Polls find Democrats ahead in 3 vital states (Mason-Dixon, DeWine -2, Burns -7, Corker -1)

The State ^ | 1 October 2006 | Steven Thomma

[okstate]

"I've witnessed the same phenomena having researched it in 1996 or 2000. The pre-election polls were nearly always skewed to the liberal side"

Except for the inconvienient little fact that pre-election polls in 2000 were almost all skewed to OUR SIDE. 8 of 11 final Presidential national polls in 2000 favored the Republican more than what the final margin reflected. Those polls were Rasmussen, Gallup, Pew, TIPP, ICR, NBC, ABC, and Battleground (these polls found between a 2 point and 5 point Bush win). CBS and Harris got it close (Gore +1 and PUSH, respectively). Zogby called the correct popular vote outcome, but was off by about 1.5 percent on the margin (he found Gore +2).

As for 1996, you are correct, all polls showed Clinton winning with a greater margin than he actually did, but all but one of those polls were within the stated margin of error (the exception was CBS/NY Times).

[Clintonfatigued]

Conrad Burns is a goner.

I'm less worried abotu George Allen & Bob Corker. There is an undercurrent of negativity against Ford's family that voters aren't telling pollsters. And as for Allen, this poll was taken before it was learned that Jim Webb had gone into black neighborhoods and pointed fake guns at the residents while he was in the ROTC.

[Verginius Rufus]

The pre-election polls in 2000 that you refer to may not have reflected the impact of the last minute media bombshell about Bush's 1976 DUI arrest, which was made public on the Thursday before the election. If it had not been for that, Bush probably would have won by several points and had an absolute majority of the popular vote.

[okstate]

You may be right, but we'll never know thanks to the drive-by media.

[Verginius Rufus]

Maybe some voters will think Corker is a Yankee because of that song from the late 1950s:

"...my girl's a corker, she's a New Yorker,
I buy her everything to keep her in style."

Corker won the primary because two other canadidates split the conservative vote (Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary). If either of the other two had bowed out, I don't think Corker would be the candidate now.

[HostileTerritory]

I don't think Abraham was down in his last poll before the election, much less down double-digits. He had a big lead over Stabenow until September or October and she only narrowed it to single digits in the last weeks. She benefited from disproportionately high 'RAT turnout in 2000.

[HostileTerritory]

Sorry, I didn't see you said last "victory."

[no dems]

Terrill Owens' suicide will still be getting more press than Foley.

Uh, last time I checked, Terrell Owens had NOT committed suicide. Is this a new development?

[napscoordinator]

Tim Russert had both Senator Dewine and Rep Brown on for a debate. I wish that Senator Dewine had been a bit stronger in his presentation. At times, he sounded whiny. I don't know if anyone else felt that way. I hope others thought he was stronger in his views than I did.

[LS]

See? You've already forgotten :)

And this Foley person is . . .?

[no dems]

The point I was making was T. O. did NOT commit suicide as you originally stated. I think you meant Terrell Owens suicide "ATTEMPT"; which that has proven not to be the case.

Trust me, I'm on top of my game.

[LS]

I knew what you meant. I also knew, being a rabid Dallas fan, that TO did not attempt suicide. But it's irrelevant as far as the press is concerned.

[Nav_Mom]

Thank you