How Bad Will It Be? [Fred Barnes]

Weekly Standard ^ | 10/23/2006 | By Fred Barnes

[johnny7]

REPUBLICANS and conservatives, brace yourselves! Strategists and consultants of both parties now believe the House is lost and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi will become speaker. At best, Republicans will cling to control of the Senate by a single seat, two at most. For many election cycles, Republicans have been the boys of October, using paid media and superior campaign skills to make up lost ground and win in November. This year, they were the boys of September, rallying strongly until that fateful day, September 29, when the Mark Foley scandal erupted. October has been a disaster so far. A strong finishing kick for Republicans, minimizing Democratic gains, is possible. They pulled one off brilliantly in President Bush's first midterm election in 2002. But recovery will be harder this time, a lot harder.

The press is fixated on the so-called generic ballot--Do you want a Democratic or Republican Congress?--as an indicator of Republican setbacks on November 7. But that gauge has rarely been predictive. Two others are more reliable: presidential approval and party enthusiasm. And they tell an ominous story for Republicans about the difference between 2002 and 2006.

[johnny7]

Somebody send Fred a bugle... so he can blow Taps.

[listenhillary]

Bob Woodward wrote a new book? I didn't here anything about it. ;D

[listenhillary]

or even hear anything about it.

[Perdogg]

I disagree withe Fred. The GOP holds on,

[goldstategop]

I'm sick and tired of the defeatist talk. I remember coming once hearing people panic when President Bush seemed good as dead. The Chicken Littles will follow Fred Barnes over the Doom And Gloom Cliff. I'm not even going there. I don't believe anything the Drive By Media says about the election next month.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." -Manuel II Paleologus

[Doogle]

not if we can help it...VOTE PEOPLE!!


Doogle

[Northern Yankee]

I agree... I think the dems are going to wake up with a headache.

[johnny7]

I saw him on 'The Panel' last night... he was pathetic.

[kellynla]

I think I'll wait for Michael Barone's predictions.

Worse case scenario, "if" the 'Rats gain the majority in both houses, I doubt they would want to impeach GWB just to make Dick Cheney POTUS

Gad, the thought of looking at "Speaker" Pelosi is nightmarish!( Pelosi, who supported Gerry Studd's 1983 reelection AFTER it was revealed he had a sexual relationship with a page.)So Pelosi's faux outrage at Dennis Hastert is laughable!

[carmody]

Until all the 'bad news' started, I might have stayed home if the weather was cold and rainy that day -- thinking our position was strong. Now, I WILL vote.

Anyway, I thought the mantra of the left is: "It's the economy, stupid." People vote their pocketbooks.

[joesbucks]

I can't tell if some of these folks are telling the truth and really believe November will not be kind or they are using selected bad news to motivate the base to assure they vote.

[W04Man]

Is Fred saying this to fire us up? I'm not "fired up", I'm Pi**** at him!

I was already fired up, now I'm Pi****

[MNJohnnie]

Congressional districts are gerrymandered. Looking at the Generic ballot is a waste of time. 1st off, about 55% of the people polled in these do NOT vote. 2nd, you have no notion of where the people are. If the Dems win their districts 70-30 while Repbs squeek by 51-49 the generic polls can be accurate but also totally misleading. MOST Congressional districts are Red.

It is about turn out. What do you suppose happens to Republican turnout if we go into the election with everyone all convinced it is all over but the crying?

Really odd thing about these "News Media" polls. Republicans are either in desperate trouble or tied EVERY election year. Democrats are NEVER in trouble in them ever. That seems a bit odd.

[rhombus]

The worst consequences of a Democrat Congress won't be a silly impeachment trial, it will be a guaranteed loss in Iraq. They will set a date for withdrawal and cut off the money. Iraq will fall to Shiite-controlled Iran and many more Iraqis will be butchered. The Democrats will say, "Bush's fault", and change the subject to raising taxes to pay for bougus urban "homeland defense" projects.

[jmaroneps37]

Between freddie and billie crystal this is why I would never have the "weak-ly standard" in my home.



So freddie there is NOTHING that will change from now until Nov. 7? In that case why don't we cancel the election and give the money we save to Speaker pelosi's favorite charity?



Now that just about every poll has shown that there has been no effect from the foley incident, we are left where we were before.



We have the best economy in our lifetimes- Dow at all time highs, and 401Ks are glowing again. Gas is down and we have not been attacked in 5 years.


I suggest that everyone take a look at the GOP GOTV. It might be helpful. The history of mid term elections shows an average of about 34.2% turn out. In 1994 we kicked it up by 3.5% and made huge gains. In 2004 we got 62 million votes. There is a huge upside available and we know more about how to run a great GOTV now.

[johnny7]

I doubt they would want to impeach GWB just to make Dick Cheney POTUS

There are worse things they can do... like pulling the rug(funding) from under our troops in Iraq.

[gulfcoast6]

I sure hop you are right but one thing for sure, IF we don't come out on top the 'elected' pubs can blame themselves, they are selling out left and right.

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

Hey Fred, the fat lady ain't sung yet.

[robertpaulsen]

One low-level Congressman who may not have done anything illegal, who has resigned in disgrace, is going to single-handedly topple both the House and the Senate?

Please. If we lose the House and Senate, it will be because they're acting like Democrats. If I want more social spending and deficits, I'll vote for the real thing.

[pkmaine]

And here is the Newsweek Headline in 2002. It's too bad we don;t have a ready libray of predictions and polls from all of these sources. Polling is bordering on Fraud. I found one--I'm sure there are hundreds of stories like this one that are media generated.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3068006


Democrats Take the Lead in Midterms
While George W. Bush focuses on building support for war with Iraq, voters say they are most concerned about the economy.



By Jennifer Barrett
Newsweek Web Exclusive
Updated: 7:09 a.m. ET Sept 28, 2002
Sept. 28 - With less than six weeks until the November mid-term elections, Democratic Congressional candidates have taken the lead among voters, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll.


IF THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS for U.S. Congress were held today, more registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (47 percent) than the Republican candidate (40 percent) in their district. Thirteen percent say the would vote for another party’s candidate or are undecided. That’s a turnabout from the NEWSWEEK poll taken just after President George W. Bush’s Sept. 12 speech on Iraq to the United Nations, when 43 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, vs. 41 percent fot he Democrat.

Democrats need to pick up just six seats in the House of Representatives to gain control. In the Senate, Democrats already have a one-seat majority, and Republicans have more seats to defend.