The GOP will pick up seats: Here’s why part 4

This installment will focus on some of the reasons the Democrats will lose 2 to 5 seats in November, that have not been highlighted by the pundits and “experts” who have busied themselves telling us how the House is going to change hands.

22) The Economy is now in the best shape it has been in our lifetime 23) The meaning of Bush’s improved voter numbers 24) The Clinton magic is over 25) The Supreme Court decision of Gitmo detainees 26) The never ending millstones around their neck 27) Generic poll foolishness 28) Naming the vulnerable Democrats 29) What about the military Democrats, the bunch the call the Band of Brothers?

Notwithstanding questionable polls whose internals contradict their so-called “findings” it is clear to everyone that we really are in the best economic shape in our lifetimes. One of the bell weather indices used in the past to measure economic strength has always been the “homelessness” census in America’s cities. We have heard very little about homelessness lately and here’s why.

In seven of America’s largest cities, all controlled by Democrats, the percentage of homeless has dropped by an average of 25% in recent years

Interagency Council on Homelessness reported in The Weekly Standard June 19, 2006

With the homeless population falling, so to have opportunities for voter fraud, a favorite Democrat crime so intertwined with homelessness.

“For the first time, Forbes magazine's list of the 400 richest Americans consists exclusively of people worth $1 billion or more. As a group, the people who made the rankings released Thursday are worth a record $1.25 trillion, compared with $1.13 trillion last year.”

8.3 million U. S. households worth 1 million or more. This is a record number of such households. More than 930,000 of these households arrived at this level in just 2005 alone. USA Today April 20, 2006

When Roper asked 1,017 people “Do you have more, the same or less credit card debt compared with a year ago?” They got this: Same, 48%, Less, 36, More 10%, Don’t know 4%. USA Today May 2, 2006

Despite the constant lying drum beat of “42 million medically uninsured/under insured people” (if anyone was truly not medically insured he or she would be turned away from health care services. Our system of health care is falling apart precisely because no one gets turned away- ever), the death rate in America fell 2% last year. This was the biggest one year drop in deaths in America since World War II. Source: Website: National Center for Health Statistics

There are more Americans working and more Americans living in their own homes than ever before. There is less unemployment than there has been in decades. The “Tax Freedom Day” for America has moved up from May 3rd in 2000 to April 17th because of Republican tax policies.

Americans feel the difference and will vote their back pockets, because contrary to the foolishness the media gives us, people just don’t vote one way or the other based on whether the guy down the street is working or under employed.

No matter what the Democrats say about the economy people know the truth. They may respond to Democrat pollster push polls in ways that say they think the economy is in bad shape, but the everyday numbers on spending, low unemployment ( New York City at 5.3% lowest in five years), and low new applications for unemployment insurance tell a much different story. Consumer confidence in the economy's prospects improved in early April, 2006 even as gasoline prices and borrowing costs marched higher.

On August 1, 2003, Nancy Pelosi asked a question: “Where are the jobs Mr. President?”

Since that date, the George W. Bush economy has gained at least 5.6 million jobs.

“Fifty-five percent (55%) of Americans say they are better off today than they were four years ago. A Rasmussen Reports national opinion poll of 5,000 adults found that 36% disagree and say they are not better off. “The sense of progress is found across most demographic groups. Fifty-six percent (56%) of men and 54% of women say they are better off today. That view is shared by 55% of white Americans, 52% of black Americans, and 58% of all other Americans….

“And, as you would expect, there are partisan differences. However, the partisan differences are less significant than found on many issues. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Republicans say they are better off than four years ago. That same answer is given by 40% of Democrats and 51% of those not affiliated with either major party.

“State tax receipts jumped nearly 10 percent last year as a strong national economy increased individual earnings and corporate profits. “Most states showed increases without raising tax rates, meaning the gains were caused primarily by an expanding economy, said Corina Eckl, fiscal program director for the National Conference of State Legislatures.

"It's absolutely attributable to an improving national economy," Eckl said. "Very few, very modest tax changes happened last year."

“Nationally, changes in state tax laws accounted for less than 1 percent of increased tax revenue.” Said Bert Waisanen, a fiscal analyst at the National Conference of State Legislatures.”

“…Broadway had a banner 2005-2006 season as theatergoers snapped up a record-breaking 12 million-plus tickets.

Box office revenue also increased by 12 percent to a whopping $861.6 million compared to last season's $768.5 million take.

