Posted on 10/14/2006 4:34:21 AM PDT by johnny7
REPUBLICANS and conservatives, brace yourselves! Strategists and consultants of both parties now believe the House is lost and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi will become speaker. At best, Republicans will cling to control of the Senate by a single seat, two at most. For many election cycles, Republicans have been the boys of October, using paid media and superior campaign skills to make up lost ground and win in November. This year, they were the boys of September, rallying strongly until that fateful day, September 29, when the Mark Foley scandal erupted. October has been a disaster so far. A strong finishing kick for Republicans, minimizing Democratic gains, is possible. They pulled one off brilliantly in President Bush's first midterm election in 2002. But recovery will be harder this time, a lot harder.
The press is fixated on the so-called generic ballot--Do you want a Democratic or Republican Congress?--as an indicator of Republican setbacks on November 7. But that gauge has rarely been predictive. Two others are more reliable: presidential approval and party enthusiasm. And they tell an ominous story for Republicans about the difference between 2002 and 2006.
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
I am getting the impression that the GOP internals are within the margin of error. At that point, it's a matter of turnout, particularly of the base.
The Republicans I've talked to are not saying "I'm sitting this out." They're going to vote--and they're going to vote GOP.
I find it hard to believe a critical mass of people have either stopped talking to or are lying to pollsters to make polling worthless.
Want to end a conversation with a pollster?
Ask him what the hang-up rate for his polls are. He'll clam up, because it's astronomically high nowadays. I've heard that one nationwide poll got a 75% hang-up rate. Normal people just don't have time to waste on this silliness.
Sure, I'll bet you 1,000 Ameros on each of them.
You would have fit right in back in late '98 and '99 when people were stating with the same certainty (for almost the same reasons) that Clinton would not leave office.
Agreed, I don't pay any attention to the NYT, CNN,CBS,NBC etc. polls but unbiased, reputable polls show us losing seats.
I haven't given up by any means but it doesn't seem possible we can actually gain seats.
I don't know where your located but here in Connecticut the moderate Republicans are in trouble. Dissatisfaction the the war, and high energy prices are driving the middle of the roaders to the Dems.
Here in Connecticut we are in a unique situation because of electric deregulation, unless you live here you can't possibly fathom what's going on.
That said, I'm hoping the more Conservative states that have carried us in the past pull us through.
I hope you're right, keeping my fingers crossed.
Yeah, I almost didn't say anything to you. It's the same dilemma as whether to say something to someone who's got a piece of spinach stuck between their teeth.
It doesn't matter. she will finesee word her way to say you didn't prove your point. you did. You know it and I know it.
I tell you this - if these dire predictions do not pan out, I am writing off ever listening to some of the conservative pundits making them.
I am wondering how many of this beltway conservative are being doom sayers because they don't want their democrat friends to loose their jobs.
He may also be about self fullfilling prophesy by depressing the turn out and being a big fish in a minority vs being a small fish overwhelmed by non elitist majority red staters.
today he was very cheering us to get out the vote.
I am betting some pudit's contracts will be renegotiated for lower amounts.
I guess I'm the only one who believes the Foley scandal in the end is going to help the Republicans.
Joesbucks, I think I shut her up.
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