University of Akron poll: DeWine up 1, Stickland leads by 12

University of Akron ^ | 10 October 2006 | Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics

[okstate]

I don't want to say this poll is bad... but it's got weird aspects. For one, it was taken over a 5 week period. For that reason alone I'm inclined to discount it altogether.

But if we take it at face value.. I doubt Blackwell can make up all this ground, but DeWine is in very good shape. The Ohio Senate race, more than any other, will be about turnout on Election Day.

[samadams2000]

We lose the gubmentship of OH could spell bad things for 08.

[CzarNicky]

29 and 25 percent undecided?

[okstate]

Yea, like I said, it's got a lot of problems. It's just weird. One good thing though, is that in the final third of the survey they said there was a large uptick in support for DeWine.

[Alter Kaker]

BS Poll -- 5 weeks of polling? So much for a snapshot.

[okstate]

Yea. There's other stuff wrong with it... check out the link (Warning.. a pdf)

[proudpapa]

If the poll was taken over the last 5 weeks it is totally useless.

[MikefromOhio]

Given the latest trends...

I'd say it's more like DeWeiner +3 or +4 and Strickland by the same margin.

In short, both races are borderline statistical dead heats....

[comebacknewt]

It is going to be impossible for Brown to keep pretending to be a moderate all the way up to Election Day. The question is whether or not Ohio voters are angry enough at DeWine to replace him with a Socialist.

I think it will be very close, but I think DeWine pulls it out in the end.

[pwatson]

any poll that is not of Registered or Likely voters is worthless. The only thing that counts are people who actually have voted in the past. When they poll all the Democrat welfare or low life don't give a darn idiots the 50% undecided because they are clueless crowd is a complete waste of time and always done to support Democrats.

[okstate]

I can agree about DeWine, maybe. But Strickland is up more like 8-12, not 3 or 4. This poll showed heavy trending toward DeWine toward the end of interviewing.

Blackwell's numbers were flat, though.

[okstate]

It's of likely voters.

[YdontUleaveLibs]

The only poll that counts is Nov 7th. Unless you are a Democrat, your polling date is Nov 8th.

[MikefromOhio]

that's not what people are hearing and I'm not even working like LS is doing.....

he's actually going door to door in a Democratic county and hearing Blackwell's name more....

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

I turst LS on Ohio. He called OH for GWB in 2004 and had it right on the money. It looks like the trend is our friend in OH. Dewine may be a RINO, but he votes consistently in favor of the GWOT.

[okstate]

I hate to speak ill of a fellow FReeper but I disagree with LS here. I don't see any way that Blackwell can win now. It's just too close to the election. DeWine can win, sure. In fact I'd bet he probably will. But I just don't see it happening for Blackwell.

[okstate]

LS did call Ohio correctly in terms of the winner, but he had the margin for Bush higher than what it was (he predicted 5 percent). The polls called it better than he did.

[MikefromOhio]

I think it will be a lot closer than you're saying.

If there is a strong turnout, Blackwell will get some wings.

[asburygrad]

Yeah - I blame Taft for being next to useless

[asburygrad]

I don't think these polls are tapping into all the support Blackwell will recieve from the evangelicals. I suspect there will be a lot of people suprised on election day.