”Florida's unemployment rate in May was 3.2 percent, the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation said Friday. That's up from 3 percent in April and far below the nation's 4.6 percent unemployment mark.

South Florida has a lower jobless rate. Palm Beach County reported a 3 percent unemployment level while Broward County reported 2.8 percent. While those figures remain near the lowest mark ever recorded for the state…..”

“The report released [recently] by the Giving USA foundation estimates that in 2005 Americans gave $260.28 billion, a rise of 6.1 percent, which approaches the inflation-adjusted high of $260.53 billion that was reached in 2000.

As is usual, individual giving was the largest source of donations, accounting for an estimated $199 billion, or 76.5 percent of the total.

“An unexpectedly steep rise in tax revenues from corporations and the wealthy is driving down the projected budget deficit this year, even though spending has climbed sharply because of the war in Iraq and the cost of hurricane relief.

“On Tuesday, White House officials are expected to announce that the tax receipts will be about $250 billion above last year's levels and that the deficit will be about $100 billion less than what they projected six months ago. …..Tax revenues are climbing twice as fast as the administration predicted in February, so fast that the budget deficit could actually decline this year.

“The main reason is a big spike in corporate tax receipts, which have nearly tripled since 2003, as well as what appears to be a big increase in individual taxes on stock market profits and executive bonuses.

“The jump in receipts is providing Mr. Bush and Republicans in Congress with a new opportunity to assert that tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 are working and that Congress should make them permanent.

Corporate Layoffs Were Down 24% Between Aug. 2005 And Aug. 2006. (Rex Nutting, "Layoff Announcements Bounce Back In August," MarketWatch, 9/5/06)

The Total Number Of Displaced Workers Dropped Nearly 30% Between 2003 And 2005 Compared To The Previous 2-Year Period Studied. (U.S. Department Of Labor Website, http://www.dol.gov/asp/media/reports/workforce2006/factsheet.htm, Accessed 9/4/06)

The U.S. Economy Grew At A 4.2% Annual Rate During The First Half Of 2006, Faster Than Any Other Major Industrialized Country. (The White House, Press Release, 9/1/06)

The Economy Has Grown By $1.51 Trillion, Or 15.3 Percent, Since President Bush Took Office. (Bureau Of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/gdplev.xls, Accessed 9/7/06)

Average Gas Prices Fell More Than 22 Cents In The Last 2 Weeks - The Average Is About 35 Cents Lower Than This Time Last Year. ("Gas Prices Drop By About 22 Cents," Chicago Tribune, 9/11/06)

Consumer Price Inflation "Moderated" In Aug., Rising Only 0.2% As Gas Prices Dropped. ("Inflation Takes A Breather In August," MarketWatch, 9/15/06)

Retail Sales Increased 0.2% In Aug. And Are Up 6.7% In The Last Year. ("Retail Sales Rise 0.2% In August," MarketWatch, 9/14/06)

Productivity And Real Hourly Compensation Each Grew 1.6% In The 2nd Quarter. ("Unit Labor Costs Up 5% In Past Year, At A 16-Year High," MarketWatch, 9/6/06)

Productivity Is Up 2.5% In The Last Year; Real Hourly Compensation Is Up 3.6%. ("Unit Labor Costs Up 5% In Past Year, At A 16-Year High," MarketWatch, 9/6/06)

The ISM Services Index Jumped From 54.8% In July To 57% In Aug. And Has Been Above 50% For 41 Straight Months (Above 50% Indicates Expansion). (Institute For Supply Management, Press Release, 9/6/06)

The Empire State Manufacturing Index Increased From 11% In Aug. To 13.8% In Sept. (Over 0% Indicates Expansion. ("New York Factory Activity Holds At Modest Pace In Sept.," MarketWatch, 9/15/06)

In 2004, George W. Bush increased the number of votes he received, as compared to 2000, in forty seven states. Why so many “experts” think nothing of this fact is a curiosity. Nevertheless, none of the issues of 2004 that got him those votes has turned against him by any honest observation.

Nevertheless, some would argue that the Iraq war issue has turned against Mr. Bush, but has it?

When open ended non forced choice surveys are conducted to determine voter concerns, Iraq as an issue scores somewhere between a low of 14% and a high of 25%. The economy is either just ahead or just behind Iraq.

It seems these surveys never ask “Are you mentioning “Iraq” because you want more vigorous prosecution of the war?”. They always attribute any mention of Iraq as an indication that the respondent wants to vote Republicans out over the war. This just isn’t so.

