Liberals, Conservatives tied for support: new poll

A new poll suggests Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat for Canadian support -- even though the Liberal party has yet to decide on its next leader.

The Oct. 12-15 survey covers a number of issues, from who would make the best prime minister to whether Canadians support the Afghanistan mission.

But one of the most surprising results is which political party Canadians would likely vote for -- 32 per cent of those surveyed answered Liberal, while an equal percentage responded Conservative.

What the poll shows, said CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife, is the "resilience of the Liberal Party."

"The Liberal Party, even though it does not have a leader, has a lot of solid foundations in the country and people are comfortable with a lot of the values of the Liberal Party," Fife said Wednesday on Canada AM.

With the controversy over the Afghanistan mission, concerns over the Conservative government's environmental policy, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper's recent statements accusing Liberal leadership candidates of being anti-Israel, Fife said "people seem to be gravitating back to the Liberal Party."

The poll, conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, also indicates the Green Party has made the largest gain in support since the January 2006 election results.

Here is where the parties now stand (percentage-point change from the election results in brackets):

Conservatives: 32 per cent (- 4) Liberals: 32 per cent (+ 2) NDP: 17 per cent (- 1) Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (same) Greens: 5 per cent (+ 4)

Canadians said they would pick Stephen Harper as prime minister over any of the major Liberal leadership candidates if an election were to be held today.

But among the Liberal candidates, Bob Rae came out tops as the favourite to take on Harper.

Rae faired slightly better than Michael Ignatieff, the perceived front-runner in the race, with 26 per cent of respondents saying he'd make the best prime minister, compared to 23 per cent for Ignatieff.

In Ontario, where Rae was the NDP premier during a tough recession in the 1990s, he had 29 per cent -- a surprising seven-percentage-point lead over Ignatieff. Harper, on the other hand, managed 37 per cent.

In Quebec, Ignatieff had the strongest support at 28 per cent, while Harper received 20 per cent. In Ontario, Harper led with 43 per cent, compared with Ignatieff's relatively low 22 per cent.

While Ontarians seem to be comfortable with Harper's Conservatives, the news is much more sobering in Quebec where the party has been sliding in the polls since May.

While the Tories were the first choice for 30 per cent of Quebec voters in May, that number drops to 16 per cent today. The party received 25 per cent of Quebec votes in the Jan. 23 election.

Fife said the fact Harper is doing well in Ontario is significant, "because Ontario has, over the last 15 years, been traditionally voting Liberal. Ontario now seems to be comfortable with the Conservatives -- but Mr. Harper's problem lies in Quebec."

Fife said Canada's participation in the war in Afghanistan is affecting Tory popularity in the province. Also working against Harper's Conservatives in Quebec is their position on the Kyoto accord and their insistence on holding a vote on reopening the issue of same-sex marriage.

"This is a problem area for Mr. Harper," said Fife. "It's not to say it can't be fixed, but it is a worrisome one for him."

Further on the environment, the poll also asked Canadians how they thought greenhouse gas reduction programs should be funded, days before the Conservative government is expected to announce its Clean Air Act.

The vast majority of respondents said industries which contribute to air pollution should bear the brunt of funding, by paying stiff penalties.

Here's a breakdown of which funding options Canadians strongly or somewhat support:

Heavy fines for energy-using industries that fail to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions: 84 per cent An energy tax based on the total amount of energy used consumers and industries: 55 per cent Pay tolls on major roads and highways: 37 per cent Significantly increasing the price of gasoline: 20 per cent Raising income taxes: 18 per cent

According to The Canadian Press, the government is expected to unveil new fuel efficiencies standards for cars that will mean mandatory regulations for manufacturers.

Canadians remain largely divided on whether to support the Afghanistan mission, although overall support has increased since August, according to the poll.

In an Aug. 10-13 survey, 37 per cent of Canadians supported sending troops to Afghanistan, while 55 per cent opposed the deployment. But the latest poll shows that 44 per cent now support the mission, compared to 53 per cent against.

Strongly support: 10 per cent Support: 34 per cent Oppose: 26 per cent Strongly oppose: 27 per cent

Almost the same amount of Canadians who oppose sending troops to Afghanistan feel that too many Canadians have been killed in the war-torn country. Since 2002, more than 40 soldiers have died.

When asked if Canadian casualties are too high a price for stability and security in the region, here are the results (percentage-point-difference from the Aug. 10-13 poll in brackets):

That is the price that must be paid: 42 per cent (+ 6) Price is too high: 55 per cent (- 3 per cent)

On Tuesday, Harper said a difficult security situation has slowed reconstruction efforts in the southern part of the country. British Prime Minister Tony Blair recently called the Canadian mission "a just and noble cause."

The poll also asked Canadians how their government should respond to North Korea's nuclear test. Only three per cent felt there should be a military invasion of the communist state, while 40 per cent backed economic sanctions.

Twenty-four per cent felt that Canada should take the opposite approach by offering incentives to North Korea, like food, if they stop their nuclear weapons program.

Slightly more Canadians -- 29 per cent -- said talks should continue, with neither new sanctions nor incentives.

Interviews for the poll were conducted between Oct. 12 and 15. For national results, about 1,000 people were interviewed across Canada, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

The sample size for Ontario was 379 respondents, and the margin of error was plus or minus 5 per cent.

So the Liberal leadership candidates make fools of themselves, the Liberal party is mostly invisible, the CPC has no major gaffs happening, and it's the LPC that is up? I don't think so.

This is a bogus poll. The change for the CPC and Green party is just barely outside of the margin of error. The margin of error is so large that the past results showing the conservatives significantly ahead pretty much fit within the range of this poll. Sample size seems rather small too for a national poll and half the poll was on a weekend so there may be some bias in the sample.

