Gerlach's up by 8% in an independent poll? If the Dems can't beat a weak Gerlach with a well-funded challenger in a Kerry district, I'll have to change my prediction from a net loss of 5 GOP House seats to a break-even election.
Auh2, and it was from a credible pollster. Public Opinion Strategies . It shows you why Incumbents have 98% retention rate.
That Gerlach poll was an internal poll his campaign released. I don't believe it. (He is down 5% in the Constituent Dynamics poll the numbers in which are being corroborated in a few districts now by other polls.) If it is real, the only seat the Dems might get in the Northeast I would think is the Sherwood seat.