As always, President Bush will be a great asset campaigning for GOP candidates. His improving poll numbers indicate that conservative Republicans have had their concerns aired and they are “coming home”. The Democrats offer nothing in the way of an alternative most conservative Republicans would find appealing. They have to look to the past for their “stump stars”.

A recent RNC press lease explained that its poll of Republican “Likely Voters” revealed that 80% said they were definitely voting and definitely voting Republican. It went on to say another 14% said they would probably vote and when they do they would vote Republican.

Having George Bush by your side as you campaign is a valuable and saught after asset for many many GOP candidates. He will campaign hard and he will pull some Republicans over the finish line.

“Sara Rowan put on her best spring outfit and plunked down $2,500 Monday night to pose for a photograph and chat with the true power in the White House — Laura Bush.

“…The first lady is riding a wave of popularity. Americans gave her an 82 percent approval rating in a January poll by CNN, USA Today, and Gallup. It was among the highest ratings Gallup's ever recorded for any first lady. She fared well across party lines, with 97 percent of Republicans, 81 percent of independents and 69 percent of Democrats approving of her.

“[Said] Bruce Buchanan, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Austin. "There's no one remotely associated with the administration who is at that popularity level."

FORT LAUDERDALE — His poll numbers may be slumping, but President Bush still can raise money.

Bush helped U.S. Rep. Clay Shaw, R-Fort Lauderdale, rake in more than $800,000 Monday at a fund-raiser attended by about 350 at the home of auto magnate Michael Maroone, organizers said.

N.B. As of mid July the Bush team of fund raisers had raised 189 million which was more than TWICE the amount raised in all of the 2002 cycle.

“Most American voters now say there's no way they'd vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton if she runs for president in 2008 — while just 16 percent are firmly in her camp, a stunning new poll shows. The Gallup/CNN poll found that 51 percent say they definitely won't vote for Clinton (D-N.Y.) in 2008, another 32 percent might consider it, and only 16 percent vow to back her. That means committed anti-Hillary voters outnumber pro-Hillary voters by 3-1.” Gallup Poll results.

Just as her husband, Mrs. Bill Clinton will be of limited value campaigning for other Democrats. Bill Clinton’s track record of campaigning for eventual winners is very poor. He was about 2 for 14 in 2004.

“A Hillary Clinton rally drew critics of President Bush, nonpartisan voters looking for a strong leader, and people who want to elect a female president. ..About 20 people attended the Tuesday event, the national kickoff for Hillarynow.com, a grass-roots group pushing to draft the New York senator and former first lady to run for president in 2008.

“Organizers hoped to have 200 people at the event in Nashville, a city selected to show that Democrats can win in Southern states.”

N.B. A Time magazine reader survey conducted in August found that almost as many respondents reported hating Hillary Clinton as those who reported “loving” her, Love, 37 hate 35. And 50% said she should run while 50% said no. The worst news, however, was that 59% said they would NOT vote for her. This from people who read Time, a group that is not a Republican leaning collection of people.

The importance of Time’s asking these questions can not be over looked. It is doubtful that any national publication would even ask these questions just two years ago.

The Gitmo Prisoners’ Case:What the Supreme Court Really Did, And How the Press Blew the Story

“Because the Hamdan case was not up on my favorite research site at Cornell Law School early this morning, I read the press coverage first and the decisions afterward. The press has only a superficial understanding of the case, and missed the most important aspect of the decision.

“The court ruled 5-to-3 Thursday that Mr. Bush acted outside his authority when he ordered Al Qaeda suspects to stand trial before these specially organized military commissions. The ruling said that the commission process at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, could not proceed without violating US military law and provisions of the Geneva Conventions. "The commission lacks power to proceed," writes Justice John Paul Stevens for the court majority. “

Explaining the connection between votes cast for Republicans and putting judges who will follow the Constitution on the Supreme Court has always been a strong suit for George Bush. The activists on the federal bench have provided plenty of examples for Bush to use and he will use them to full advantage.

Chances are Democrat appointed federal judges will likely give him even more outrageous decisions to point to as we get closer to Election Day. This issue has been a powerful weapon before and there is no reason to think it will not be this cycle.

After seventy five years of drawing power from a conglomeration of special interest groups, the weight of these groups has now turned on the Democrats and it is collapsing the minority party.

The Democrats have become indistinguishable from America’s fringe groups. Identifying with these groups has now become a millstone pulling down the Democrats

"The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in the Keystone State shows Democrat Bob Casey leading Santorum 50 percent to 41 percent. That's the first time in all six polls we've conducted on this race that Casey's lead has slipped to single digits. It's also the first time Santorum has moved above the 40 percent mark since last July," Mr. Rasmussen said.

