Posted on 09/24/2006 8:26:28 PM PDT by calcowgirl
Just over three months ago, the special election to fill the vacancy left by congressman-turned-inmate Randy “Duke” Cunningham was a political rock concert. It was national news, big money poured in from both parties and Washington pundits touted it as a barometer of the national mood.
That was then.
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Republican Brian Bilbray won that June contest, defeating Democrat Francine Busby by slightly more than 4.5 percentage points. A comfortable margin, but not commanding, considering the Republican Party spent $5 million on Bilbray's behalf in a heavily Republican district.
No matter. Bilbray is now the incumbent, which brings powerful advantages as he faces Busby again in the Nov. 7 election to determine who holds the 50th Congressional District seat for the next two years.
The environment has changed dramatically – analysts no longer view this north San Diego district as “in play,” and the Democratic Party has cut off Busby's money pipeline – and with the new reality come new strategies.
Busby hammered away at corruption in the earlier contest but was drowned out by Bilbray's relentless focus on illegal immigration. Today she seeks to turn the race into a referendum on President Bush in general and America's involvement in Iraq in particular.
Busby also takes aim at Bilbray's voting record in the 109th Congress – short but filled with some potential land mines, such as voting to loosen restrictions on offshore oil drilling.
Bilbray continues to press immigration as the top issue and says his experience enables him to be a bridge between officials in San Diego County – where he was a local officeholder for years – and federal officials in Washington, where he served in Congress in the 1990s.
His campaign is a low-intensity affair that suggests he is looking past this election and focusing on 2008. His public appearances have involved greeting shoppers outside large supermarkets while campaign volunteers knock on doors across the district.
The evident objective: to build a base – and a defensive wall against a possible 2008 challenge from the Republican right, long suspicious of Bilbray.
Analysts bet on a Bilbray win, partly because Cunningham is a political ghost, gone from the scene, and corruption is hardly a disease afflicting only Republicans such as Cunningham. A Vietnam fighter ace, Cunningham pleaded guilty to conspiracy and tax evasion for taking more than $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors. He is serving more than eight years in federal prison.
More important is the simple math: Republicans enjoy a 14-point voter registration advantage over Democrats in the 50th, and a Survey USA poll released Monday showed Bush with 60 percent approval among Republicans in California. And there are higher Democratic priorities.
Attacks on Bush may solidify Busby's base, but are likely to have little impact overall, said Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California San Diego and an expert on Congress.
“She had her best chance in the special election,” Jacobson said. “She was unsuccessful then, and there's no reason to think she'd be more successful in the general election.”
Still, Busby hopes to beat the odds, trudging on with a leaner staff and a retooled message. She argues that corruption is still the issue, this time cast in a broader context. She sees corruption and unaccountability in the Bush administration as contributing to the violence in Iraq, increased terror threats, high health care and fuel costs and environmental damage.
“People have come to expect more bad news from this administration,” Busby said in a recent interview. “I think that they know it's time for a change.”
Bilbray dismisses Busby as well-meaning but naive – unqualified, he says, to vote on national issues and foreign policy. In a recent interview, Bilbray gave the impression that he views re-election as a done deal and renomination in 2008 as likely.
“If I represent the district in the next two years the way I feel I'm representing them in these last few months, nobody from the right is going to go after me,” he said.
Bilbray formerly served as an Imperial Beach mayor, a county supervisor and a South Bay congressman in the 1990s. He became a lobbyist after being defeated by Democrat Susan Davis in 2000. He recently moved to Carlsbad.
Busby is a Cardiff school board member.
Also on the ballot are Libertarian Paul King and Miriam Clark of the Peace & Freedom Party.
Busby said that if elected, she would focus on an exit strategy for Iraq, ending America's addiction to oil by pushing for alternative fuels development, reforming and protecting Social Security and Medicare, and balancing the federal budget.
Unlike the Democratic leaders in Congress, who call for troop pullouts by next year, Busby gives little in the way of details.
“I really don't know the exact timetable, but I do believe within the next two years we should be starting to pull back our troops ... increasing the Iraqis' ability to provide their own security,” she said.
