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Unclear and present danger
The public is still not fully aware of the gravity of the threat posed by Islamist extremists, Britain's anti-terror supremo tells Patrick Walters

September 23, 2006
BRITAIN'S top counter-terrorist cop has no doubt the nature of the threat has changed dramatically. Peter Clarke, Scotland Yard's 51-year-old head of counter-terrorism, talks with quiet resolution about the challenge of Islamist terrorism and how it has turned British policing upside down.
People often say to Clarke how well placed the British authorities must be to deal with Islamist terror given their long experience of Irish Republican Army killers.

No, he responds emphatically. It's a whole new ball game with no defined rules of engagement or carefully delineated boundaries.

"The current terrorist threat is almost the reverse of all those parameters," Clarke said in Canberra this week.

"What we see is global in origin, global in ambition, global in reach. The networks are loose, they are fluid and they are incredibly resilient," Clarke told a security conference.

Defeating the threat demands a level of resources, including sustained surveillance, unprecedented in modern law enforcement. "Unless you have pace and scale on your side, you will fail to deal with these terrorist conspiracies that we are currently seeing," he stressed.

Clarke tells Inquirer the threat posed by radical Islamists in Britain is growing in scale and complexity. "I think the only sensible conclusion is that it is ... because if you look at the pace of terrorist activity since 9/11, it's clearly unabated and there appears to be a consistency, almost a regularity, in the attack patterns.

"I don't want to sound unnecessarily gloomy, but I don't see many positive signs in terms of it being diminished."

He points out that British authorities have managed to foil four or five attacks in the past 12 months. But the "sad probability" is that another attack will get through at some time.

Clarke brings nearly 30 years of experience to his role as national co-ordinator for counter-terrorism investigations, having joined the Metropolitan Police in 1977 with a law degree from Bristol University.

His postings included a stint in the late 1990s as commander of the royalty and diplomatic protection department, with responsibility for the security of the royal family, before taking on his present job at New Scotland Yard in 2002.

Since 9/11 there has been a four-fold increase in the number of Metropolitan Police officers dedicated to investigating terrorism. In the next few weeks there will be a shake-up as Scotland Yard's anti-terrorist branch merges with the force's special branch to form a dedicated counter-terrorism command.

"That will be quite a historic change. It's a big move for us to do that," Clarke says. "That will create a single large department as big as many medium-sized police forces in the UK, which will greatly enhance our capabilities."

The Metropolitan Police will co-ordinate other counter-terrorism units across Britain's 43 separate local police forces, building surveillance, intelligence and analytical assets.

Clarke says Britain's experience of Islamist terror, including last year's London bombings and the recently thwarted plot to blow up airliners flying to the US, is driving far-reaching changes in the way police now operate.

It used to be that police would only intervene in the final stages of a terrorist plot, making arrests at or near the point of attack, with the strongest possible weight of evidence to put before a court. However, Clarke says the scale of the threat means "we can no longer afford to wait until that moment".

"It's a complete shift in scale. Mentally we have had to completely change our response in terms of interdiction and intervention to prevent an increased risk to the public."

Clarke says earlier action to pre-empt a mass casualty attack also dictates the need to engage closely with local communities as a key element of counter-terrorism strategy. He believes the British public is still not fully aware of the gravity of the threat posed by Islamist terror groups. This is despite the fact there are now 90 people awaiting trial on terrorism charges.

"We have a whole series of trials which over the coming months and years will unfold in the UK. When that hard evidence is produced the public are able to see what has been planned over the last months and years, that will contribute to their understanding of the threat."

When Metropolitan Police discovered a cache of military training equipment in the Finsbury Park mosque in January 2003, it took three years before the authorities could inform the public of the find because of contempt issues.

"From a law enforcement perspective, the scale of these investigations is simply immense. The level of investigative activity has never been higher," Clarke says.

He acknowledges that the number of people of interest to British authorities looking "right across the span of terrorist activity" is now in the thousands. These included at one end of the spectrum people prepared to mount attacks themselves, and at the other those who might simply facilitate travel or supply forged documentation, or those may one day join the jihadist cause.

"The numbers of people we have to be interested in are in the thousands but I am not saying that we have thousands of people under surveillance or that there are thousands of terrorists in the UK."

International co-operation between law enforcement authorities is critical and transnational intelligence sharing is growing all the time.

"What we are looking at is a global movement that operates across borders. They are extremely mobile. Travel is a key feature of how terrorists are planning and organising themselves."

Clarke says Britain is working closely with Pakistani authorities to better understand the extent of links with British groups, including the 2005 bombers.