"However, another aspect of the poll might be even more encouraging for Santorum ... and troubling for Casey.

"After asking survey respondents who they would vote for, we informed them that the National Organization for Women (NOW) is concerned about Casey on the abortion issue and is endorsing another candidate in the primary. We then asked a second time about how each respondent would vote. Twenty-four percent of Casey's initial voters changed their mind upon hearing this news. Half switched to Santorum while the others split between 'some other candidate' and 'not sure.'

"The change was dramatic enough that, having heard the new information, voters favored Santorum by a 5-point margin (46 percent to 41 percent). This suggests a lack of voter knowledge about Casey that could make the race more competitive than it seems at this time."

The Big Labor is a millstone pulling them down. “Labor Leader: We are weak. Period.”

“New York Senate candidate Jonathan Tasini is a longtime labor supporter and former official with the United Auto Workers. He happens to be a big advocate of a bill in Congress that would replace secret ballot elections with the anti-democratic “card check” procedure.

“Maybe it’s because he holds a dim view of union officials’ ability to currently attract new members. As he wrote in his blog July 9: [ Here’s how he sees Big Labor at this point]

We ARE weak. Period. If we want to debate whether the current sub-8 percent representation in the private sector is better than 6 percent, I'll pass: it's sort of like debating whether you'd rather by [sic] a Kansas City Royals or a Pittsburgh Pirates fan--it's ugly either way.

“We are essentially irrelevant in most parts of the private sector economy, and even more so if you take out industries that can't pick up and move abroad (e.g., hospitals and casinos). We build a powerful labor movement by acknowledging that we are close to dead. Meaningful labor law reform will not happen in the near future--and I think that it is a fantasy to believe in it (certainly if we don't stop supporting Democrats who have no interest in labor's revival beyond rhetoric).”

The demands that Democrats support gay “marriage” pulled the minority party down in the 2004 two election ( losing all 11 ballot initiatives) and they will do it again.

The National Educational Association is a millstone pulling them down. Washington Teachers Union Refuses Union Dues Transfer Away from Abortion Support

WASHINGTON, United States, June 22, 2006 (LifeSiteNews.com) – The teachers union of Washington state has refused to allow a Christian teacher to have her union dues diverted to an organization that fights sex-trafficking, reported Focus on the Family’s CitizenLink yesterday. Teacher Susan Wiggs objected to the Washington Education Association’s support of abortion and gay marriage and requested that her union dues be directed to Shared Hope International, a charitable organization dedicated to the eradication of sex trafficking and slavery of women and children. The union rejected her choice, saying Shared Hope was not qualified. Lifesite.net June 06, 2006

The mainstream media is hurting the Democrats as it loses credibility Atlanta Journal and Constitution June 21, 2006

"Treason is very much in the realm of specific acts pertaining to the national security of the nation, and I don't think being a whiny liberal qualifies as treason." Perhaps, but it comes close.

Take, for example, the senseless comments of Natalie Maines, lead singer of the Dixie Chicks. Maines created a firestorm a couple of years ago by telling a British audience she was ashamed that President Bush is from her native Texas.

“…Like every gasbag with a soapbox before her, from Jane Fonda to Barbra Streisand, Natalie Maines has no clue what it took in blood, sweat and sacrifice to obtain the freedom she now so blithely takes for granted. Unfortunately for us, her celebrity gives her a mass forum with which to waste our time, and her fame lends an air of credibility to her obtuseness.

“Not to be outdone, pop star Conor Oberst and his band Bright Eyes… Oberst called President Bush "an idiot." Wow. Now there is a dissertation of cogent analysis for you.

It has become standard operating procedure for celebrity elitists to bash the president and America's involvement in Iraq.

The very noticeable amount of anti Semitism on the far left’s blogs have created a problem the Democrats could never have foreseen. They have viciously attack Joe Liberman as JEW Liberman and worse.

In Virginia a leftist media chick sounded like a Nazi interrogator when she demanded to know details about Senator George Allen’s Jewish family roots. That may have cheered the crazies on moveon.org and the DailyKos, but the rest of America was not happy with such talk.

