Posted on 09/25/2006 5:03:11 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Ultimately, this race will come down of haterd for George Bush vs. love of country. It will be a struggle between those who would put party over country and those who understand America. AS the choices become clearer we will move further out in front.
I hope you are right.
You reallly have a great post here.
Do not forget 1998 when Newt and the GOP were counting on 20 House pickups minimum due to Clinton Scandals and his 6 year itch. Well the GOP hatred of Clinton caused them to lose 3 seats and the resignation of Gingrich.
Is this similar to 2006? With all the blood from the left towards Bush?
Well, they do also have the media running around the country trying to find anybody who will say a republican said the n-word 30 years ago.
WOW. The "Iowa Electronics Market" is surging for the House GOP. Up to 57% to hold the House its highest level since June
They also have the GOP to lose the House at only 35% its lowest level since May.
History also said the party in power loses seats in the second year of an administration. Didn't happen. History is for the birds after redistricting---and I'm a professional historian.
LS thank God you are here. Too many Timid Republicans here.
The 6 year itch is a myth debunked by Clinton in 1998.
Remember how the GOP was going to lose the House in 2002 because of the Historical 2 year itch and the GOP had only 221 seats back then with a strong Gephardt as DEM leader.
LS also, are you familar with Iowa Electronics market mate?
The GOP and GOTV better get out to Indiana and help Hostettler, a New Poll form a Newspaper has him down 14 to Ellsworth.
People aren't stupid. They say they will vote Democrat now, but when they get to the booth they are going to think about what matters to them most.
You can skew a poll any way you want and the media does. Come election day, the only seats that will change hands are the ones being vacated by the polls who are retiring or going to jail.
Prior to 1998 the 6-year cycle usually was much worse for the president's party. However, circumstances often were very different. For example, in 1974 the economy was in a pretty bad recession. And after Watergate, many Republicans felt dispirited. The GOP losing 43 seats was a disaster of course. In 1966 the Dems lost 38 since things were not going well in Vietnam. I just don't think voters are as unhappy or rebellious now as they were then.
1986 was a very odd election with Repubs losing only 5 House seats but taking a drubbing in the Senate by losing 8 seats, and their majority. President Reagan's popularity was still fairly high then, before Iran-contra, and the economy was not bad as I recall.
So you never can tell with midterms. Often there are surprises. For now I will trust Michael Barone, that walking encyclopedia of political and election knowledge. He says the GOP keeps a majority in both houses. At least as of now.
Good point Andy. And the liberal media seems to forget that in 1994 the DEMS had many retirements both in the House and Senate. The GOP maybe has 5 or 6 competitive open House seats to defend? And one Tennessee Senate Seat open?
TCN, 1986 was bad for the GOP Senate because many of the losers were GOP Freshman Senators who won in 1980 due to Reagans Landslide. They were very weak accidental Senators.
Those who lost:
1. Fla-Hawkins(Graham)
2. Wash-Gorton
3. Denton(Shelby) Ala
4. GA-Mattingly
5. ND- Andrews
6. SD- Abdnor(Daschle)
7. East NC ( DIED)
That is the reason
Barone said that? that is great if he says the GOP will hold the House. He is very respected.
I remember. That was devastating. Andrews and Abdnor also lost because farm state economies were doing poorly that year, as I recall. I still can't believe patriotic Alabama threw out former POW Jeremiah Denton though. And so many of those races were very close. Of course it could have been even worse as some GOP senators, like Steve Symms and Robert Kasten, were narrowly reelected.
Besides those 7 you mentioned, we lost 2 others. But we gained one with Kit Bond replacing Sen Eagleton in MO so the net loss was 8. Mikulski replaced the retiring "moderate" Republican Sen Matthias in MD. And a Democrat named Harry Reid replaced the good Sen Laxalt in NV. Whatever happened to Reid anyway? ;>
How old are you? Five? The economy is not bad but that is a reckless statement that doesnt stand up to scrutiny unless your lifetime is so short you havent entered Kindergarten yet. I can think of several times during the Reagan and Clinton years when it was lots better. Of course I can definitely remember the Carter years when it was much, much worse!
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