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Can Wall Street withstand weak housing?
Business Week Online ^ | September 19, 2006 | Peter Coy

Posted on 09/20/2006 10:26:44 AM PDT by GodGunsGuts

Can Wall Street withstand weak housing?

Some experts say real estate slump may spell trouble for equities

ANALYSIS

By Peter Coy BusinessWeek Online

Updated: 1:28 p.m. PT Sept 19, 2006

If your nest egg is made of 2-by-4s and you're watching the real estate slowdown with a mixture of fear and nausea, then this article is for you.

The question: If real estate tanks, will stocks follow? Or will the market ignore housing? Or maybe — just maybe — will a decline in housing trigger a rise in stocks? It's something you really ought to think about if you're trying to figure out where to put your money.

(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: depression; despair; doom; dooooooooomed; dustbowl; endoftheworld; fearmongering; grapesofwrath; housing; housingbubble; realestate; realestateslowdown; theskyisfalling; tinfoil
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To: RobRoy
You prove my point. There are large amounts of land which are undeveloped, but which cannot be developed without adhering to strict local regulation.

Whether the town mandates more lots or less they create significant disincentives to development by effectively handcuffing developers from using their land in the most rational way.

A developer would rather install plumbing, heat, electrical, etc. for two 500K houses than 8 150K townhouses.

His margin is much better.

81 posted on 09/20/2006 1:01:16 PM PDT by wideawake ("The nation which forgets its defenders will itself be forgotten." - Calvin Coolidge)
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To: Larry Lucido

It's a little frustrating arguing with people who are unclear on what banks actually do, so a little humor is definitely in order.


82 posted on 09/20/2006 1:02:46 PM PDT by wideawake ("The nation which forgets its defenders will itself be forgotten." - Calvin Coolidge)
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To: wideawake

>>I see. I'll just point out that the more money I earn, the more credit is available to me as well.<<

That is true, and anecdotal. A lot of people got rich from the 1929 crash but it does not mean it was the norm.

Having a brother, a wife and a daughter in the real estate and mortgage business gives me a not all that uncommon perspective on just how much credit is being offered to people that don't make much money at all. It is, frankly, unprecedented. The fallout will be as well.


83 posted on 09/20/2006 1:02:49 PM PDT by RobRoy (Islam is more dangerous to the world now that Naziism was in 1937.)
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To: RobRoy

Any of that illegal? Should it be?


84 posted on 09/20/2006 1:05:42 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: RobRoy
That is true, and anecdotal.

Let's unanecdotalize it, then.

Fact: if a person's income increases, the amount of money banks are willing to lend to them increases.

It is the norm for one's credit access to increase in line with one's income.

85 posted on 09/20/2006 1:05:51 PM PDT by wideawake ("The nation which forgets its defenders will itself be forgotten." - Calvin Coolidge)
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To: GodGunsGuts

Whats going on with housing is that the great post-war baby boom has finished moving into the family home phase, which is the main driver of the real estate market. So, from now on you won't have ever larger numbers of families moving into the market every year. Hence the market is plateau-ing.

If want to make money in real estate, you need to figure out what will be the housing preferences for boomer retirees. Anybody got any ideas?


86 posted on 09/20/2006 1:09:05 PM PDT by dg62
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To: Petronski
I'm not sure I would call it a "pyramid scheme" but basically the problem is that for the last five years mortgage companies have been giving zero-down, interest only loans to anyone who can fog a mirror.

This has the effect of pumping huge amounts of liquidity into the property market with the accompanying runup of prices.

Of course what these borrowers are now discovering is that a house is not a liquid asset, you can't just call your broker and unload it at today's price.

We need to get back to prudent lending standards, there will be some short term pain but in the long run it's the only way.

87 posted on 09/20/2006 1:19:38 PM PDT by Comico Atómico (I want the government to defend this country, not to wrap it in cotton.)
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To: RobRoy; Toddsterpatriot
Prices run up with the idea that whenever you get "in", someone down the road will buy it from you for more laterr. You do whatever you can to get in with that in mind. But if you are one of the last ones "in" and you really cannot afford the payment, and nobody will pay you more, yer kinda stuck.

Sounds a lot like goldbuggery.

