will scare the bejesus out of America's allies in the region. A scared S. Korea will move closer into the orbit of China, which hurts US interests.

Right. A nuclear Japan does not necessarily help in containing China, in fact, it might just do the opposite and move the rest of East and Southeast Asia closer to China. Basically it achieves nothing, and probably would only cause Japan to feel brave enough to ask our troops to leave.
32 posted on 10/19/2006 11:06:17 PM PDT by diesel00
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To: DB

We agree.


33 posted on 10/19/2006 11:08:02 PM PDT by GATOR NAVY
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To: PzLdr
Allow 'em, hell! Give 'em to them - and the Taiwanese, too.

We wouldn't have to give nukes to them. The South Koreans, Japanese and Taiwanese are quite capable of making them in short order. Probably weeks rather than months.

34 posted on 10/19/2006 11:09:57 PM PDT by glorgau
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To: DB
No one on the planet fears Japan arming themselves with nuclear weapons more than China.

That may well be true. But they're not the only ones who fear a nuclear Japan, and all the other regional powers will look to Beijing -- not Washington -- to ensure regional security in the face of what they will perceive to be Japanese aggression. That's, imho, a grave geopolitical mistake.

Additionally, a nuclear armed Japan will legitimize everything the DPRK is saying -- that their nukes are purely defensive, and make it impossible for the US to build the kind of international resolve necessary to enforce an effective embargo of the DPRK. The US needs Kim Jong Il to remain the bad guy -- how he's currently viewed. If Japan builds nukes, the children and grandchildren of victims of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere will start seeing Japan as the bigger threat.

35 posted on 10/19/2006 11:10:11 PM PDT by Alter Kaker ("Whatever tears one sheds, in the end one always blows one's nose." - Heine)
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To: GATOR NAVY
NK does what it does because the Chicoms let them.

Maybe, to some extent. But I don't see how a nuclear DPRK helps China.

A nuclear Japan will force the Chinese to reign in their attack dog because while we may promise we will retaliate for a nuclear attack on Japan, a Japan with nukes will without a doubt retaliate.

Maybe yes, maybe no. But is it worth losing influence over South Korea, Indonesia, the Philipines and even Taiwan? Why not just restate the US' committment to providing a nuclear umbrella for Japan?

36 posted on 10/19/2006 11:14:12 PM PDT by Alter Kaker ("Whatever tears one sheds, in the end one always blows one's nose." - Heine)
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To: diesel00
A nuclear test by Taiwan could very well be perceived as a declaration of war to the Chinese.

Yet the South Koreans apparently don't consider North Korea's nuclear detonations "a declaration of war"--not to mention the gazillions of conventional arms aimed at Seoul.

Some people might think the totalitarians are just more serious about this deadly game than the West is.

37 posted on 10/19/2006 11:16:17 PM PDT by AmericanExceptionalist (Democrats believe in discussing the full spectrum of ideas, all the way from far left to center-left)
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To: diesel00

Umm...If nukes weren't a deterrent, why would NK, Iran (okay, Iran might actually want to use them), and a slew of tin pot dictatorships want to procure them, even in small amounts? You're right that Red China would think of that as a declaration of war, but it definitely serves a purpose. The Chicoms are pretty fervent about taking Taiwan, but having the possibility of a radioactive Beijing, Shanghai, or any big city is certainly going to influence whether they try and take the island by force.


38 posted on 10/19/2006 11:17:22 PM PDT by Constantine XI Palaeologus ("Vicisti, Galilaee")
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To: DB
No one on the planet fears Japan arming themselves with nuclear weapons more than China.

This is mostly speculation. Sure, China doesn't want Japan to have nukes, but in the end it doesn't matter whether Japan has them or not. Japan has 1/40 the landmass of China, and 1/10 of its population. Japan could not win a nuclear war with China on its own. If Japan wants nukes only as a deterrent, then the US nuclear umbrella is good enough. It's mostly ego and posturing for Japan to have nukes. The strategic benefit is pretty minimal.
39 posted on 10/19/2006 11:19:38 PM PDT by diesel00
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To: Constantine XI Palaeologus

What you say is certainly true, but the problem is that Taiwan doesn't have the means of delivering a nuke to Shanghai or Beijing. Taiwan is in the south, it only has missile capabilities of reaching Fujian province, which is mostly rural.


40 posted on 10/19/2006 11:23:34 PM PDT by diesel00
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