The July disruption of a plot to blow up airliners travelling to the US involved the arrest of 17 suspects, of whom 11 have now been charged with conspiracy to murder.

Clarke warns it is vital that the aviation industry examines the implications of the foiled plot for air travel.

The plotters had been planning to smuggle liquid explosives on board several planes.

"I can't go into details about the methodology except to say its very innovative. That will give a clue to the fact that now in response ... new protective measures are required. The methodology is such that there must be an enduring threat to air transport."

So a serious threat to aviation safety remains which has to be addressed?

"Absolutely," comes the reply.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20459724-601,00.html

http://www.globalcrisiswatch.com/060929.php

[There are several photos from video here and also listen to the radio program, it is the top of the home page..granny...]

As-Sahab Releases "Bush, the Catholic Pope, and Darfur: The Crusader's Wars"
By Nick Grace and Richard Lafayette
September 29, 2006

The thirteenth video of al Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri was released on the Internet today by as-Sahab, the terror network's media wing. The 18-minute production, titled "Bush, the Catholic Pope, and Darfur: The Crusader's Wars," is not as well produced as previous Zawahiri messaging products and appears to have been rushed by as-Sahab "onto the street" in order to respond quickly to current events.

The video features two separate videos of Zawahiri - one which is well-produced using computer-generated and bluescreening techniques, and a second one that appears to have been hastily taped in front of a tarp in an open air environment. The well-produced segment is an 8-minute response by aZawahiri to a speech that President Bush delivered on September 7, 2006, relating to the Global War on Terror and the intelligence gains the U.S. has achieved through detainee interrogations. The second and poorly produced video is a 10-minute speech about the situation in Darfur and the controversial September 12, 2006, lecture by Pope Benedict XVI. The transition between the two segments is a hard cut in the video.

Interestingly, a key theme that has been visible in recent as-Sahab products but which is conspicuously absent from this video is al Qaeda's effort to undermine secular and moderate Muslims.

The video
The contrast between the cameras, lighting and environment used in both segments is light and day, and it is clear that the second video was recorded somewhat in haste. What remains unclear is why as-Sahab chose to bundle the two speeches into a single messaging product.

http://www.globalcrisiswatch.com/aq/060929_zawahiri.rm [38.1 Megs]

In advance of the product release onto the Internet , an animated gif banner was posted in advance on the al-Bouraq and Ekhlaas Forum message boards late on Wednesday, September 27.

The video was released in three file formats (DixX, RealMedia and 3GP) and packaged in the RAR format, which is usually used to "zip" multiple files together. The RAR files are password-protected, presumably to block the video from being opened and viewed by Web surfers who discover the files through random searches, with the password, "AVdeoC2008."

A total of four different file sizes have been posted to exactly 328 links on free file transfer sites.

183 Megs (DivX): 56 links
28.2 Megs (RM): 84 links
18.9 Megs (RM): 111 links
5.52 Megs (3GP): 77 links

Interestingly, the name of the RAR file varies on some of the links.
183 Megs (DivX): nd2-k.rar, ikjiokkkkkkawaer.rar, uytp.rar, oipf.rar, sauder4555.rar, tttttyttttyuucd.rar, 8iuuyyyyuuuu7.rar
28.2 Megs (RM): pend2m.rar
18.9 Megs (RM): dr_paN.rar, p-G3nd.rar, dr-paN.rar, drpaN.rar, N_low.rar
5.52 Megs (3GP): pGGnd.rar

The reason for the use of multiple file names is probably for security and counterintelligence purposes. In the event of a leak or mole within as-Sahab's nebulous network of Internet seeders, al Qaeda could determine the source of the leak by identifying who had access to and responsibility for a compromised file.

Segment 1
The first segment features Zawahiri wearing a white tunic and black turban and sitting in an office environment and reading from cue cards held just to the left of the camera. Close examination of the video, however, reveals that the "office" is a well-produced 3D graphic. Behind him is a flag bearing "No God but Allah" written in Arabic, a smaller desk flag, which cannot be identified, to his left and to his right a miniature model of a cannon, which symbolizes the ceremonial cannon used in the Middle East that is fired daily at sunset during the month of Ramadan to announce the break of the fast.

Indeed this segment has clearly been bluescreened. Although As-Sahab's bluescreening capabilities are increasingly sophisticated with the release of each new messaging product, the lighting used in the raw video footage is too bright against the softer tones of the background collage. The hard edges of the bluescreen matte is visible in his finger when he points upwards and also on his left shoulder, directly under the model cannon. The sides of his beard also display a "halo effect," which is a common problem when bluescreening is attempted. The "halo effect" is also noticeable in the blur of his hand and finger when he moves quickly. See examples here and here. Furthermore, the light of the lamp to his right does not contain a "hot spot" where the bulb would be and also does not shine onto the flag that "hangs" on the wall.

