Posted on 09/21/2006 8:02:27 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops
NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000. What if the housing boom now turns to bust?
According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history.
(Excerpt) Read more at economist.com ...
I've left off the link, but the consensus in India is that gold has bottomed, thus spawning the massive demand we are seeing today:
Physical demand of gold in India is so strong that traders ran out of stocks for the past two days. Jewelers are buying for the upcoming month long festive season from tomorrow. The general consensus among traders and retail investors in India is that gold has bottomed out and that it will start to rise from tomorrow. A client of mine in New Delhi usually sells on average 45kgs to 50kgs of gold daily. For the past two days he has been selling 400kgs to 450kgs of gold and could sell more. The same is with the traders in Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai. Physical gold demand in India is huge as retail investors knows that higher gold prices are here to stay in the long term. There are less sellers in India even in the MCX and NCDEX future market. There is also a general view that after the “Shradh” paksha, gold and silver will rise. This ends today. Retail investors had postponed their demand due the inauspicious shradh paksha. We expect huge buying in spot as well as future market in gold and silver in India from tomorrow.
The US dollar is also weaker against the major currencies after the economic numbers suggest that a slowdown is in the offing. Crude oil prices have managed to hold $60 a barrel. The International Energy Agency, forecast non-Opec supply to increase by 1.8m b/d next year, on top of the 810,000 b/d increase it forecasts this year. While non-Opec supply growth has tended to disappoint in most years of this decade, 2007 marks the first time that significant disappointments have commenced before the year has even started. On US gasoline prices it said that they will we ever see a national average retail gasoline price under $2 per gallon again? The EIA doesn’t see the average price falling below the $2 per gallon level unless crude oil prices continue to decline sharply,” the EIA said. Crude oil has managed to hold $60 a barrel and as long as $60 holds on closing basis the downside will be limited.
If spot gold holds $570 for the rest of the month we may have bottomed out in the short term. Central bank sales will be over after the middle of next week. Gold and silver should break out of the recent trading range and edge higher subject to technical breakouts.
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GOLD -- DECEMBER FUTURE
Gold needs to break $597.50 to target $614.50 and $622.50. On the lower side $586.50 is the initial support with $578.80 and $566.60 as the key short term support levels.
SILVER -- DECEMBER FUTURE
Silver needs to break $1152 for $1220. On the lower side $1106 is the initial support with $1062 as the key short term support.
Happy Profitable Trading & A Great Weekend
I doubt anyone on FR is your boy.
And if you can't tell between imminent predictions (that are 15 months old) and timeless economic principles, you're even dumber than your FR reputation.
Big credibilty booster for you there.
ROTFLMAO
WBTS?
PS Good advice.
Woo-hoo! Technical analysis. LOL
What are the chicken entrails telling you?
Civil War threads. You know, refighting it on 2000+ post threads.
The ones who ARE cheering on such a collapse fall into two distinct categories.............the perpetual doom&gloomers, most of whom are also goldbugs and those who want to buy a house. The latter, are just hoping to not have to pay as much money as they currently would have to. The former.......well, they ARE doom&gloomers.
Housing/real estate is cyclical. The last time there was not only a nation wide, but a world wide down turn in real estate, was in 1930 and America was late to the bust. The rest of the world had been in a depression since the end of WW II.
I, for one, don't wear rose colored glasses; nor am I a member of the doom&gloom set.
Oh, I'd much rather sing my happy little song...IPO, oh IPO, here an IPO, there an IPO, happy is the day, to come, of my IPO.....la, la, laaaaaaaaaaaaa, la, la, la.
May be it's because he doesn't own any RE.
Hey, me got lots of liquid or near liquid cash to invest and am waiting for the right moment, which is coming soon.
Oil is going to start to go back up.............NOW?
"'tis the season........."? Says who? Oil/gas prices ALWAYS goes up in the late spring. It's because of the idiotic additive laws and because that is when most people go on trips and drive a lot. And FYI.............natural gas has plummeted, which has two hedge funds in quite a BIG mess and Goldman Sachs in a heap of trouble.
We agree on that...
It's confirming there's one born every minute.
'Tis the season was a reference to gold.
Christmas shopping early, are you? LOL
Great minds think alike :o)
Shopping has already been done. Just waiting for it to appreciate. Who knows, it might just turn into a present by Christmastime :o)
Definitely not coal. But I should be able to buy one heck of a lot of coal to send your posse if this continues:
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif
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