That Gerlach poll was an internal poll his campaign released. I don't believe it. (He is down 5% in the Constituent Dynamics poll the numbers in which are being corroborated in a few districts now by other polls.) If it is real, the only seat the Dems might get in the Northeast I would think is the Sherwood seat.
If the Gerlach poll is real, nationwide the Dems would pick up TX-22 and *maybe* IA-01, CO-07 and AZ-08. Mass suicide for the Kossites.
I think the filandering Sherwood will survive even if Gerlach goes down (as I assumed he would before hearing about the POS poll). The Dems didn't run a strong enough candidate to beat him, and you can't beat somebody with nobody (absent a 1994-style tsunami that swept in even Michael Flanagan in Chicago). Bobby Casey would have been a far better choice (even with Scranton placed in Kanjorski's CD).
What is kinda hard to figure is that the Murphy campaign continues to tout its own internal poll it did in early August which showed Murphy up only 1 in the same breath as the C-D poll which showed it up by 5. They did this in some article I read yesterday talking about the race and Gerlach's internal poll dump linked by politicspa.com, if I can find it.
I would think they would realize that repeating the "...your own internal poll that doesn't show it nearly as good as this Indy poll here..." line would tend to encourage doubts on both polls, at least it always does in my mind.
That was another race that I had a big question mark in my head from the C-D results that has not been cleared (I know that I had mentioned PA-10 and CT-2 to you before) because of this internal thingy. Just a lot of doubt in my head.
I still think the Democrats take the seat. If they don't, I think we'd all agree that it will be a very long night for them.
Torie, POS is the Bill McInturff outfit, who i thought you respected? He has Gerlach up by 8%
and Siena Research has Meier up 8% in the ny 24th.
Meier opponent, Accuri I believe has been under fire for his Buddies being nailed by the fEDS for Insurance fraud.
MY bad torie, I thought you mean the Sherwood Boehlert seat. I thought PENN sherwood had a lousy opponent?