This segment is subtitled in English and appears to have been translated by a native English speaker. Common grammatical mistakes - leaving commas outside of end quotes - are prominent and the acronym "KIA" (Killed in Action) is used.

Zawahiri addresses President Bush, "the lying failure" and "deceitful charlatan," and focuses heavily on Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM), whose interrogations Bush specifically cited in his September 7 speech on the Global War on Terror. While stating that the "liberation" of KSM and other al Qaeda assets in U.S. custody is "a debt on our shoulders which we must fulfill," Zawahiri takes pains to make the point that KSM "has hurt you thousands of times more than you have hurt him."

Zawahiri claims that the U.S. is retreating in the face of advances by the Mujahideen in Iraq and Afghanistan, and repeatedly calls Bush a "liar" whose bluff the speech is meant to counter. "Can't you be honest at least once in your life," he states, "and admit that you are a deceitful liar who intentionally deceived your nation when you drove them to war in Iraq... And do you have the courage to stand in front of your people and tell your nation that you lied to them and drove them – and continue to drive them – to terrible things because of foolish fantasies?"

The video ends abruptly and hard cuts to the second segment.

Segment 2
The second segment features Zawahiri sitting in front of a brown tarp and appears to have been recorded in an open air environment with ambient lighting. The overall effect is odd, especially in comparision with the first segment, because the lighting is very poor and it appears that the source video was of very low quality. The sound of wind against the microphone clipped to his shirt is audible at times and the tarp ripples throughout the video. Nevertheless, Zawahiri is more relaxed in the segment as he reads cue cards to the side of the camera, gesticulates with both of his hands and even cracks a smile at one point.

This segment is not subtitled in English and its publication seems to have been rushed.

Zawahiri connects two subjects in the speech - the September 12 lecture by Pope Benedict XVI that led to outrage and riots across the world as well as the proposal over the deployment of United Nations peacekeepers to war-torn Darfur.

Regarding the Pope, Zawahiri calls him a "charlatan" and states that the Pope "accused Islam of being incompatible with rationality while forgetting that his own Christianity is unacceptable to a sensible mind." According to the SITE Institute, he calls upon the Pope and Christians to convert to Islam. "We will call upon him," he says, "and all of the Christians to become Muslims who do not recognize the Trinity or the crucifixion, and say that Allah united with the human."

He then rallies his audience to converge onto Darfur, where a largely Christian black minority is under siege from Sudanese Muslim Arabs, and states "O Muslim nation, come to defend your lands from Crusaders masked as United Nations (forces). Nothing will protect you except popular jihad."

Transcript of Segment 1
In the name of Allah, and all praise is due to Allah, and may peace and prayers be upon the Messenger of Allah, and his family, companions and allies. Muslim brothers everywhere: peace be upon you and the mercy of Allah and His blessings.

The murderer and spiller of Muslim blood, Bush, has stated that he has secret prisons, in which he holds the dangerous leaders of the group Qaida al-Jihad, including the Mujahid brother Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad (may Allah free him), and he has stated that during the three years after Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad’s arrest, the interrogators have been able to get from Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad valuable information which has helped the Crusaders to kill and arrest a number of leaders of al-Qaida.

But I ask this lying failure: who are these leaders of al-Qaida whose killing or capture was facilitated by the information extracted from Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad?! And I say to him: you lying failure!

What is the extent of your losses after the capture of Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad (may Allah free him)?

Bush – you deceitful charlatan – three and a half years have passed since your capture of Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad, so how have you found us during this time?

Losing and surrendering? Or – by the grace of Allah – attacking, seeking martyrdom, advancing and injuring you on a daily basis, with Allah’s help?

The strikes of the Mujahideen have deprived you of the pleasure of quenching your thirst for revenge with the capture of our champions, those who repeat what Abu Firaas said:

I have been captured, although my friends are not defenseless in war
Nor is my horse a foal or its master unskilled
But if the elimination of a man is decreed
Then neither Earth nor sea can save him
And my friends said, “Either flight or death”
So I said: they are two things the sweetest of which is bitter
But I will go to that in which there is no shame
And enough for you are two things the best of which is captivity
They say to me, “You’ve sold safety for death”
So I said: by Allah, I have not suffered loss
And will death abandon me for an hour if captivity doesn’t abandon me?
Death is loss, so choose that which preserves your memory
For man has not died as long as his memory is preserved.

