Big Mo in GOP's Corner

WASHINGTON -- Even the most partisan Democrats have said all year they expected their 6- to 10-point advantage over the Republicans in the party-preference polls to tighten as Election Day neared.

But certainly no one expected the midterm congressional elections to tighten as much as they have so early in the general election cycle.

Earlier this month, the Gallup Poll reported a 4- to 6-point advantage for the Democrats, which fell to 2 to 3 points, and is now down to a "dead heat" among likely voters who say they will vote Republican (48 percent) and those who say they will vote Democratic (48 percent).

This is not to say the GOP will dodge the bullet and still hang on to majority control of the House. Democrats have maintained an advantage all year among registered voters and still do. But historically, the turnout record among registered voters has lagged behind likely voters, a group that pollsters consider to be a much more accurate measurement of the electorate's preferences.

Midterm elections tend to draw a smaller voter turnout than presidential elections, and Gallup pointed out, in an analysis of their latest findings, that if the race is a dead heat nationally among likely voters, Republicans have the potential to offset the Democrats' lead among registered voters "with greater turnout" from their base. That's because the Republicans are better at the voter-turnout game than the Democrats -- a talent they demonstrated in 2000, 2002 and 2004.

But for the first time this year, Gallup not only said the battle for control of Congress is a dead heat, it said that if the GOP's much-improved numbers "persist until Election Day, it suggests Republicans would be able to maintain their majority-party status in the House."

All of this is the result of some amazing campaigning by President Bush (that has lifted his anemic job-approval scores to 44 percent) and several weeks of speeches refocusing the nation on the war on terrorism and connecting it to the war in Iraq. Polls show his strategy has been a key factor in moving the numbers in the GOP's direction.

Democratic strategists such as Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network, conceded that Bush's efforts to elevate the terrorism issue in the campaign "has been marginally effective. The Republicans got a bounce out of the 9/11 speech. The president does have the ability to change the debate in the country. The problem is, it is not sustainable."

In fact, additional polling data released by Gallup within the past week or two suggested that not only is the president changing the voters' attitudes on the Iraq war but the Democrats' failure to shape a clear, convincing message about dealing with terrorism and Iraq has hurt them.

Here's what the nonpartisan Gallup Poll has to say about all this in a separate analysis of its numbers:

"Americans are more positive about the war on terror, and voters are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush on terrorism rather than one who opposes him. By a slight margin, Americans tend to think that the country will be safer from terrorism if the GOP retains control of the House, rather than if the Democrats take control.

"And voters are now as likely to say that the war in Iraq is part of the war on terror as say it is not," Gallup said.

Missing from all the yearlong political analysis we've heard about the GOP's troubles is the unspoken realization that the Democrats are in deep trouble, too. To be sure, a majority of Americans still disapprove of Bush's handing of the war in Iraq, but only one in four now "believes the Democrats have a clear plan on Iraq -- fewer than those who say this about the Bush administration," Gallup said.

"Also, Americans are about equally likely to say they would vote for a candidate who supports President Bush on Iraq as to vote for a candidate who opposes Bush," the analysis said.

What should worry Democratic campaign officials "is the fact that only 14 percent say the Democrats have a clear plan but Bush does not, while a greater percentage (23 percent) says Bush has a clear plan but the Democrats do not," Gallup said.

This is all pretty strong stuff from the premier polling organization in the country, known for its caution and evenhanded approach to the vicissitudes of voting trends in the elections.

But a survey of the past week's polls and what is happening in many of the races appeared to confirm Gallup's findings.

The Los Angeles Times, which polled 1,347 registered voters, last week reported, "On virtually every comparison between the parties measured in the survey, Republicans have improved their position since early summer.

"In particular, Republicans have nearly doubled their advantage when voters are asked which party they trust most to protect the nation against terrorism," the newspaper said.

Of course, this election will not be decided by a national vote but by who wins in some 30 competitive congressional districts and a half-dozen Senate races. There's no doubt the Democrats will gain seats on Nov. 7, but Gallup's numbers suggest the Republicans clearly have the momentum right now.

2 posted on 09/28/2006 4:26:39 AM PDT by Molly Pitcher (We are Americans...the sons and daughters of liberty...*.from FReeper the Real fifi*))

They're going to have to start doing better soon in individual state and district polls though or I think some Repubs are going to start losing confidence.

