Lopez Obrador Attempts to "Oaxacanize" Mexico: Hoping Chaos will Force a New Election (Translation)

La Crónica de Hoy ( Mexico City ) ^ | September 27, 2006 | José Carreño Carlón ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

The Oaxacanization of the Country: From the Myth of Fraud to that of Ingovernability

It was left clear this week, the connection between the insurrectional strategy of Oaxaca and that of AMLO, which already seems to be weakening between desertions and the universal loss of prestige.

The difference is one of perspective:

For AMLO and his landscaped spaces it was considered vital to exhibit as a survival certificate the oxygen tank which he offered to the Popular Assembly of the People (sic) of Oaxaca (APPO) to identify its goal with that of the defeated presidential candidate: that of preventing the President elected at the ballot box from taking possession [of his office].

Whereas APPO slowly came around to this form of escalating its offensive against the capital of the republic and several states "the strategy of the Oaxacanization of the country," it has [instead] come to strengthen their Oaxacan enemies.

The great beneficiary was Governor Ulises Ruiz, because the threat of an APPO on the national scale is conducive to bringing down with it the institutional framework of the country, in light of the insurrectional threat.

And among the most prejudiced are those, from the PRD, PAN, and his own PRI, who would like to settle scores with the Oaxacan Chief Executive and are demanding his head since the disassociation speech of APPO with the "civil resistance" of AMLO and with any other expression of radicalism or sedition. They "swore" it was a justifiable local opposition facing an evil local government.

Everything began on Sunday, as [said] the title of a book published in 1963, with illustrations by Alberto Beltran and comments from Elena Poniatowska on Mexico City, its environs, and some provincial cities nearby.

But this time it happened last Sunday in the course of the program of Denisse Maerker on Televisa's Channel 4. There, the leader of APPO, Flavio Sosa terrified the audience with his unconvincing explanations of the assault at the hotel where they attacked Ricardo Rocha and [Oaxacan] state legislators and with his rhetoric fully assimilated within that of AMLO. He spoke of his preparations for the "peaceful popular mobilization in the capital of the country"; and that "the 2nd of July witnessed the rejection" of neoliberalism; and that "society no longer accepts this economic system"; and that "it is a referendum on what happened July 2nd, and the mobilization is a questioning of obsolete laws and out-of-date institutions."

And it all continued on Monday, with the warning of Jesus Lopez Rodriguez, of APPO's Provisional Directive Commission, which came as celestial music for AMLO, but also was political life insurance for Governor Ulises Ruiz, which thus verified the "partial confession" of the AMLO-APPO alliance against the electoral result: "we will not let Felipe Calderon take office as President," the leader exclaimed, if Ulises [Ruiz] does not leave office.

The boastfulness of the AMLO-APPO embrace continued in the press on Tuesday, with the welcoming and the offer of support in which the government of the Federal District and the PRD anticipated the Oaxacan march for, with their members, a return to the occupation of encampments in Mexico City, at the end of next week.

Closing Ranks Before the Escalation and APPO's Tardy Reflections

Also on Sunday, but in Milenio,¹ the headquarters gathering information that "APPO itself is cultivating against four governors," three of them PRD members and one from the PRI, coincidentally identified by his dispostion to accept the electoral result which gave Calderon the victory: respectively, Pablo Salazar Mendiguchia, from Chiapas; Zeferino Torreblanca, from Guerrero; Lazaro Cardenas Batel, from Michoacan, and Fidel Herrera, from Veracruz.

Another Sign of AMLO-APPO Identity, Difficult to Hide

Nearly 700 social and political organizations have decided to emulate the Oaxacan movement throughout the country, the Milenio article terrifyingly reports.

The myth of electoral fraud, AMLO's strategy thus transiting into the construction of the myth of ingovernability, seeing if with this one does manage to prevent the President-elect from taking possession [of his office] and forcing a new election.

In the growth of the APPOs in the Oaxacan style, AMLO seems to be finding his strongest point, but at the same time it appears that there APPO is finding its weakest point, in as much as it is strengthening its enemy, the Governor of Oaxaca, who is closing the ranks of institutional Mexico [behind him], showing an APPO used by AMLO in his scheme of making life impossible for the new government.

