Posted on 09/20/2006 10:26:44 AM PDT by GodGunsGuts
Oh yeah?
Show me. Provide a link.
LOL!!! "Gold is at or near its postwar highs! The time to buy is now, while it's still expensive!"
Lenders would almost always rather do a workout than bother with foreclosure.
If gold is so damned great, why are all the goldbugs so anxious to sell it to me?
;OD
>>As another poster noted, runups are more dramatic when you do not grpah with a zero y-axis.<<
I know you mean that they "look" more dramatic. That said, you can still show the runup compared to other runups to gain a feel for the difference. In this case, starting at zero would still make this one look pretty dramatic.
If th mean was 1000, and the peak of the highest runup was 1001, and the scale started at 999, I would agree that it was visually skewed beyond reason. That is not what is happening here. Here it dramatizes this runup compared to others.
This is the kind of graph used to show stock activity over a particular day. the lowest point on the graph is the lowest point of the day and the highest point on the graph is the highest of the day. I like graphs with high dynamic range when trying to analyze trends.
When someone expresses an opinion, it's not investment advice. It's one person's opinion, and should be taken as such.
Please provide a link of a goldbug ever offering to sell you anything.
You beat me to it. :^)
I hear it on the radio twice or three times an hour.
And if you change "offering to sell" (not my claim) to "pushing," you fit the description perfectly.
Hypotheticals do nothing for me.
Here's an example of investment advice:
I would be getting my money out of REITs right now and diversifying into other areas.
I prefer accurate ones.
That matter of taste aside, the housing boom of the 90s was different from other increases in housing prices due to a variety of factors:
(1) People are buying much larger homes with many more conveniences, accessories, etc. Why? Because Americans are wealthier.
(2) There has been a huge wave of immigration between 1985 and now - there are many more people living in America. 248M people lived in America in 1990. almost 300M live here today. That is an incredible growth in demand, because not only is it a lot more people - it is a lot more adults of home buying age. It's not a 20% increase in demand - it's a 25%+ increase in demand. That's unprecedented.
(3) Land use restrictions are getting stiffer and stiffer - the stock of available land for development is getting smaller. My own home was built several years ago on a plot that could easily accomodate 2 houses, but the twonship restricted the number of homes allowed to be built on the parcel.
That means that demand is outstripping supply by about 33%.
Plus, another poster pointed out how the capital gains tax break for primary residences has spurred greater liquidity in the housing market.
So, GodGunsGuts, is weak housing or strong housing bad this week? It's hard to keep track.
>>(1) People are buying much larger homes with many more conveniences, accessories, etc. Why? Because Americans are wealthier.<<
I disagree. I think it is for a variety of reasons, but primarily it is because americans are getting more credit, based on a real estate credit pyramid scheme, which just ended.
Could you explain how this worked or works?
>>(3) Land use restrictions are getting stiffer and stiffer - the stock of available land for development is getting smaller. My own home was built several years ago on a plot that could easily accomodate 2 houses, but the twonship restricted the number of homes allowed to be built on the parcel.<<
I live in the Seattle area and the exact opposite is true. A person who is trying to subplat a couple of acres is REQUIRED to put a minimum of lots on it. The 5,000 sq ft range is typical lot size around here. One acquaintance attempted to split a lot of roughly 1.5 acres into two lots for two homes for his two sons. Based on government rules (I don't remember if it was city or county) he was required to leave it as-is or create 12 lots with all the required utility connectivity.
We live in an area with vast amounts of undeveloped real estate with little pockets of homes crammed so close together they look like apartment complexes.
I see. I'll just point out that the more money I earn, the more credit is available to me as well.
Wealth and the availability of credit are highly correlated.
(more good news) S&P 500 notches a 5 1/2-year high
Interesting juxtaposition!
No, banks just want to collect real estate, pay the taxes and upkeep on it, and take pictures of it and show it to their grandkids. That's what they do, collect real estate. Those signs in banks saying "Workouts" or "Loss Mitigation Department" are really janitor closets. It's a big inside joke.
(Do I need a sarcasm tag?)
Prices run up with the idea that whenever you get "in", someone down the road will buy it from you for more laterr. You do whatever you can to get in with that in mind. But if you are one of the last ones "in" and you really cannot afford the payment, and nobody will pay you more, yer kinda stuck.
Further, if you had to pull out all the stops just to get in, and got a "sub-prime" loan, when that thing converts you are royally screwed. If it happens to a large enough minority of new home buyers, we will all feel it to some degree.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.