Posted on 10/13/2006 8:10:47 AM PDT by 1curiousmind
Four days after North Korea tried to set off its first nuclear bomb, U.S. intelligence agencies think the blast detected by seismic sensors was a plutonium-fueled device that did not fully explode. "The working assumption is that what happened, more likely than not, was an attempted nuclear test that fell far short of being successful," said one U.S. official familiar with the latest intelligence assessment. There is still no confirmation that North Korea succeeded in creating a nuclear explosion, and so far no radioactive particles that would confirm a successful nuclear test have been detected. The Washington Times first reported Tuesday that U.S. officials were having doubts, based on preliminary data, about North Korea's boasts about having successfully tested its first nuclear device. The latest intelligence estimates of Monday's test at a nuclear test site near Kilju, in northeastern North Korea, put the size of the blast at 0.2 kilotons, or the equivalent of 200 tons of TNT. A plutonium-fueled nuclear device normally creates a much larger blast, in the range of 5 kilotons to 20 kilotons. A kiloton is the equivalent of 1,000 tons of TNT. The detected explosion likely was produced by the conventional high-explosives used to split the plutonium atoms and produce a nuclear explosion, one official said. A second official said, "There was a yield that was in the several hundred ton range, but it at least partially failed." Complete analysis of the data could take weeks, the officials said.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
You dont think that they could contain the radiation escape in that J shaped tunnel with the blast doors?
Fox just reporting that aircraft up and down the Korean coast cannot detect any fallout. It is going to be interesting what develops.
"Onry two-hunna tons?! It supposabe twenny kiroton! Now evabody gonna tink my rittre Kimmy is rearry rittre."
A nuclear device of that size is way beyond their capability. (And on a side note: Do you know how hard it is to start using the "L" key again after writing a sarcastic, I'm-so-ronery post?!) Larger devices allow for a sloppier implosion charge. If you can get some of the "pit" to compress enough to initiate the fission chain reaction, then the neutrons released will get most of the rest of the pit going as well. With a smaller pit, the margin for error goes way down. A slight imperfection will blow the pit apart rather than compressing it. This was either a fizzle or a fake.
The pajamas in the daytime and porno movies sends chills down my spine.
How about the poor bastar...uh, technicians who have to haul it out of there.
don't get me wrong. I think the guy's got to go. now. if nothing else just to send a message to that Iranian shrimp and Ego Chavez.
bluffing or not...see ya!
This official has no clue how a nuclear bomb works.
It just doesn't compute. I am not doubting the ability to NK to eventually produce a fission nuke, and without being usefully specific, that time could be fairly soon. But the amount of explosives req'd to compress/assemble the core of such a device is massively less than...tons. It's kilos. The explosive lens assembly and its detonation, is a very complex issue to work out. As is the initiator. I suspect NK will eventually get it.
This could have three or four ways been a fizzle, in the form of a badly initiated bomb, or even-isotope polluted Pu, or a few other things, spearately or together. This could have been a big pile of conventional explosives. I'm not confident anyone (outside of NK) knows, at least anyone who is credibly saying.
I hear that he's also threatening to test a Solaranite Bomb, a Calcinator Death Ray, an Omega-13 Device, and the fearsome Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator.
Right after the "test," NK made a big deal about saying all radiation was contained. That tells me it was probably a fake done with conventional explosives.
LOL, I kinda doubt that. Wish reporters had a tiny clue of how these things work. Then maybe we could get a story that is not full of impossible assertions stated as facts.
"Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator"
Oh Great! Just where the hell did he get this? Damn Chicoms!
I still the he tested a plutonium core, if it works you have a small nuke, you're also further along to a fussion device. Kim has limited plutonium and U235. Deuterium ain't that tough to get. As I recall H is 1 part in 4000 D.
Wouldn't a partial detonation would leave an awful lot radioactive material around?
We have a wee bit of experience exploding nuclear bombs in this country. We know what is and is not possible.
Clinton personally hand-carried the plans to him. It was all over Rush's show.
Fully understood. But we cannot access the ground in the vicinity of the alleged NK test as we could in Nevada to take readings. Plenty of US underground nuke tests took place where "no radiation was released". We may not be able to get close enough to their airspace to distinguish via aerial or satellite means between background radiation and whatever might have been released by an actual blast. And over and above all that, if no nuclear blast occurred and no radiation was released, then why are we insisting on a UN censure? All I'm saying is, we peons can not know what happened.
Failure or deliberate fake?
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