The NY Slimes and CQ projection pages have now put the TN Senate race into the tossup category. Corker had better get moving. Beyond TN though, polls are not looking good in many other Senate and House races. We can only hope those polls are wrong or that the GOP has an extraordinary GOTV effort.

Even though the generic ballot isn't that important I'm sure it'd kill Gallup if the GOP took the lead in their next poll.

The President was in town yesterday for a huge Corker fund raiser, not one word in the local rag!!!

It is not just the Blacks in Memphis that are supporting Jr., but a lot of wealthy whites.

I guess that they just don't care about political corruption. I can't believe that I even voiced that thought, of course most people in Memphis proper don't care about honesty.

As long as the media stays focused on the war on terror and the improving economy, the GOP is safe.

Every election year, it's the Year Of The Democrats, all year long. The pollsters chant, "This is your year. Dims are poised for a landslide. America truly loves only you."

Suddenly in September, the public sees and hears actual Democrat candidates. And it all falls apart again.

It's like watching Lucy hold the football for Charlie Brown. You just know what's going to happen. But Charlie is so hopeful.

If the Republicans start believeing this stuff they really will be sucked into a massive defeat in Nov.

What is Lambo smoking? Every poll I am looking at this week shows a significant trend toward the RATS.

This is an odd situation where the national polls are trending the right way, if only slightly, but local and state polls are looking disastrous. Again, we can only hope they are wrong, of that the GOP surges late as they did in 2002. Santorum has never been ahead, Dewine, Talent, and Burns have been trailing for months. Not ALL those polls can be wrong. I hope some of those guys will bounce back. But as of right now the situation is not good.

I devoutly pray the President continues "campaigning." Seldom has so much hinged on an election. If the Dems have the upper hand, President Bush will be drawn and quartered in an impeachment process, Iraq will be abandoned and terrorists will cheer America's surrender. The Bush legacy will be worse than failure, it will be catastrophe upon catastrophe, for the man and for the nation---and therefore, for the world.

Worst case scenario for us in the Senate:

Montana: loss
Ohio: loss
Pennsylvania: loss
Rhode Island: loss
Missouri: loss
Tennessee: loss
New Jersey: win

Result: 51 Repubs (with Cheney's vote), 49 dems and 1 Independent who caucuses with the dems.

I don't see us losing both Tennessee and Missouri, although it is possible. The only way the dems can take control of the Senate is for Allen to lose, and that's not going to happen. I believe we'll keep the House, but we'll lose between 8-10 seats. All in all a successful election for the Repubs, although I'm sure it doesn't sound that way.

O'Donnell (running to replsce Beauprez) in Colorado just came out trashing the Bush foreign policy vis-a-vis Iraq. I wanted to help him hang on to that seat, but I've definitely lost my enthusiasm in the last 24 hours.

Too many pubbies are peeing on their base while pandering to Weenieworld. That ain't a-goin' to help 'em.

oh no!

Hewitt has hinted at some of this man's independence...

Wonder what he'll be saying about this...

speaking of Cook co...Gary Sinise is on Laura Ingraham's show right now...he's appearing at some USO deal in DC, it sounds like...'

16 posted on 09/28/2006 8:24:30 AM PDT by Molly Pitcher (We are Americans...the sons and daughters of liberty...*.from FReeper the Real fifi*))

"I predict gains for the GOP"

Sorry, no way...the same polls and trends that pretty much guaranteed us a win in 2004 despite what the media was saying now show congressional losses. Unless something changes or a few candidates catch fire, we will lose at least 5 and probably 8 house seats, but no more. The senate is scarier. We are in deep trouble in Ohio, Penn. Montana, and RI (no loss that one). We may gain a seat in NJ (unless they cheat again and bend the law with a candidate swap. If trends continue, I see 2-4 seat loss in the Senate, if we are lucky. Virginia is improving. Cannot speak to MO.

17 posted on 09/28/2006 8:38:47 AM PDT by Jim Verdolini (We had it all, but the RINOs stalked the land and everything they touched was as dung and ashes!)

Look for McGavick to pull out a win in Washington.

He's got momentum and the money to go all the way.

The Times has the Dems on a Senate role. The Pubs better hold the Red State seats or Reid will be majority leader. Of course, one always distrusts the Times on polling. So, it is closer than even Gallup says.

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