Crossfire War - Mosque in Mostar, Bosnia Hit by RPG

By Willard Payne Crossfire War - TEHRAN WATCH - Southeast Europe Theatre: Tehran - Mostar - Sarajevo - Ankara/Zagreb - Vienna - Brussels - Belgrade; Mosque in Mostar, Bosnia Heavily Damaged by Rocket Propelled Grenade - Mayor Appeals for Calm - Tehran's Timing Night Watch: MOSTAR - An unknown assailant fired a rocket propelled grenade (RPG) at a mosque in the Croatian section of the city of Mostar in southern Bosnia-Herzegovina. There were no casualties but a lot of damage. The head Imam Salem Dedovic said the timing of the attack was extremely disturbing since it has occurred during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. The Bosnian-Croat Mayor Ljubo Beslic has appealed for citizens to remain calm and for the police to find the man who fired the RPG. [SERBIANNA]

This is Tehran's timing. I don't believe it was a disgruntled voter angry at the recent divisive elections in the country. This attack is identical to the attack on the Shi'ite mosque in Samarra, Iraq in February that ignited the sectarian war still raging in Iraq. It is designed to create an atmosphere of religious-ethnic hatred in a city that witnessed some of the heaviest fighting between Muslims/Croats during the first Balkan war 1991-95. Ethnic tensions remains high in the area and there are occasional violent incidents between the communities. Tehran obviously wants more than the occasional incident. Iran is preparing the region to attract Vienna's attention away from Tehran's nuclear program.

Mostar is near the section of Croatia's border that angles south along the Adriatic coast which cut off Serbia and Bosnia's access to the sea.

The Croat and Bosniak leaders want to toss Republika Srpska into history's trash bin, while the Serbs want to secede from Bosnia-Herzegovina outright and unite with their co-ethnics in Serbia.

With such an unrealistic deadline (not to mention goal) ahead, a resurgence of violence in the region would hardly be a surprise. This attack is likely only the tip of the proverbial iceberg.

Second, there is no reason to expect that any Balkan unpleasantness would be contained within Bosnia-Herzegovina's borders. As previously mentioned, the Serbs of Republika Srpska want to join with Serbia proper, and -- barring a twist of fate -- Serbia likely will soon be ruled by the Serbian Radical Party, a group that even Slobodan Milosevic thought was a bit too nationalistic. If the Radicals are in charge, the possibility of renewed Serbian militancy in locales as diverse as Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Macedonia looms large.

Those possibilities take into account only the Serbian complications. The final item of concern relates to Mostar itself. Everyone is assuming at present that the attack was carried out by a disgruntled Serb. But Mostar has very few Serbs remaining (remember that though the Serbs were certainly the leading ethnic cleansers of the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s, they were victims themselves at times), and is roughly split between Bosniaks and Croats.

From another angle, it was not only Serbs who killed Muslims. There is a distinct possibility that a Croat fired that rocket at the mosque in the early hours Tuesday. And though the consequences of Serb-initiated violence in Bosnia may be familiar -- if uncomfortable -- territory in Western minds, the foundation of the past 10 years of peace in Bosnia has not so much been Dayton as the agreement between Croats and Bosniaks to share their chunk of the territory. If that agreement shows any serious signs of disintegration, all bets will be off.

Related Headlines

STRATFOR>

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=277618&selected=Analyses

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.