The second amendment is still a very important point to many Americans. The constant false claims of anti second amendment groups continues to put the Democrats back on their heels when they try to explain how their positions differ from their own. The NRA is clearly winning the battle to preserve and defend the second amendment. This organization provided the momentum to swing West Virginia permanently into the Republican camp and is the reason why the president won Arkansas and Tennessee as well as stayed competitive in other states around the country. The NRA was very instrumental in taking away Tom Daschle’s seat in South Dakota.

Recently we have heard half of the story of a generic poll that told us which party Americans prefer to run Congress. The poll seemed to say America prefers that the Democrats be in charge of the House

The half of this story that was so breathlessly reported by the old media trumpeted the fact that the Democrats had a 10 point lead in a generic poll asking which party the respondents wanted to be in control.

After the old media finished salivating from the orgasmic rush it got from this news, they ran to report it. “Why mess up a good story by checking the fact?” after all.

It is not hard to picture the excitement when this news hit the wires. A scene reminiscent of reporters running to a bank of phone booths in a 1940s black and white movie comes to mind. Visions of little men wearing weather beaten fedoras with pencils stuck above their ears, dance across one’s mind. You could almost hear them: “Boss! Boss! I’ve got the scoop of the year! We’re ahead 10 points boss! We’ll be back in power by next January, boss!”

The problem is, it’s all an illusion. The numbers are built on “registered voters” not “likely voters”.

When questioned about the difference, as it relates to this particular poll and its results, a spokesman for Gallup, the firm that conducted the poll, admitted history dictates that most of the people who responded to this survey will ultimately turn out to be “non voters” and not “likely voters”.

Question: Accepting this data, where is the momentum? Which side is on the slide? Which side is growing stronger?

Recently, Gallup explained that, given the history of generic polling of “adults” and registered voters” instead of the more costly polling of “likely voters”, (those who will really vote in November,) the Republicans are probably actually up by as much as 4 points.

Given the other factors that will influence the coming election, a 4 point Republican lead could very well lead to a 2 to 5 seat pick up in the House.

Gallup’s poll’s showing Democrats up 11 points may be as much as 15 points off.

In the 50th Cal. special election, Republican ideas won by about 10%. If there were anything at all to the generic polls showing the Democrats plus 11 in generic polls at that time, the Democrat would have won easily.

The leftists in the media, and the cowardly Republican “talking heads” who suck up to them, don’t ever mention the “registered” versus “likely” voter difference.

They discuss the coming election as if the opinions of non- voters will have any weight and the numbers of today are certain predictors of the outcome of November’s election. Maybe so, but what consideration do they ever give to intervening events? None.

These people just aren’t made of enough integrity to do some research and tell the truth. They really don’t care about searching for reasons their theories WON’T hold up.

There is no science to their approach, only child like excitement and a wish to believe the best or the worst. They may be right. I may be wrong, but I have to ask: where is the empirical evidence?

If they are all so sure about their predictions why don’t they hold them up to scrutiny? Why don’t they ever speak about logical and predictable “intervening events? Answer: Reporting “Oh no the Republicans are going to lose!” gets you so much more attention than “Ho hum, the GOP will pick up a few seats in the Fall.”

That would take honesty from the left and courage from the “conservatives”. It is easy to understand why the left would lie by omission, but it is disheartening to see how the people who are supposed to be helping us have handled these polls.

For these “conservatives” with few exceptions, it is apparently much easier to be pessimistic and get along, than to do some research and earn the money someone is paying them.

Figuring out which Democrats are in danger of losing their seats is not difficult. Waiting for the liberals to name names is a sucker’s play. They won’t do it. Waiting for the suck up “conservatives” to talk specifics and name names is just as foolish.

In just about every generic poll from 1992 on, the Republicans have trailed going into Election Day, sometimes very badly. To put generic polls in perspective, 1994, the exception to the general rule, saw Republicans plus 6 in final generics. We picked up 53 seats.

If we are anything better than -3 we will gain seats. This makes a 48/48 tie very encouraging.

28) Naming the vulnerable Democrats The magic number for a Democrat take over of the House is a net pick up of 15 seats. If you think the Democrats will win those 15 seats I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to talk to you about.

Brad Miller, won with 59% in North Carolina, but has a few pro illegal and anti family far left positions that will be a problem against his strong conservative Black Republican challenger. Miller voted against HR 2389 , R.C. 385 to Protect the Pledge of Allegiance, and keep the courts from taking the words “….. under God” out of the pledge.

John Barrow, won with 52% in Georgia one of the strongest Republican states in the country. Although Barrow has voted correctly on the tax cut extensions, the special redistricting that was done in 2005 has made more Republican.