Pressed for specifics, Busby said, “We need to listen to the military ... ”
Bilbray, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, responded, “I listen to the generals all the time.”
Bilbray agrees with Bush that setting a timetable would aid the insurgents in Iraq, but he takes pains to distance himself from the president on immigration.
“I am totally down on him” on immigration, Bilbray said. “ ... It's hard to have credibility on national security when you talk about one part of it, Iraq, and you basically totally ignore the other component, the border.”
Bilbray says immigration remains the top issue in the 50th District, one he approaches with a zeal bordering on obsession.
At his June 13 swearing-in, Bilbray, alluding to Cunningham, said that “the greatest scandal in America is not that one man broke the law, but that 12 million illegal immigrants are in this country and Washington is not doing enough about it.”
Bilbray is an ardent supporter of tough House legislation focused on penalties and enforcement.
Busby favors a broader Senate bill that includes increased border enforcement as well as provisions that would enable many illegal immigrants to become citizens after paying fines and meeting other requirements.
That puts her in rare accord with Bush, who has made remarks indicating a preference for the Senate bill.
Bilbray denounces the Senate version as allowing amnesty – a leading sponsor, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., dismisses such definitions – and credits the issue with his June victory.
“If it was one message the people of the 50th sent to Washington when they elected me, (it was) that 'friends don't let friends give amnesty to illegal aliens,' ” he said.
Unlike the earlier contest, Bilbray now has a fresh voting record for Busby to target. She takes aim at his votes to:
Raise annual congressional pay to $168,500. The raise was embedded in an annual Transportation and Treasury department spending bill.
“His first vote was for a raise within a couple of hours of being there,” Busby said. “I think with this incredible record deficit, Congress shouldn't even be discussing giving themselves a pay raise. ... It shows a total lack of accountability.”
Bilbray said a vote against the appropriations bill would have meant voting against criminal-justice funding, including anti-drug-gang efforts.
End a quarter-century moratorium on oil drilling on the Outer Continental Shelf. The bill allows more drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, but environmentalists say it could open up drilling in 85 percent of the nation's coastal waters, from New England to Alaska.
The bill keeps intact a ban on drilling within 50 miles of shore and allows states to extend it to 100 miles. It also allows states to allow drilling closer than 50 miles from shore.
Busby said Bilbray was paying back the oil industry for $140,000 in campaign support. She also said the bill makes California vulnerable and “is completely disconnected from the values of the people in the district.”
Bilbray said it gives Gulf Coast states autonomy and predicted California would never opt for new drilling. His position puts him at odds not only with many environmental groups, but with Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who on Tuesday signed a pact with the governors of Oregon and Washington to lobby Congress and the president on coastal issues, including concerns over offshore oil drilling.
Partially reform “earmarking,” a practice allowing members to anonymously direct money or tax breaks to pet projects or individuals. It was a central element of the Cunningham bribery scandal. On Sept. 14, the House adopted a resolution requiring that many earmarks and their sponsors be identified. The measure is in effect only through the end of this year, and contains many loopholes that still would allow the secret practice.
San Diego County's congressional delegation – three Republicans and two Democrats – voted for the proposal.
Bilbray drew fire from conservatives. The Web site for the conservative Club for Growth accused Bilbray of breaking his campaign promise to end secret earmarks.
“I have always said I am not opposed to members' (earmark) requests, or line items by members,” Bilbray said. “I've always been against the secret ones going on, and always have.”
Busby said: “I think he has his priorities wrong. His first priority is to the taxpayers and the people of his district, and not to his colleagues in Congress.”
Francine "YOU DON'T NEED PAPERS TO VOTE" Busby has zero chance.
Isn't this exactly what Pres. Bush has been saying? I think the dems are totally out of ideas, assuming they ever had any to begin with.
I'm not sure Busby can process intelligent thought.
Ought to be a cakewalk for reelection. It'll all be about turnout because I sense a lot of apathy in CA.
The district has at least one Marine base and the area is suffused with retired military. Attacking the war effort is going to play like a lead balloon. She just may be as dumb as Roger Hedgecock seemed to have suspected during the primary.
I notice, though, it's also a parallel to the Angelides campaign against Arnold with those "He's for Bush. Is he for you?" ads running now.
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