Further, if you had to pull out all the stops just to get in, and got a "sub-prime" loan, when that thing converts you are royally screwed.

What about using interest-free credit card advances?


88 posted on 09/20/2006 1:20:36 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: Comico Atómico
I'm not sure I would call it a "pyramid scheme" but basically the problem is that for the last five years mortgage companies have been giving zero-down, interest only loans to anyone who can fog a mirror.

I think that's a gross exaggeration.

89 posted on 09/20/2006 1:21:25 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: Petronski
I don't push anything. I give my reasons why I think gold and gold stocks are in a secular bull market. If you research my posts, I never even mentioned it until the NoPardons posse jumped all over me for having the temerity to even bring the subject up. I just can't understand for the life of me why your crowd is incapable of disagreeing agreeably. Why all the fuss? Just state your position, back it up when challenged, and let the chips fall where they may.
90 posted on 09/20/2006 1:22:21 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: RobRoy; SF Republican
Have you ever flown over the US. The availability of land is not an issue - yet.

The regions that have the highest housing costs & have experienced the greatest run-ups are all 'land scarce'. Not in absolute terms, but relative to the primary drivers effecting each region eg weather, jobs, beauty (water, hills, trees).

The best examples are, of course, the SF Bay area, SoCal, NYC, Boston, etc. Sure, one can move out to Sacramento, but the desirability delta is significant enough to produce huge differences in home values. Ditto coastal SoCal - 10 miles can put you from the beach in Santa Monica, PV, Newport Beach to inland LA/OC where gangs rule & life is cheap.

People currently pay, have always paid, and will continue to pay relative to all other factors, a huge premium to live in these desirable areas where "new land isn't being made".

91 posted on 09/20/2006 1:23:28 PM PDT by Chuck Dent
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To: GodGunsGuts
Why all the fuss?

You and your cohort cooperate (tacitly or explicitly) to flood Free Republic with doom-and-gloom democrat talking points and bad economic analysis. Such is the very essence of goldbuggery and gloomwhoring blogpimpery.

92 posted on 09/20/2006 1:25:29 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: GodGunsGuts
The stock market and housing exhibit an 80% correlation, although the stock market lags by 12 months.

The NAHB index has fallen by over 50% so I wouldn't buy any stocks for the next 12 months.

October is seldom a good month for the stock market. Hopefully the worst of the decline holds off until next year.


BUMP

93 posted on 09/20/2006 1:28:04 PM PDT by capitalist229 (Get Democrats out of our pockets and Republicans out of our bedrooms.)
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To: Petronski

OK, let me correct that to anyone who can fog a mirror, has a SSN, and can sign their name. Google "no doc loans" for further info.


94 posted on 09/20/2006 1:28:30 PM PDT by Comico Atómico (I want the government to defend this country, not to wrap it in cotton.)
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To: GodGunsGuts

Can Wall Street withstand weak housing?



No.


95 posted on 09/20/2006 1:29:04 PM PDT by durasell (!)
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To: Comico Atómico

Still a gross exaggeration.


96 posted on 09/20/2006 1:30:22 PM PDT by Petronski (Living His life abundantly.)
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To: Petronski
You are starting to sound an awful lot like Charlie (you know, that guy from the chocolate factory). And BTW, the fact that gold has been rising is by definition a warning sign to the global economy. If you choose to look away from what gold is trying to tell us, then you are part of the very problem that is driving PMs higher and higher.
97 posted on 09/20/2006 1:33:12 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: capitalist229

Excellent points. Do you have a chart or a link that demonstrates said correlation?


98 posted on 09/20/2006 1:35:12 PM PDT by GodGunsGuts
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To: RobRoy

That will happen shortly after all we get flying cars.


99 posted on 09/20/2006 1:35:43 PM PDT by az_illini (Why? Why? Why are there no flying cars? We were promised flying cars.)
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To: conservativecorner; expat_panama; Mase; 1rudeboy; ex-Texan; GodGunsGuts
Here is an interesting chart from expat_panama.

Expat_Panama's data

Taking into account larger houses and higher incomes, it looks like housing is more affordable than it was 1978.

100 posted on 09/20/2006 1:36:35 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Goldbugs, immune to logic and allergic to facts.)
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