From which AMLO, from his perspective, has decided yesterday to plant among those who he considers his legislators an alert message against the application of the law and the use of public force against those he considers the new meat of ingovernability: the Oaxacan movement. While the Oaxacan leader Flavio Sosa himself took pains on Ezra Shabot's news program (W Radio) in a speech of affection for the law and separating [APPO] from the PRD, it is too late and unconvincing after the week's events.

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Translator's Notes:

¹ I am fairly certain this refers to Milenio Magazine, which is located in Mexico City.

[StJacques]

I am in little doubt that the next phase of the Mexican post-election controversy will be fought in Oaxaca. And from a number of newspaper reports I have read on several Mexican web sites recently, it appears that the Mexican federal government may be preparing to use force to bring an end to the chaos there. According to an article published yesterday by El Universal columnist Ricardo Aleman, the intervention could come within a few days. These same sentiments have been voiced elsewhere and the very recent change in tone in APPO's public declarations, the above article gives you some of that, suggests that they understand that some very rough times may be ahead for them. I'm not entirely convinced that the Mexican federal government will act, because it is becoming increasingly evident that the people of Oaxaca are turning against APPO and possibly even their PRD managers.

One of the things upon which there seems to be a broad consensus, as developed in this article and elsewhere, is that AMLO is intent upon spreading what has come to be called la vida imposible (the impossible life) as a protest to Calderon's election. So the linkage of the crisis in Oaxaca, whose state government has been virtually shut down since May, to that of the national election and national institutional life, is a development that could have dangerous portents for the future. One thing that AMLO and the PRD need very badly to regain traction for their protest is a cause célèbre, and the sight of federal police agencies -- I think the PFP (Federal Preventive Police) will likely be called upon if force is used -- going after protestors in Oaxaca in defense of Ulises Ruiz, whose corruption and mismanagement of the Oaxacan state government are very well understood. But it may be that the Mexican federal government comes to the conclusion that the problem of the "ingovernability" of the country is such that they will have to respond to ensure Calderon's assumption of the presidency.

There are great risks to a forceful Mexican federal government response. I will keep my eye on this as we proceed.

[StJacques]

A Mexican Affairs and Latin American Left ping.

[Fiddlstix]

If memory serves, Oaxaca has always been a trouble spot in Mexico.

[StJacques]

Your memory serves you quite well Fiddlstix. Perhaps not as much as its next-door neighbor to the south, Chiapas, but still quite a bit. The original Mexican "homegrown" drug operations depended upon Oaxaca for marijuana and opium poppy cultivation, making the state pretty much "off limits" to federal authority. But that also brought underdevelopment along with it, because it scared development away. And if you go very far back you will find that Oaxaca was the center of violent revolutionary activity going back to Emiliano Zapata.

[StJacques]

Could you please explain why this was moved from "News/Activism" to "Bloggers and Personal"? This is a published editorial on a situation which threatens mass civil disorder in Mexico, immediately south of our border. I have obeyed the rules here and I respectfully argue that this belongs back on the "News/Activism" forum. This is not a "personal blog."

[MelonFarmerJ]

I respectfully second the request of StJacques to move his ongoing posts about the situation in Mexico back to News/Activism.

[Texan5]

Good God-I'm convinced that Obrador and his faction are certifiably insane. I'm so glad I don't have any relatives living and working in Oaxaca.

[Paperdoll]

This pit bull just won't let go, will he?

[StJacques]

"This pit bull just won't let go, will he?"

Personally, I prefer "snake" for this analogy.

Lopez Obrador is proving what I've always said about the Left. They are more about the "destruction of their enemies" than anything else.

[Kenny Bunk]

I respectfully second the request of StJacques to move his ongoing posts about the situation in Mexico back to News/Activism.

Jim, this is a most important news story, St. Jacques is providing a valuable translation service for us, and acting as a 'link clearing house.'

There is a concerted effort being made to take over our major oil supplies and supplier. There is a concerted effort underway to destabilize Mexico, with potentially catastrophic consequences for us.

On another level, this is Freerepublic's opportunity to scoop the MSM.

[StJacques]

We're back on News/Activism now. It's ok.

[redgolum]

Sounds like things are heating up. Any hints of foreign powers aiding Obrador? (Venezuela?) Great work StJack!

[norton]

There are great risks to a forceful Mexican federal government response.