And I tell him: you lying failure, why can’t you be brave at least once in your life and inform your nation of the disasters being faced by your forces in Afghanistan and Iraq? Why don’t you tell them how many million citizens of America and its allies you intend to kill in search of the imaginary victory and in breathless pursuit of the mirage towards which you are driving your people’s sons in order to increase your profits?

Can’t you be honest at least once in your life, and admit that you are a deceitful liar who intentionally deceived your nation when you drove them to war in Iraq under the pretext of the presence of nuclear weapons there and under the pretext of al-Qaida’s connections with Saddam Hussein, following which evidence proved that you intentionally lied and misled?

And do you have the courage to stand in front of your people and tell your nation that you lied to them and drove them – and continue to drive them – to terrible things because of foolish fantasies?

And I tell him: you foolhardy charlatan, if the arrest of Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad (may Allah free him) has helped you in the “war on terror,” why then are your forces retreating in secret from the south and east of Afghanistan and being replaced by the forces of NATO which are screaming for help due to the horribleness of what is happening to them at the hands of the Taliban and al-Qaida?

And I tell him: if the capture of Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad (may Allah free him) has enables you to inflict blows on al-Qaida, why then are your forces hastily arranging their pullout from Iraq?

And I tell him: Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad (may Allah free him) has hurt you thousands of times more than you have hurt him.

Abu Firaas says,

They boast of removing my clothes, while
My clothes are red with their blood
And a sword’s hilt whose blade broke in them
And the butt of a spear whose head was destroyed in them

Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad is a soldier of Islam who has been fighting its enemies, the Russians and the Americans, for more than 20 years.

And I tell him: Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad is the leader of a march, pioneer of an awakening and vanguard of a nation, and he has left behind him thousands who have either learned from him or learned from those who learned from him and who take as their example his life story and his continuing sacrifices and giving of himself in Allah’s path for the word of Allah to be the highest and the word of the unbelievers the lowest.

And I say to him: what you have perpetrated against Khalid al-Shaykh Muhammad and the other Muslim captives in your prisons and the prisons of your slaves in Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and elsewhere, is not hidden from anyone, and we are a people who do not sleep under oppression and who do not abandon our revenge until our chests have been healed of those who have aggressed against us.

And we, by the grace of Allah, are seeking to exact revenge on behalf of Islam and Muslims from you and your soldiers and allies.

So persevere – if you can – through the horrors of war, because we – with Allah’s help – are persevering.

Al-Baroodi (may Allah have mercy on him) said,

When the people call on each other and the spears cross
And the war turns on its axis
When the people want to flee from death
And the horses’ chests heave and the blows become severe
And when the empty earth turns with us as if we
Have drunk of a cup from which no one awakes
I persevere in it until its sky clears
And I persevere when misfortune strikes

Bush, you deceitful charlatan: you’ve captured Ramzi Yousef, Umar Abd al-Rahman, Wali Khan, Ibn al-Shaykh, Ramzi bin al-Shibh, Khalid al-Shyakh, Abu al-Faraj al-Libi and hundreds of Mujahideen and champions of Islam in your war against Islam which you call the “war on terror.”

And you agents in the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan have captured thousands of the youth and soldiers of Islam whom you made to taste at your hands and the hands of your agents various types of punishment and torture.

But we, by Allah’s grace, are taking revenge on their behalf daily from your troops and the troops of your allies and agents in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, the Arabian Peninsula and all Muslims countries from Indonesia to Morocco, and moreover, on your own soil every day.

And the terribleness of the fighting only increases our determination to sacrifice and give of ourselves in the Path of Allah.

Abd al-Rahman, son of Hassan bin Thabit (Allah was pleased with them both) said,

I am from an honorable people who increase in
Hostility and courage with the severity of events

Bush, you deceitful charlatan: be aware that the liberation of our captives is a debt on our shoulders which we must fulfill, with Allah’s help and power.

And be aware, you deceitful charlatan, that you are not facing individuals or organizations, but rather are facing the Muslim nation in which the spirit of Jihad flows and which refuses humiliation under Zionist/Crusader arrogance.

So are you able to kill or capture the nation of Islam?

Therefore, stop the bluffing that you have captured so-and-so and killed so-and-so, because Iraq and Afghanistan are overflowing with the bodies of your KIAs, and their buddies are fleeing from death to death, suicidal and despondent.

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[I think the President spoke for your new thread subject, this morning..]

30 September 2006
Bush Says Iraq Action Has Not Worsened Terror Threat

Says United States will keep its commitments to Iraqis who desire liberty and peace

President Bush rejected the notion that the 2003 U.S. and coalition military action in Iraq has worsened the threat from terrorism. He also warned that a premature withdrawal from Iraq would embolden extremists.

