Campaignomics

USNews &World Report ^ | October 2, 2006 | James Pethokoukis

[DredTennis]

Campaignomics Gas is cheaper. So are houses. What's up with the economy-and how do voters see it?

Could it really be as simple as falling gas prices? President Bush is enjoying a bump up in the polls: His approval ratings-as measured by the USA Today/Gallup Poll-have drifted up from the mid-30s in early June to 44 percent now, their highest levels in more than a year. And this rebound comes despite Americans' widespread unhappiness over the war in Iraq, anxiety about rising income inequality, and job insecurity bred of globalization.

Gas prices are down more than 66 cents a gallon in the past seven weeks, easing inflation worries and boosting the stock market, with the Dow Jones industrial average close to a record high. Last week, the Conference Board reported that consumers' outlook for the next six months had improved markedly since August.

An improving economy-or voters' perception of an improving economy-might just keep the GOP in control of the House of Representatives, the branch that many analysts see as most likely to change hands. At least that's the conclusion of University of Texas-Dallas political science professors Patrick Brandt and Thomas Brunell. The duo just finished testing a forecasting model that attempts to predict the outcome of the battle for the House. Their three main factors are the presidential approval rating, inflation rate (think of it as a proxy for gas prices), and unemployment rate. Using a model-generated prediction of a 43 percent presidential approval rating on Election Day, the Brandt-Brunell formula predicts the GOP will retain 220 seats, a loss of 12 seats but still enough to keep control. And every 2 additional Bush approval points would mean a loss of one seat fewer.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

I was in a county central committee meeting last night. Many if not most are what would be considered Christian social conservatives. The subject did not even come up. It will certainly not depress GOP turnout.

The Widow Carnahan won in 2000 after her husband died in a plane crash. His name was on the ballot too. Congressmen win reelection when they are under indictment for all sorts of offenses. Foley is in a heavily GOP district. By carefully designing an ad campaign, this race can definitely be won.

[magoo70804]

and Gerry Studds from Mass.

[Star Traveler]

I guess we'll see, soon. I'll definitely be interested to "look back" (to now) and see how all these comments "pan out" -- in terms of the actual elections and what "made sense" (now) -- versus -- what happens in these coming elections.

Regards,
Star Traveler

[theDentist]

Perhaps, but remember, none of this is coincidence. This is a concerted effort to make the GOP look bad and smelly and out of touch for the next month, with each days news worse than the last.

[posterchild]

I am having trouble seeing why someone would vote against their own congressman because some other congressman resigned.
Often liberal friends will point out scandals and alleged evildoings by republicans as a way to persuade me away from my conservative positions. Presumably they think my attachment to conservative principles are based on emotion or from following a charismatic leader. Somehow they think that a politican's personal failing would cause me to desire bigger government, more politicans deciding on my life's opportunities, and more taxes.

[dhs12345]

Good. I have heard the argument that the Dems did it too, eg Barney Frank.

As if two wrongs make a right. There is no justification for what he did.

We are, after all, trying to convince the voters that our party is better. And any rationalization of what Foley did will not reflect well on the Republican party.

[soccermom]

Ahhhhhh --- if only that model had a factor for the "October Surprise" variable. Whatever happened to "It's the economy, stupid!"?

I realize people like Foley have a sickness, but he is also apparently not very bright. I can't believe that any politician in this day and age would think he could get away with that stuff.

[soccermom]

"Wasn't Barney Frank a Dem? As well as Gary Condit?"

It doesn't matter. The dominant media only cares when it is a Republican. And if a Republican had gone after Foley earlier, based simply on "overly-friendly" notes, the spin would have been to label it a witch hunt again. They can't win, so they might as well go down for doing the right thing.

[mwl1]

We had better play our cards soon, because the Foley thing has wrecked our momentum.

We need something to change the subject, because the MSM is delighting in this story.

How did ABC News obtain the IMs and why did they sit on them for 6 or so weeks?

[DontBelieveAugPolls]

I'd bet more like 210 now.

The DEMS strategy when the take congress will be this:

They will continue to fund the war in Iraq but will attach tax increases to the appropriations bills.

This forces the GOP to either support the military or tax cuts. It will be politically popular for the Democrats to do this. Either the GOP supports the war and unravels 26 years of conservative policy on taxes or they abandon the troops in favor of the rich.

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

We need something to change the subject, because the MSM is delighting in this story.

Actually, we don't. The MSM delighting in the story will be its undoing.

How did ABC News obtain the IMs and why did they sit on them for 6 or so weeks?

The bloggers are already asking this question.

[DontBelieveAugPolls]

Someone is delusional

[DontBelieveAugPolls]

yes, but since the GOP actually stands for something, it doeshave an impact on them...Also in case you havent noticed the Democrat party has been in the miniority since 1994. So to assume that sex scandals havent hurt the Dems is not correct

[ClaireSolt]

You assume that people here will be completely Foley adverse. While he is not my congressman, he was next door. He was an exceptionally good congressman. We all knew he was gay. The feeding frenzy makes me mad, and my neighbors may agree. PEOPLE GETTING ON THEIR HIGH HORSE AND TALKING ABOUT THE MORAL HIGH GROUND WILL END UP HIGH AND DRY IMHO. SORRY ABOUT CAPS.

[DontBelieveAugPolls]

They wont, but it could depress turnout if this isnt handled correctly. It could also cause some undecideds to vote Democrat

[DontBelieveAugPolls]

We had better play our cards soon, because the Foley thing has wrecked our momentum.



BINGO!!!

It takes the races off of terror and security and that only helps the left

[soccermom]

"We need something to change the subject, because the MSM is delighting in this story." I'm not much a of conspriacy theorist, nor do I usually like to delude myself be attributing GOP foul-ups to a brilliant "strategerie", but have you noticed no one is paying attention to Bob Woodward's book? Could it be that the Democrats, giddy over this, really are going to wind up hurting themselves?

[greyfoxx39]

The pre election cards are being played... and one hand will up the ante on the other in the weeks to come..... next card to play is ours.

Question is, how do we play our cards to overcome the DBM's collaboration with the dems? I hope the party has some plan for this.

[Star Traveler]

You said -- "We all knew he was gay."

Well..., it's too bad I couldn't have voted *against* him, then (on that basis alone). I'm sorry I wasn't there to do that. But, then again, maybe someone wanted to put him in charge of the Boy Scouts, too (or maybe that's where he'll go next).

Regards,
Star Traveler

[NinoFan]

Some DUmmies suggested that the Amish school shootings were a GOP-orchestrated distraction to Woodward's book.