Posted on 09/27/2006 8:45:45 AM PDT by MNJohnnie
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1708787/posts
Declassified Key Judgements from the April 2006 NIE Director of National Intellegence ^ | 09-26-06 | DNI
NOTE: The link is receiving many hits and is only available intermittently. This conversion from PDF to HTML is courtesy of PRND21 in #11. AM
Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate .Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States. dated April 2006
Key Judgments
United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al- Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.
• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.
• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.
• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida, could erode support for the jihadists. We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti- American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.
• We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the Homeland.
• The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking Western interests. Extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate recruitment and staging for urban attacks, as illustrated by the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.
We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.
• The Iraq conflict has become the .cause celebre. for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight. We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.
• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq .jihad;. (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims.all of which jihadists exploit. Concomitant vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged that, if fully exposed and exploited, could begin to slow the spread of the movement. They include dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related conflicts, the limited appeal of the jihadists. radical ideology, the emergence of respected voices of moderation, and criticism of the violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim citizens. •
The jihadists. greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution.an ultra-conservative interpretation of shari.a-based governance spanning the Muslim world.is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists. propaganda would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade.
• Recent condemnations of violence and extremist religious interpretations by a few notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that could facilitate the growth of a constructive alternative to jihadist ideology: peaceful political activism. This also could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of broader Muslim communities in rejecting violence, reducing the ability of radicals to capitalize on passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror.
• Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders. If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit.
Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role.
• The loss of key leaders, particularly Usama Bin Ladin, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller groups. Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the mission, the loss of these key leaders would exacerbate strains and disagreements. We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qa.ida.
• Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks against Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat.
• The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qa.ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations. Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al- Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.
• We assess that such groups pose less of a danger to the Homeland than does al- Qa.ida but will pose varying degrees of threat to our allies and to US interests abroad. The focus of their attacks is likely to ebb and flow between local regime targets and regional or global ones. We judge that most jihadist groups.both well-known and newly formed.will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks focused primarily on soft targets to implement their asymmetric warfare strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist attacks in urban environments. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics.
• CBRN capabilities will continue to be sought by jihadist groups. While Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, remain the most active state sponsors of terrorism, many other states will be unable to prevent territory or resources from being exploited by terrorists.
Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.
• We judge that groups of all stripes will increasingly use the Internet to communicate, propagandize, recruit, train, and obtain logistical and financial support.
I've been able to find a Great aunt who has a cooking pot (medium sized kettle) listed on my immigrant ancestors 1820's estate.
His grandson's 1840s (two houses built about 1820 joined into one) log cabin was still standing when I visited recently. I hear it's supposed to be relocated and used as a historical museum, but no news for last couple years.
There's one branch of unreasonable relatives (Dems who still hold a CW grudge) who probably inherited other trinkets, but most was sold off or passed through maternal lines. I study genealoy, and was able to find that this branch owned slaves...one of several brothers. My ancestor and his other brothers had little or no contact with the slave owner bunch.
Mostly just inherited lots of stories!
You don't get it
Share cropping and other things that happened after the Civil War were unfair to the South, but none of that would have happened if they hadn't brought the war on themselves. No one is arguing that the North didn't do some things that were wrong, but the things that the North did that were wrong and unfair after the war wouldn't have happened if there hadn't been a war. And frankly, if the North had been REALLY bad, they could have executed the leaders of the Union, both political and military and they did not do that. The leadership of the Union is lucky they didn't meet with ropes and bullets in the late 1860s. And the southern Democrats did more then their share to keep blacks in bondage, forcing them to vote Democrat, creating the KKK, lynching and murdering blacks to keep them "in line", on and on and on. 90% of the bad that happened to the South in the 1800s and the first half of the 1900's was brought about be their own actions. The South carried out the actions they chose, and with action comes consequence. Don't do the crime if you can't do the time. The South paid a heavy price, and they earned it too.
As proven time and time again, a LIEberal lawyer can interpret law 100 ways...if it doesn't fit their agenda they consult FOREIGN law.
Until you get a brain transplant, learn a little American History neither will you.
LET "THEM"??? Seriously, I'm saying this with a smile okay? :) Who do ya think you are anyway? You're no more a "southerner" then I am, and I'm disagreeing with you too okay? :) Come on now. Take a deep breath. You're getting upset like this happened yesterday. It's nearly ancient history, and the Civil War along with the destruction of peaceful Native American tribes along with the warlike ones are the two big things that I wish could be erased from American history. But you are attacking people who have more then proven their dedication as CONSERVATIVE Republicans here, YEARS before your presence here, and you're attacking them personally just because they disagree with you on this and you are not being fair or represeting conservative values in your posts. Respect is a two way street. The proper response for somone disagreeing with you is not personal attacks. That's not fair no matter where someone lives.
Your Saying Rawle is a Lefest he was a good friend of GW!
i'm attacking them becasue they attack my history my Hero's if they attack i will attack its that simple i am 100% proud of people like John C Calhoun i'm not a Republican i'm a Conservative
Any real Conservative, repugnant as the choice is, would vote for McCain to keep Billary out of the White House. As repulsive and RINOesque as McCain is, a RINO is better then a Liberl Democrat. But it's up to Conservatives to be active and vote in the primaries and NEVER allow a RINO like McCain or Giuliani to get the nomination. That's the point. Much as it would disgust me to vote for someone like McCain, Hitlary Clintoon would do more damage to this country then McCain, with a CONSERVATIVE GOP Congress to keep him in check. That's the bottom line all conservatives better look at. But in reality, McCain and Giuliani will not get the nomination. It will be a real conservative, and that's all there is to it.
Exactly right, two Democrats. :) Liberal and liberal-lite. No difference.
I don't know him from Adam....don't put words in my mouth. Crissy Matthews wrote a book, doesn't make him an AUTHORITY on the subject.
Is it an insult to call a Northerner a Yankee? I hope not because I call my very best friend, my Yankee friend. I guess I better stop. When did it become like the "N" word? I don't mind being call a cracker. Europeans call all Americans "Yankee" - I don't take that as an insult.
I know American History unlike Gop Yankee Lap Dog's like yourself Licoln is no more Conservative then Slick Willy
I know of books used at Harvaard and Stanford that were written by well educated men who condone homosexuality as an acceptable way of bringing up children with knowledge of. Does that make it right? There are plenty of books on the Civil War that totally disagree with this person's opinion on it, and you consider them to be invalid. You are opinion driven, not fact. You hold up that book because it's the one you have that stands up to your perception of the events. Most do not see it that way. I'm sorry.
Damn you must be old to have FIRST HAND experience....I'd say enlighten us, but that might take you all day!
So you're saying that you WOULDN'T vote and risk a flat out socialist pig like Hillary being elected just because McCain got the nomination (which he won't)? That's just wrong. If conservative values are really important to you you would vote for McCain if you HAD to if that's what it took to help keep Hillary out of office. McCain is a RINO gutless media love bunny head case, but he's not a flaming socialist liberal pig like Hillary. Evil is still evil, but the lesser is still less. I'd hate voting for McCain, but I'd hate having President Hillary Clinton MORE than I'd hate voting for McCain. What would be served by not voting and helping Hillary get elected? All that would do is show I was stupid and didn't vote for the least liberal person available and waste my vote that my father fought and bled for me to have. I won't do that. But it's moot because no RINO will get the GOP nomination. Bank on it.
"GOP Play Book"???? You are sounding more and more like a DUmocrat.
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