And the risks of NOT taking forceful action...?

[StJacques]

". . . Any hints of foreign powers aiding Obrador? (Venezuela?) . . ."

The answer is yes and I'll give you a couple of quick links on Mexico's expulsion of Venezuelan Ambassador Vladimir Villegas back in November, 2005 for interfering in Mexican politics and Vicente Fox's very recent accusation that Chavez is continuing this interference:

Vladimir Villegas, Venezuela, and Mexico

Fox Accuses Chavez of Continued Meddling in Mexican Internal Affairs

[StJacques]

"And the risks of NOT taking forceful action...?"

They may be even greater norton, it's a very good question. My personal viewpoint is now that the people of Oaxaca seem to be standing up and demanding action from the federal government that it creates a window of opportunity to control the public spin on the action.

[StJacques]

Okay, I've got a "Oaxaca Situation" update, which I'm posting late, though I hope many of you will catch up to this tomorrow (Friday).

The Mexican Governmental Secretariat (Segob) has summoned APPO and the teacher's union to a Friday meeting at which they will present proposals for a solution to the conflict in Oaxaca. Here is the story.

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Segob will present solutions to the crisis in Oaxaca to APPO

The federal dependency summons the teachers to a meeting for this Friday at 11:00 a.m.

Juan Arvizu
El Universal
Mexico City
Thursday 28 September 2006

3:57 p.m. The Governmental Secretary summoned APPO and Section 22 of the SNTE [teacher's union] to a meeting this Friday in Mexico City, with the end of presenting a series of solution proposals to the Oaxacan conflict, which brings together their dialogue with other sectors of society, Undersecretary Arturo Chavez Chavez announced.

"Over the past days we have had intense conversations with other sectors of Oaxacan society," who of late desire the return of normality, and who have proposals which will be put to the consideration of APPO and Section 22 [of the teacher's union], said Chavez Chavez, Undersecretary of Government of the Governmental Secretariat.

Right up to 2:00 p.m., on a day in which the tension has grown over an eventual intervention of public force in the city of Oaxaca, the governmental functionary declared that in Bucareli they are working intensely to put "negotiated exits" to the conflict on the table.

--------Note: "Bucareli" is the Mexico City avenue where Segob is located.--------

During the past few days, in which the directors of APPO and Section 22 withdrew from the governmental dialogue table, the functionaries of the dependency [i.e. Segob] continued their contacts with social directors, businessmen, religious leaders, as with the principal persons of the political class of the state.

Chavez Chavez said that he counts a range of possible ways of solution, which will themselves be presented to the unsatisfied who insist upon the exit of Ulises Ruiz from the governorship of the state.

The two organizations were summoned through their leaders Flavio Sosa, from APPO, and Enrique Rueda, from Section 22.
The meeting will take place in the Revolution salon of the Governmental Secretariat, at 11:00 a.m. this Friday, and the federal government team will be headed by Secretary Carlos Abascal Carranza.


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And in the meantime, APPO is fortifying the barricades in Oaxaca City, evidently expecting a showdown.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Felipe's "reform proposals" do NOT excite:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/377893.html

Good thing the Senate's voting on the border wall tomorrow...

[StJacques]

Felipe's initial proposals are, in my opinion, designed to create domestic consensus behind his presidency, not to promote reform. If AMLO's protests continue, the prospects for reform could be the real casualty.

[supremedoctrine]

Achmen nutjob and Chavez were here a day apart, with different styles and very different overall reactions to both of them, official, and otherwise.But the salient fact I take away from those delirious few days which taught us all so much is they are regional equivalents to one another, with the Iranian much the stronger, and more effective: they see a major role for themselves: Chavez playing the same role in power, dollars and influence in various Latin American venues that Achmenut plays with Hezbollah, while he spreads Venezuelan money (oil) around wherever he thinks it will buy him notoriety/ He will fail where and in ways the Man from Iran has already succeeded (through the agencies of Syria, Lebanon, and Hezbollah.)

[StJacques]

Wait two and a half months and see where Chavez is around December 1 when the opposition candidate has galvanized the opposition. Just wait. Rosales isn't going to win, but he's going to hang the bell around Chavez's neck and he'll sneak up on no one after that. Hugo's days are numbered.