Even though this poll confirms my claim that Bob Rae's past won't be much of a problem in his leadership bid, I don't trust it.

What the poll shows, said CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife, is the "resilience of the Liberal Party."

What it actually shows is that the party with the undetermined candidate generally scores higher. People tend to assume the ideal candidate that matches their values. But once the candidate is actually named, that fantasy is gone and support drops.

Your statement.

This is a bogus poll.

Agreed. I also noticed on this post, a statement by Robert Fife of CTV, saying that this reflects "the resilience of the Liberal Party". Mr Fife went on to confirm the Canadian public's comfort with many ideas of the Liberal Party.

I have wondered why I get mixed up with the CBC and CTV. I scramble for a quote which usually is somewhat anti-American or anti- Harper. One has to be careful.I find sometimes CTV seem to be only slightly different than CBC.

The utter derision of such people as Joe Clark and Preston Manning still rankles. This by Canadian television and press. What a sordid hit job on these two men. Together, Bob Rae and Rick Mercer get a free pass. (chuckle).

Smells like red poop to me. I work with doctors, and I can assure you, Ontario has not forgotten nor forgiven "Rae Days".

I wish him on the libs ;p

Another poll?

(Yawn)

A poll is the misspelled version of "pole", which is long, round, usually made of wood and used to prop things up.

Your libs seem sorely in need of propping, don't they? Hope this one makes 'em feel better.

CTV has one spin on this highly unlikely poll.
Here's another.
A closer read reveals all the Liberal leadership hopefuls to be considerably less popular than their Party & light years behind Stephen Harper who apparently out-polls his.
Aside from indicating a probable boost in NDP fortunes should Count Iggy win the race, its biggest up-side is its suggestion that Ontario has forgiven Bob Rae & it's now safe drink the Kool-aid.

Yeah, go right ahead, drink up! Gotta be safe ... snicker !

The Canadian Media tilts Left. And combined with the leftist nature of the electorate, Canada's three leftist parties have a built-in advantage right out of the starting gate. The Conservatives have to overcome an unfavorable demographic terrain, the perception they're not really a party of power and media bias to win. If they win a parliamentary majority in the next federal election in the face of all these forces, it will be a Canadian miracle.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

Re: Tie between Liberals and Conservatives and bogus poll.

Oh oh, This just in. Conservative MP Garth Turner suspended from the Conservative Party. Seems he may have used the internet to the discomfort of others. I hardly knew of the man, but he is conceded to be a bit of a maverick.

Susan and Nancy, CBC commentators, were just absolutely twittering about it. He will hold a news conference later. The woman almost gleefully opined as to his possible broadsides.

I knew before they did themselves, the inference to come. Will this hurt the minority government of Conservatives? This rhetorical question was finally posed by one of these women.

Go easy on the liquor,Liberals, says I, you do not get back into power that easy. LOL

The only really clear advantage the three leftist parties enjoy is having Canada's msm shilling for them.

On the other hand, multiple opposition options often tend to skew ultimate electoral outcomes.

One can argue that Ross Perot effectively got Clinton elected twice and there's likely not a better example of a skewed outcome than the one which resulted from 'confused' 2000 Presidential election votes being cast in Florida.

The Conservatives won in the past as the 'minority' party in Canada just as the Republicans often did Stateside.

"Conservative MP Garth Turner suspended from the Conservative Party"

I know Garth Turner fairly well as he was once my MP & I worked on one of his Mulroney-era campaigns.

Bottom line: no loss as he's a self-important blowhard & loose cannon who felt entitled to a Cabinet portfolio because he was once a very junior Minister under Mulroney and who's been in a very public snit ever since Stephen Harper quite rightly passed him over for one this time around.

He managed to get elected in 2006 in what's roughly his old Riding apparently in the main based upon name recognition & a pro CPC swing.

As was the case before he entered public life, Turner made his living over the 13 years he was out of Office as a journalist & self-styled financial guru.
He was involved in several 'questionable' deals for which, as far as I know, he was never charged criminally but remains embroiled in civil litigation.

Unfortunately, I'm not as sure as you are that this poll is bogus. The main change seems to be in Quebec, where the Conservatives took a bit of a beating after supporting Israel in the recent Lebanon war.

It's also easier to gain in the polls when the party has no leader - people who think their favorite leadership candidate will win still back the party. It will be more interesting to see the polls after the Liberals have settled on a leader.

And, as you've noted, the changes are just outside the margin of error anyway.

ahhh,come on......"MSM{CBC}tilts left"...helloooo out there...the MSM socialist libranos are so far left[and brutally biased that they are issued "knee pads" each morning when they report to the 'toad house' for work so that when they fall to their knees at the alter of the libranos,they don't skin or callous themselves...thanks for the post..i needed a a bit of humor today...eh! '...

It amazes me that Ontario would so soon forget how much they hated Rae when he was Premier of Ontario. People have such short memories - everywhere it seems. B.C. did the same thing with the NDP. They came in under Barrett and then were heaved out big time after one term. I didn't believe that B.C. would EVER vote in another NDP government. I was wrong. Glen Clark got in twice. The fiscal result was the same - they ruined the economy and plunged the Province into big time debt. These socialists don't change they only know how to tax, spend and kiss union A$$!!

You nailed it on that issue. Quebec has the largest Muslim population in all of North America. I can see that supporting Isreal might not be a popular however I can't see that the Muslims are the bulk of the voting public. Maybe the slanted media chose to do their biased little poll in a heavily populated Muslim area?

It's not just Quebec's Muslim population that's at issue. Francophone Quebec takes a lot of its cues from France, which in general is more anti-Israel and anti-war than the Anglosphere. And if they get their international news from French news agencies, I can only imagine how much worse it is than even the most biased English-language news services.

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