Posted on 10/15/2006 3:12:59 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
One thing we need to keep in mind while China is responding to the current crisis is that an event like N. Korean nuclear test affects power struggle inside Chinese leadership. China no longer has monolithic leader like Deng Xiao-ping or Mao Zedong who towers over everybody else. It is ruled by collective leadership made up of multiple factions, in which Hu Jintao has a little more power than other Politburo members. Everytime something like this happens, some factions are on the offensive, and others are put on the defensive.
The nuclear test is a drastic event which could visibly shift power balance inside Politburo, not just temporary jostling among factions. Lately, Chinese media are wide-open to criticize N. Korea. I think that some folks on the top let this floodgate open to get at their political enemies.
High stake's game is being played not only in Pyongyang but also in Beijing.
So, we kept the North Korean military fed and fueled, which enabled the regime to remain standing, and WMD research to continue, while the people the aid was intended for continued to starve and freeze.
There's a big difference between humanitarian aid and chemicals necessary for purifying plutonium.
How do you figure that, when dealing with a state like North Korea? It's like donating guns to your local street gang, and then protesting your innocence by saying, "Hey, I'm not the one that gave them ammo."
Let's just keep in mind that everything North Korea is doing now is designed to keep Jong-Il in power. It is all for the Kim family mafia/dictatorship.
They don't really care what China wants or doesn't want. All that matters is keeping the Kim family in power. Sometimes that matches up with what China wants and Chinese interests. Sometimes it doesn't.
Sorry Tiger, I think this is dis-information coming out of China's state security apparatus; attempting to reinforce the geopolitical spin that China is really honestly working with U.S. and S.Korea on this issue. I don't buy it.
70% of thir fuel comes from China. As to food, we reduced the pressure. I presume you would prefer they starve for real?
How do you figure that, when dealing with a state like North Korea?
Try refining plutonium with wheat.
It's like donating guns to your local street gang, and then protesting your innocence by saying, "Hey, I'm not the one that gave them ammo."
Guns are a whole lot easier to get than 20 tons of tributyl phosphate, although with Indonesian piracy on the rise it's getting easier.
I know they are belatedly bitching about it, and trying to deflect its responsibility for this "disaster."
What I am wondering about is whether N. Korea back-stabbed China regarding the nuclear test.
To me, it is quite plausible that N. Korea goes freelancing, jerks around China a bit, and even plays Russia against China. N. Koreans are certainly capable of this.
I agree with you on the point that Chinese are not honestly working with U.S. nor S. Korea. However, they could have been duped by N. Korea, feeling that they have N. Korea "under control."
Bingo. All this talk of being a Chinese puppet is just that. Talk. The domestic and foriegn policies of the North Korean regime have one goal; to keep Kim Jong Il and company in power. North Korea has friends and foes only insofar as they relate to that goal.
I think the key to that answer is whether Iranians believe that they can get the weapons soonest from NK, Pakistan, or make their own. I saw this test as pure marketing, hustling money from potential buyers.
The Chinese have every interest in terrorists possessing nuclear weapons. It ties up America and nobody else. In that regard, and however loose the cannon, NK is still acting as a proxy. This show of "backstabbing" creating greater distance from China only increases their usefulness in that regard.
Exactly. "China" is not the same as "North Korea", in that there's not one guy at the top looking down at the chessboard, and moving pieces at whim. China top leadership has become a lot more like the U.S. Congress, where everyone has a chess piece, and must work together to get things done. As the situation changes, the pieces will alter their tactics from offensive to defensive. Some situations will force moves that the players don't want, but they'll generally come to a consensus on how to get around problems.
The current Chinese system is an arcane and inflexible way to govern, but it's far less arbitrary than the days of the revolutionary leaders.
I wouldn't say 'backstabbed', only in that it appears the DPRK has stabbed China in the front.
China, in effect, was paying off the DPRK in the same way that South Korea and Japan were. They put a lot of resources in, hoping to get stability out. It's not a great plan, but it's the least worst plan, from their point of view The North Koreans never really promise anything, but making deals with them can buy periods of calm. Unfortunately, what deals they do make, they break on a whim, and claim the other party at fault. The Chinese understand this better than anyone.
So, North Korea may be biting the hands that feed them, but that's how they are. No amount of tribute will ever be enough to keep them satisfied. The Chinese may have hoped to delay conflict as long as possible, but it was just a matter of time before tensions flared again, and they knew it.
Spot on Man. China is in control of everything. They are giving Krazy Kim, just enough leash to work it's will. This NK stuff is probably more geared towards China becoming THE Asia boss and also giving cover to Iran. Iran needs to quickly finish the bomb and there are lucrative arms and oil deals for China. China wants Iran to have the bomb.
Furthermore, this is probably China saying, if you attack Iran for nuclear WMD, be prepared for war on the Korean front as well. NK is now sufficiently destabilized for a NK casus belli. Iran is heating up (especially after elections).
Some could end up there by acident if N Kor launches its missiles. Fortunately most of what is in range is Manchuria so it wouldn't matter much.
Well, I can't vouch for it being used as a tool in Kim-illin's desperate attempt to remain in power either. From what I've also read, it could also spell the end of his regieme if he could no longer control the population.
OTOH, I just can't imagine China would appreciate them showing up in time for the opening ceremonies for the Olympics, nor having to deal with refugee camps in addition to preps for the event.
I'd just a likely entertain that it is China who is pulling the strings here. I just posted my thoughts as a "what if..."
The most likely scenario? China or Russia is manipulating the NK midget to rant just enough to affect the US elections. Following November 7th, Russia or China will announce the test was a fraud. The UN will lift any sanctions and provide relief and that will be the end of it.
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