Speaking September 30 in his weekly radio address to the American public, Bush made his comments in reference to portions of the classified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that recently were leaked to the press and, in the president’s words, have “created a heated debate … and a lot of misimpressions about the document's conclusions.” (See related article.)

The president said the NIE concludes that extremists are exploiting four factors in an effort to attract supporters.

“[F]irst, long-standing grievances such as corruption, injustice, and a fear of Western domination; second, the jihad in Iraq; third, the slow pace of reform in Muslim nations; and fourth, pervasive anti-Americanism,” he said.

He warned against “buy[ing] into the enemy's propaganda that the terrorists attack us because we are provoking them,” and said the United States and Americans are targeted by terrorists because “they hate everything America stands for, and because they know we stand in the way of their ambitions to take over the Middle East.”

The president said the United States “keeps its commitments to those who long for liberty and want to live in peace,” and would not withdraw its forces from Iraq until their mission is accomplished.

“We will stand with the nearly 12 million Iraqis who voted for their freedom, and we will help them fight and defeat the terrorists there, so we do not have to face them here at home,” he said.

A withdrawal also would embolden extremists, he said. “It would help them find new recruits to carry out even more destructive attacks on our Nation, and it would give the terrorists a new sanctuary in the heart of the Middle East, with huge oil riches to fund their ambitions.”

The president also said that the only way for the United States to protect its citizens is to go on the offensive against terrorists around the world.

“When terrorists spend their days working to avoid capture, they are less able to plot, plan, and execute new attacks on our people,” he said.

An audio link to the president’s remarks is available on the White House Web site.

Following is the transcript:

(begin transcript)

THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary
Saturday, September 30, 2006

RADIO ADDRESS BY THE PRESIDENT TO THE NATION

THE PRESIDENT: Good morning. Today I want to talk to you about a matter of national security that has been in the news -- the National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism. The NIE is a classified document that analyzes the threat we face from terrorists and extremists. Parts of this classified document were recently leaked to the press. That has created a heated debate in our Nation's capital, and a lot of misimpressions about the document's conclusions. I believe the American people should read the document themselves and come to their own conclusions, so I declassified its key judgments.

The National Intelligence Estimate confirms that we are up against a determined and capable enemy. The NIE lists four underlying factors that are fueling the extremist movement: first, long-standing grievances such as corruption, injustice, and a fear of Western domination; second, the jihad in Iraq; third, the slow pace of reform in Muslim nations; and fourth, pervasive anti-Americanism. It concludes that terrorists are exploiting all these factors to further their movement.

Some in Washington have selectively quoted from this document to make the case that by fighting the terrorists in Iraq, we are making our people less secure here at home. This argument buys into the enemy's propaganda that the terrorists attack us because we are provoking them. Here is what Prime Minister Tony Blair said this week about that argument: "This terrorism isn't our fault. We didn't cause it. It's not the consequence of foreign policy." Prime Minister Blair is right. We do not create terrorism by fighting terrorism. The terrorists are at war against us because they hate everything America stands for, and because they know we stand in the way of their ambitions to take over the Middle East. We are fighting to stop them from taking over Iraq and turning that country into a safe haven that would be even more valuable than the one they lost in Afghanistan.

Iraq is not the reason the terrorists are at war against us. Our troops were not in Iraq when terrorists first attacked the World Trade Center in 1993, or when terrorists blew up our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, or when they bombed the USS Cole, or when they killed nearly 3,000 people on September the 11th, 2001. Five years after the 9/11 attacks, some people in Washington still do not understand the nature of the enemy. The only way to protect our citizens at home is to go on the offense against the enemy across the world. When terrorists spend their days working to avoid capture, they are less able to plot, plan, and execute new attacks on our people. So we will remain on the offense until the terrorists are defeated and this fight is won.

In my recent speeches, I've said we are in the early hours of a long struggle for civilization, and that our safety depends on the outcome of the battle in Iraq. The National Intelligence Estimate declares "perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere." It also says that "Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight."

Withdrawing from Iraq before the enemy is defeated would embolden the terrorists. It would help them find new recruits to carry out even more destructive attacks on our Nation, and it would give the terrorists a new sanctuary in the heart of the Middle East, with huge oil riches to fund their ambitions. America must not allow this to happen. We are a Nation that keeps its commitments to those who long for liberty and want to live in peace. We will stand with the nearly 12 million Iraqis who voted for their freedom, and we will help them fight and defeat the terrorists there, so we do not have to face them here at home.

Thank you for listening.

(end transcript)

(Distributed by the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

http://usinfo.state.gov/utils/printpage.html