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Gee, I think someone named LS has been saying for months that the pollsters were oversampling Dems by 5% at least!

Yes. I remember your posts, and I always agreed with them. I too have been saying that the polling sampling makes no sense, particularly in light of the past few years. If you look at the most recent data that Winston cites, in 2002 Republicans held a 2 point advantage, and in 2004 they were tied. But a tie means a virtual republican advantage, particularly if you understand party identification in the south. Many southerners identify themselves as democrats, but are quite conservative and often vote republican. This is because party identification is so traditional, that folks will continue to call themselves democrats because they don't want to upset older family members. I have at least 2 friends who have told me they won't switch parties until their parents die because they don't want to upset the family. These aren't isolated cases. It is very common in the south.

The other issue is the amazing Get-Out-The-Vote machine that Karl Rove has created and you can bet it is well oiled for this election. In 2004, election turnout smashed all records, with 63 million voters voting for GWB for president. You can bet that the republicans have not been sitting back on their haunches since then doing nothing. I expect that republican turnout will shock the MSM and the pollsters.

For democrats to take either 1 or both of the houses, they will have to enjoy a significant advantage in voter turnout come election day. If turnout is about even, (which is almost a certainty) then they won't take either house back.