Jim Marshall, Georgia won with 63% but is now faced with running in a new congressional district which is more Republican. He is also forced to run against a well financed and popular conservative former congressman named Mac Collins.

“..He has already been forced to vote along with Pelosi against building new oil refineries and drilling in ANWR. He voted against repealing the Death Tax; despite, representing small farmers and businessmen who are negatively affected by this arcane legislation.

“He also supported almost every funding bill for an unpopular and ineffective United Nations. Including the scandal plagued United Nation’s Population Fund which has been tied to China’s One Child Program of forced abortions and sterilizations. Frankly enough said. Come Election Day Marshall will be taking a midnight train back to Georgia”.

“ Jim Marshall and Cynthia McKinney joined today to vote against H.R. 4681 - The Palestinian Anti-Terrorism Act of 2006. The Palestinian Anti-Terrorism Act passed the House of Representatives by a vote of 361 to 37. “I would question why anyone would vote against this bi-partisan stand against terrorism. Jim Marshall should justify his refusal to condemn Palestine’s terrorist government to the voters of middle Georgia,” said Ted Prill, Campaign Manager for Congressman Mac Collins (Ret. R-GA).”

“For a person to become a naturalized American Citizen they are required to speak, understand and write Basic English according to American Red Cross Citizenship Project. Congressman Jim Marshall does not seem to understand that fact and has voted to spend our taxpayer funds to spend taxpayer money on bilingual ballots (Roll Call Vote 340, 06/28/2006).

“Mr. Marshall must therefore be asked why we need to spend our family's hard earned money when American citizens are required to understand English to vote. …After this vote and his previous vote to give illegal immigrants food stamps, I wonder if representative Marshall remembers he represents Middle Georgia and not Mexico." said Bill Hagan, a spokesman for Congressman Mac Collins (Ret. R-GA)

Chet Edwards, won with 51% in Texas as state that has been increasingly hostile to Democrats.

Voted Against The $70 Billion Tax Relief Package. (H.R. 4297, CQ Vote #135: Adopted 244-185: R 229-2; D 15-182; I 0-1, 5/10/06)

Craig Romero the GOP challenger has raised more than a million dollars and with the loss of tens of thousands of Black, automatic Democrat voters there is a really chance for a pick up here.

Melissa Bean, won with 52% in Illinois and has been identified by the Democrats themselves as one of their most vulnerable members. Bean had Labor problems that now seem to be smoothed over.

Bean was one of only 74 ( all Democrats ) who voted against HR 5683, Roll Call 386 July 19, 2006 “To preserve the Mt. Soledad Veterans Memorial [ cross].”

Alan B. Mollohan West Virginia. Yes he was reelected with 68%, but he is quickly becoming the Justice Department’s poster boy for corrupt Congressmen. He will have big trouble explaining away an 11 million dollar improvement in his personal wealth since 2000.

Micheal Barone's Almananac of American Politics rates his district as a GOP +6. If Mollohan resigns, this should be a Republican pick up. If he does not, he will eventually have to explain why he has turned down 7 invitations to explain himself at 7 different debates.

The nature of redistricting being what it is, the number of truly competitive seats in this country stands at less than 20. Developments and time have proved the Democrats pronouncements of “40 competitive seats” to be nothing but hot air.

With the exception of Barrows, each of these Democrats come from districts that voted for George Bush in both 2000 and 2004. The tailwind from the GOP coming home surge suggests that some, if not all could lose.

If only three of these people go down, it means the Democrats would then need a net pick up of 18 seats. Even the most excitable staffers at the Daily Kos can’t believe that will happen. It is hard to see, given the return of conservative voters how all of these Democrats survive.

Since 1972 candidates that had more than $200,000 more than their opponents win 93% of the time. This data points to at least one loss, but the surge, the surge, the surge. The surge is here and building.

Analyzing the winning margin numbers for the 24 House members who won with less than 55% shows how hard it will be for the Democrats to regain the House.

Of those who won with 53% or less, there are 9 Democrats and 8 Republicans. At each winning margin level down, The Democrats have more members in trouble than the Republicans do.

Barring anything not on our screens right now, where are the grounds to say the Democrats have this election sewed up?

The answer is there aren’t any. Moreover there are many indicators that the Democrats have not changed sufficiently to ward off another losing election.

No matter what the media, the Democrats, and some feckless Republicans say, America is not ready to trust its life to Democrats. No one can make a credible case to the contrary. National security will continue to be one of the top issues and as long as it is, Democrats will not regain power.

