Don't forget Reynolds btw.
I certainly haven't forgot Reynolds - I just haven't quite settled on where to put NY-26, except I know that I'm not anywhere near ready to predict a partisan turnover there.
It's worth noting, BTW, that NY-26 is more GOP than FL-16, and yes, the Dems are now funding independent ads in OH-15.
Survey USA today poll this week had Reynolds up just 45-43 with 8 for the Green. The green got bounced from the ballot after the poll was done, and now Reynolds had prior knowledge of the Foley thing. Add those together, and it has to be "lean dem"
I've moved Reynolds up to #23. It's still a work-in-progress for my next 'official' revision, but here's the GOP Top 30 on my House list right now.
Lean Democratic
1 (CO-07) Beauprez*
2 (TX-22) DeLay*
3 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
4 (IA-01) Nussle*
5 (IN-08) Hostettler
6 (IN-09) Sodrel
7 (IN-02) Chocola
8 (CT-02) Simmons
Toss Up
9 (FL-16) Foley*
10 (PA-06) Gerlach
11 (NY-24) Boehlert*
12 (PA-10) Sherwood
13 (NC-11) Taylor
14 (KY-04) Davis
15 (IL-06) Hyde*
16 (PA-07) Weldon
17 (OH-15) Pryce <<
18 (WA-08) Reichert
19 (CT-04) Shays
20 (WI-08) Green*
21 (VA-02) Drake
22 (OH-01) Chabot
Lean Republican
23 (NY-26) Reynolds
24 (NM-01) Wilson
25 (CO-04) Musgrave
26 (FL-22) Shaw
27 (MN-06) Kennedy*
28 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
29 (CT-05) Johnson
30 (OH-18) Ney*