Posted on 10/12/2006 4:37:11 PM PDT by calcowgirl
LOS ANGELES - California - often regarded as the Democratic promised land, the bluest of blue states - is confounding a national trend this year as Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger appears headed for re-election while several other GOP candidates are making strong runs at statewide office.
As national Republicans struggle in a political climate soured by an unpopular war, high gas prices and the congressional page scandal, independent voter surveys show Schwarzenegger holding a comfortable advantage over his Democratic rival, state Treasure Phil Angelides.
The race for California's lieutenant governor appears even, and GOP candidates are in competitive contests for insurance commissioner, controller and secretary of state, polls suggest.
Besides governor, secretary of state is the only statewide office now held by a Republican.
What is the GOP up against in California? Democrats outnumber Republicans by 1.3 million voters, and the state delivered double-digit margins for Democratic presidential candidates in 2004 and 2000.
Not surprisingly, party leaders are uneasy with the campaign's trajectory and the prospect that it might not be a banner year for California Democrats.
"We say to all Californians: You're a blue state! Come home to blue! Come home to us," U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., said during a recent rally for Angelides, who lags Schwarzenegger even in densely Democratic coastal counties.
Schwarzenegger has been buffered by his celebrity while reshaping a centrist image this year, but the statewide races will be won by mobilizing voters, said state Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres.
"Obviously, we have to increase turnout," he said.
There will be no Republican sweep, however.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., is coasting toward re-election. Democratic candidates for attorney general and treasurer are strongly positioned, and legislative and congressional districts are so heavily jiggered to favor one party that few, if any, are likely to change hands on Nov. 7.
There are several issues at play that have benefited California Republicans.
Angelides' struggling candidacy isn't helping the Democratic cause. Much of the growth in registration rolls in recent years has been among independent voters, who are not aligned with any party and account for about 19 percent of the state's electorate. And Republicans tend to turn out 5 percent more voters on Election Day.
Despite the state's left-leaning reputation, Republicans have held the governorship for most of the last quarter-century - a reminder that character, issues or campaign cash can trump the Democratic registration edge.
"Voters here are clearly more likely to be Democratic and vote that way," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the nonpartisan Field Poll. But "they don't tend to vote straight party lines when they have particular impressions of the candidate."
And impressions of Angelides aren't good, polls have found. The Democrat emerged from a bruising June primary that recorded the lowest voter turnout in memory, 33.6 percent.
He also remains far below the level of support within his own party that experts believe is needed for him to win the race.
California's electorate, despite its slight tilt to the left, can be fickle.
In 1994, the state's voters endorsed Proposition 187, which denied most public services to illegal immigrants. It later was overturned by the courts. In 2000, 61 percent of voters approved Proposition 22, which defined marriage as a union between a man and a woman.
A few other Republican gubernatorial candidates are in positions similar to Schwarzenegger in largely avoiding fallout from the GOP's national problems.
In heavily Democratic Hawaii, Republican Gov. Linda Lingle is favored in November against Democrat Randy Iwase. In Democrat-leaning Vermont, Republican Gov. Jim Douglas has an edge in polls against Democrat Scudder Parker.
"Quality candidates win," California GOP Chairman Duf Sundheim said.
"Issues really matter to California voters, and this campaign is being played on our home turf, which is taxes," Sundheim added, alluding to Angelides' plan to raise taxes on high-income earners and some corporations while cutting taxes for middle- and lower-wage Californians.
Among California Democrats, there are signs of a divided front.
State Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, a Democrat who is locked in a tight race for lieutenant governor against Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, distanced himself from Angelides' plan to raise taxes.
Torres and other Democrats dispute that the party is headed for a crash similar to 1994, when Democrat Kathleen Brown lost the governor's race in a landslide and took down several other Democrats with her.
"In the end of the day, Democrats will come home," he said.
No Phil No
Hilariously good news from the liberal left coast. Even they are sick of the Democrats.
It isn't supposed to be a one way street.
Next target- Boxer & Feinstein.
Good point...
Join Schwarzenegge in supporting Tom.
John Garamendi is a socialist and very dangerous. Republicans need to work as hard as possible to elect Tom McClintock as Lt. Governor!!!
Good article. Eaplains some of the quirks of CA politics.
You're kidding!
Schwarzenegger supported the Senator? That's news to all. Schwarzenegger even refused to be photographed with the Senator at the recent, statewide, CaGOP gathering.
Why would conservatives, even conservative Republicans, join a liberal in anything?
Join Schwarzenegger? You bet! At his resignation ceremony, early in January 2006, after Senator McClintock is elected California's Lt. Governor.
Deep Blue Oregon may very likely have a Repub Gov and bring a House Switch over high taxes. Nancy Peloser may get the Gavel on her pointy little airhead?
Pray for W and Our Freedom Fighters
"Tuesday night, for example, McClintock joined the governor for a Schwarzenegger fund-raiser in Pasadena"
The reply was about about the Governor joining the Senator.
Join Schwarzenegge in supporting Tom.
Thus far, it's been the Senator who's been available, under coercion of financial and organizational abandonment by the CaGOP, not the Governor.
To my knowledge, Schwarzenegger has yet to appear at a McClintock, campaign event.
And "conservatives" around here trying to split the Republicans and elect Angelides are highly amusing. McClintock, and many of us here, are too smart to take the bait.
Excellent summary!
I hope others see the obvious as well.
Some around here are about as conservative, as Angelides.
And I think you are right, REAL conservatives see through this and listen to McClintock, NOT the DICCs
DICC= Democrats In Conservative Clothing.
McClintock: "Like many of us, I too have disagreements with some of the Governor's proposals. These differences, however, do not justify the abandonment of our party's responsibility to work tirelessly to reelect this Republican governor and to elect our GOP candidates to statewide and legislative offices.
For this reason, I view any effort to attack Governor Schwarzenegger as an attack on my own candidacy and those of every Republican seeking partisan office in 2006."
Of course you won't; calling conservatives names is just so much easier.
• Sure, you want Arnold to trot out McClintock and run on "McClintock is conservative" to get 35% of the voters vote for him, if he is lucky, and 65% AGAINST him. Brtilliant strategy, if you want Angelides to win.
• Arnold runs around campaigning for the Republican candidates in CA, even hopeless ones, like Mountjoy, it doesn't do the Republicans any good, Arnold ends up typecasting himself and loses to Angelides.
California ping
"calling conservatives names is just so much easier"
===
NOBODY is calling CONSERVATIVES names, only those PRETENDING to be conservatives, while very obviously working to have Angelides and the Dems win. Did it hit a nerve with you? You know what they say, if the shoe fits...
You jumped right into this one -- and in your next post addressed to me, you are just demonstrating the same "move the target, twist the facts" behavior that newzjunkie highlighted so well, alluding to Amerigomag's posts.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.