Finally, although the raw empirical data for victory over these Democrats is not strong, in each case there are factors that provide voters with a rationale to throw them out. In view of this, the surge could catch some or even all of them.

They are a band of frauds. Only three have even a small chance of winning. The rest are running against incumbents who last won with anywhere from 65% to 84%!

A Democrat “Brother” drops out and along with him the Democrats hopes of winning one of their target races dies

Many people don't know this, but when a long shot challenger gets into a race, he or she must put up about $50,000 of personal money. Since last spring, “military” challengers the Democrats thought would bring them victory have been falling away.

In North Carolina the Democrat’s Band of Frauds challenger to GOP Rep. Robin Hayes has called it quits. This was one of the races that the “experts” added to their list of seats the Democrats could pick up and regain the House. It was a ridiculous choice to begin with and now it is over. The Democrats now find themselves another seat away.

Although she was backed by every big Democrat in America, and same day voting was allowed, Band of Frauds candidate Tammy Duckworth just barely beat out moveon’s candidate. That was because Duckworth is not a member of the “surrender immediately” gang.

Because of their military experience the crazys from moveon hate these candidates to begin with. Duckworth’s limp condemnation of the war, turned the moveon crazys off. They will not work for her. Since she had to move into the district and is thus a carpetbagger, Duckworth will not have an easy race and is no sure bet to win in November.

The Duckworth candidacy has shown that the rank and file "moveon, crazy Domocrats" won't support anyone connected with the military who doesn't demand an immediate surrender.

“Christine Cegelis has announced that she will not endorse Tammy Duckworth The moveon backed Cegelis explained that she will not back Duckworth “…because she has reservations about Duckworth’s positions on universal healthcare and free trade, a source close to Cegelis’s campaign said.”

That can’t be helpful for a challenging new comer where the retiring Republican won with 56%, let alone the others who must put up $50,000 of their own money for the chance to face a 65% and above winner.

Duckworth has NOT been a wild eyed anti war warrior. THIS is why the crazy Democrats have come to hate her. This is no surprise. They will not back any of the band of frauds who does not foam at the mouth against the war.

Health care and free trade????? Please IF Duckworth can't convince the old knee jerk rank and file Democrats she is in favor of these things and she can't convince the crazy Democrats she hates the war and Bush, and she doesn't live in the district where do her votes come from?

If you think the Band of Frauds movement is anything but a surrender effort? Think again.

”Iraq war veteran Nathan Martin, a Republican running for the seat held by retiring Rep. Michael G. Oxley, Ohio Republican, showed voters the importance of principles when he turned down a $100,000 support-and-endorsement offer from a veterans group.

”The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America Political Action Committee [ an anti war group] tried for a couple weeks to convince Mr. Martin to accept its endorsement, which included $2,100 in donations, a media buy and direct mailings on his behalf, but the candidate couldn't come to grips with taking it.”

This group of veterans wants an immediate surrender in Iraq. If they would try this with a Republican candidate, what kind of pressure are they putting on the Democrat’s Band of Frauds?

The far left of the Democrat Party will not support any military experienced Democrat candidate who does not toe the line. Since there are only 6 [ of over 50 to begin with] who do want an immediate surrender, and 3 of those are on suicide missions against 70% plus Republican winners, this whole Band of Frauds program is a joke.

“Cruising to an easy Democratic primary win, LEO newspaper founder John Yarmuth said last night that he is ready to challenge five-term Republican U.S. Rep. Anne Northup for the 3rd District seat.”

Democrat David Ashe has dropped out of the race for the 2nd District congressional seat currently held by Republican Thelma Drake. The Virginian-Pilot Feb. 14, 2006

The latest polls show Curt Weldon Rep (Pa.) a Democrat target, up by double digits over his Band of Frauds challenger.

Next week’s installment, number 5 will be posted at 8AM Monday Oct. 2. It will cover these reasons:

The tide is roll our way. They have nothing to offer but "I hate Bush. You hate Bush, vote for me."

Ultimately, this race will come down of haterd for George Bush vs. love of country. It will be a struggle between those who would put party over country and those who understand America. AS the choices become clearer we will move further out in front.

I appreciate the enthusiam of the author. However, the cliche about the party in power losing seats in year six so reliably comes true (even in '86, when Reagan was riding high) that it is close to an iron law.

It could well be that modern computerized gerrymandering will keep the House losses to a minimum.

