Posted on 10/03/2006 7:09:38 AM PDT by DredTennis
Campaignomics Gas is cheaper. So are houses. What's up with the economy-and how do voters see it?
Could it really be as simple as falling gas prices? President Bush is enjoying a bump up in the polls: His approval ratings-as measured by the USA Today/Gallup Poll-have drifted up from the mid-30s in early June to 44 percent now, their highest levels in more than a year. And this rebound comes despite Americans' widespread unhappiness over the war in Iraq, anxiety about rising income inequality, and job insecurity bred of globalization.
Gas prices are down more than 66 cents a gallon in the past seven weeks, easing inflation worries and boosting the stock market, with the Dow Jones industrial average close to a record high. Last week, the Conference Board reported that consumers' outlook for the next six months had improved markedly since August.
An improving economy-or voters' perception of an improving economy-might just keep the GOP in control of the House of Representatives, the branch that many analysts see as most likely to change hands. At least that's the conclusion of University of Texas-Dallas political science professors Patrick Brandt and Thomas Brunell. The duo just finished testing a forecasting model that attempts to predict the outcome of the battle for the House. Their three main factors are the presidential approval rating, inflation rate (think of it as a proxy for gas prices), and unemployment rate. Using a model-generated prediction of a 43 percent presidential approval rating on Election Day, the Brandt-Brunell formula predicts the GOP will retain 220 seats, a loss of 12 seats but still enough to keep control. And every 2 additional Bush approval points would mean a loss of one seat fewer.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
I don't think the Foley issue will have a negative impact in any district but his own. Additionally, the Democrats may overplay their reaction to it.
I personally think the online gambling issue will have more of a negative effect than the Foley scandal.
I think they will.
This is not going to affect things in November. Hey, it could be that it won't even affect the race in Foley's district.
Bingo. We have a winner.
Whatever "kebosh" is? But Foley's story may backfire on the dims, as the American people didn't want hear about him, but rather those childrne in PA and Las Vegas.
Wasn't Barney Frank a Dem? As well as Gary Condit?
You said -- "This is not going to affect things in November. Hey, it could be that it won't even affect the race in Foley's district."
That's hard to believe, since people have to actually *choose* "Foley" to elect his successor. The question was asked "Who is going to choose 'Foley' even when electing his successor?"
That's a good question and will most likely make his successor lose, too.
And it's also going to have a huge impact on the segment of the Republican Party that the GOP is depending upon for a "turnout" for this election (in order to win as much as they can) -- and that's the family values and Christian Right group. If they get disgusted with Congress in general, they'll probably just "sit it up" and cause the GOP to lose both the Senate and the House. And they're getting *quite disgusted* right now.
Regards,
Star Traveler
I doubt it, ask any Joe on the street and more than likely they haven't even heard of the man.
Most people are too busy with entertainment, sports events, movies, and eating out than they are with the overall events of the country.
There is no reason at all to address Foley until after the elections. There is no calendar associated with him because he has resigned. He can be dealt with every bit as effectively in 6 weeks as now.
Hold the House. Then cooperate with any Justice dept investigation. Done.
I am having trouble seeing why someone would vote against their own congressman because some other congressman resigned.
Even the Hastert stuff, lets say HIS voters don't turn out for him, I don't think he even has an opponent, or at least not a serious one, so there's no way he's going to lose.
Raynolds was the only person involved who looks like he's in some trouble, but I think he came out of this looking fine, because everybody agrees he took the matter to the appropriate people.
So while I'm OK with Hastert stepping down as leader, and I am concerned that some values voters WILL stay home because their own congressman doesn't thrill them and they don't see the need to "save the republicans", I hope we can minimize the damage from that.
And I like the new guy put in for Foley -- if he can win, we'll have gained valuable ground.
Actually in about a week the rat coverup will start to be the talking point out there
The online gambling industry will figure out a way to satisfy the conditions of the law and continue their business.
They might even do it legally.
**Wasn't Barney Frank a Dem? As well as Gary Condit? **
And how about Ted Kennedy???
The pre election cards are being played... and one hand will up the ante on the other in the weeks to come..... next card to play is ours.
Foley resigned and Hastert has already called for a criminal investigation so your watching and waiting is already at an end.
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