Posted on 10/18/2006 3:16:12 PM PDT by Henry Wilson
Thank you for the "ping"!!!!
You're very welcome! The more pings about The Man of Steele, the better!
That's not how I remember it, but I don't live near Maryland anymore.
IN fact, the way I remember it, quite a few DC people lived in Frederick and Hagerstown and made the commute.
I don't think that's changed too much.
either way, I don't think the FedGov workers are a big enough segment to impact this election one way or the other.
I gre up in Baltimore. Most of my family still live in Marylant. My liberal sister is voting for Steele. She likes the puppy ads.
Go figure what's important to some people.
Steel is going to win. Nobody knows who Cardin is outside of Baltimore County, and I have a suspicion that this area is being oversampled in a lot these polls.
NSA and several other intelligence agencies have headquarters in MD. There are also a lot of DOD workers here, and several major military basements. Defense industries are also huge in MD. Northrop Grumman is the largest employer in the state.
Alfonso is correct, on MD 295 between 32 and BWI is a huge portion of the payroll for the DoD. Columbia and Laurel are dominated by contractors and military folks.
Do you live in MD?
Yup. People in my household work for undisclosed agencies. I'm sure whe probably live close by.
We are probably aren't far at all. Do you think Steele and Ehrlich will do well in the election?
Michael's got the big mo. Keep it up Mike!
Ehrlich is in the bag. O'Malley made so many enemies that it is almost comical. Every local talk radio station (even apolitical Ed Norris) trashes the guy non stop.
Steele I have concerns about. Very tight race, I'm hoping his high ground ads land him a few extra votes out in the western counties.
That 3% for Zeese is coming straight off of Cardin.
Zeese is a left wing defeatocrat socialist cut and runner.
History suggests that half of Zeese's vote will go to Cardin which means Steele can win with 49% of the vote.
My prediction:
Steele 49%
Cardin 48.5%
Zeese 1.5%
And for once a 3rd party helps us in a Senate race.
Agree with everything you said, except I think Santorum's race is the most important of this election. Santorum is a first class conservative and not running from the President in a blue state. He has completely out-classes and out-debated Casey, and yet he's still losing.
Unfortunately PA is becoming like NJ and NY. But the ability to splinter the black vote from the Dims is very telling and is going to have a long term impact on the electorate. Besides, Santorum may just pull it off, screw the polls. Midterm elections are historically low turn out affairs. If the ground battle is so skewed in favor of the Republicans, the polls may well be relegated to the dustbin of history.
I won $1000 in 2004 betting on Bush. There was never a doubt in my mind about the outcome and I am equally secure about the outcome here, concerning control of congress.
Add 5 to the R, subtract 5 from the D, and you are about right. Does not apply in any Blackwell poll, which is completely out of touch with reality.
The point is, I've covered, now, some 2,000 houses in four precincts. We know the registration numbers, and there is ZERO sentiment for Brown or Strickland. Maybe a total of four yard signs. Dozens of DeWine, Blackwell, Turner signs. Lots of people took the lit and were not hostile. "Thank you," "I'll look this over." Never a "I hate Taft" or "Damn Republicans," or "Stupid DeWine." Remember, I'm doing pro-Bush Dems, Is, and Rs.
Bottom line: the story on the ground in NO WAY conforms to what the polls show.
Interesting. I'd say that's right . . . except for R turnout. I think R turnout=another 3%, which means you're looking at virtually no losses at all, or, if things break right, a gain of a seat.
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