That, combined with the Dem Party complete unwillingness to truly soften its stand on social issues. The MSM is always looking for a "fiscally conservative/socially 'moderate'" Republican Party (moderate meaning pro-abortion and buggery). If the Democrats ever wised up and became "fiscally liberal/socially conservative" they would get a whoile of votes that they wouldn't have now, drowning out any lefty third party attempt. For now, the social lefties continue to run things disproportionate to their numbers and loses the party seats.

Do not forget 1998 when Newt and the GOP were counting on 20 House pickups minimum due to Clinton Scandals and his 6 year itch. Well the GOP hatred of Clinton caused them to lose 3 seats and the resignation of Gingrich.

Is this similar to 2006? With all the blood from the left towards Bush?

WOW. The "Iowa Electronics Market" is surging for the House GOP. Up to 57% to hold the House its highest level since June

They also have the GOP to lose the House at only 35% its lowest level since May.

The double standards with the bias media is putrid. Black Senator Barak Obama does fundraisers for Sheets Byrd, but then is upset over Allen using the N word.

Another Smear Campaign (Lott also) to bring down a Southern Republican.

Is Hillary behind this?

At least will not lose Allens Senate seat by Appointment of Tim Kaine if Allen was the VP in 2008.

History also said the party in power loses seats in the second year of an administration. Didn't happen. History is for the birds after redistricting---and I'm a professional historian.

LS thank God you are here. Too many Timid Republicans here.

The 6 year itch is a myth debunked by Clinton in 1998.

Remember how the GOP was going to lose the House in 2002 because of the Historical 2 year itch and the GOP had only 221 seats back then with a strong Gephardt as DEM leader.

LS also, are you familar with Iowa Electronics market mate?

The GOP and GOTV better get out to Indiana and help Hostettler, a New Poll form a Newspaper has him down 14 to Ellsworth.

People aren't stupid. They say they will vote Democrat now, but when they get to the booth they are going to think about what matters to them most.

You can skew a poll any way you want and the media does. Come election day, the only seats that will change hands are the ones being vacated by the polls who are retiring or going to jail.

Prior to 1998 the 6-year cycle usually was much worse for the president's party. However, circumstances often were very different. For example, in 1974 the economy was in a pretty bad recession. And after Watergate, many Republicans felt dispirited. The GOP losing 43 seats was a disaster of course. In 1966 the Dems lost 38 since things were not going well in Vietnam. I just don't think voters are as unhappy or rebellious now as they were then.

1986 was a very odd election with Repubs losing only 5 House seats but taking a drubbing in the Senate by losing 8 seats, and their majority. President Reagan's popularity was still fairly high then, before Iran-contra, and the economy was not bad as I recall.

So you never can tell with midterms. Often there are surprises. For now I will trust Michael Barone, that walking encyclopedia of political and election knowledge. He says the GOP keeps a majority in both houses. At least as of now.

Good point Andy. And the liberal media seems to forget that in 1994 the DEMS had many retirements both in the House and Senate. The GOP maybe has 5 or 6 competitive open House seats to defend? And one Tennessee Senate Seat open?

TCN, 1986 was bad for the GOP Senate because many of the losers were GOP Freshman Senators who won in 1980 due to Reagans Landslide. They were very weak accidental Senators.

Those who lost:

1. Fla-Hawkins(Graham)
2. Wash-Gorton
3. Denton(Shelby) Ala
4. GA-Mattingly
5. ND- Andrews
6. SD- Abdnor(Daschle)
7. East NC ( DIED)

That is the reason

I remember. That was devastating. Andrews and Abdnor also lost because farm state economies were doing poorly that year, as I recall. I still can't believe patriotic Alabama threw out former POW Jeremiah Denton though. And so many of those races were very close. Of course it could have been even worse as some GOP senators, like Steve Symms and Robert Kasten, were narrowly reelected.

Besides those 7 you mentioned, we lost 2 others. But we gained one with Kit Bond replacing Sen Eagleton in MO so the net loss was 8. Mikulski replaced the retiring "moderate" Republican Sen Matthias in MD. And a Democrat named Harry Reid replaced the good Sen Laxalt in NV. Whatever happened to Reid anyway? ;>

22) The Economy is now in the best shape it has been in our lifetime

How old are you? Five? The economy is not bad but that is a reckless statement that doesnt stand up to scrutiny unless your lifetime is so short you havent entered Kindergarten yet. I can think of several times during the Reagan and Clinton years when it was lots better. Of course I can definitely remember the Carter years when it was much, much worse!

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