Posted on 09/20/2006 10:26:44 AM PDT by GodGunsGuts
Can Wall Street withstand weak housing?
Some experts say real estate slump may spell trouble for equities
ANALYSIS
By Peter Coy BusinessWeek Online
Updated: 1:28 p.m. PT Sept 19, 2006
If your nest egg is made of 2-by-4s and you're watching the real estate slowdown with a mixture of fear and nausea, then this article is for you.
The question: If real estate tanks, will stocks follow? Or will the market ignore housing? Or maybe — just maybe — will a decline in housing trigger a rise in stocks? It's something you really ought to think about if you're trying to figure out where to put your money.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
People actually listen to that guy? Too funny. I wonder if he has a magnet that works on gold?
You’d think a guy who has been so early and so correct on the markets moves (like ex-tex and Gigi) would be worth billions and wouldn’t lose clients money.
>>If you preach doom long enough eventually the doom will occur, even if it comes as something less than the doomers envisioned. <<
Firmly agree. But when a stopped clock is right,it is nice when people acknowledge it.
I also read an interesting article two months ago that said that if we calculated unemployment the way they did during the depression, it would be (two months ago) about 15%.
This one will play out differently. Instead of executivew selling pencils it will be more like germany - executives with picks and shovels building the autobahn.
I remember the mid-1970’s recession. I graduated from high school in 1972. This is FAR WORSE, but hasn’t fully played out yeat. It is like comparing an accute auto accident to a slow rumbling earthquake that is about to reach 9. We’re not there yet.
FWIW, my doom and gloom predicting did not begin until late 2005.
FWIW, the soup lines didn’t hit in 1929. We are just about to hit the soup line phase, but even then, it won’t play out that way this time. The hurting will be real, but more private.
>>... this isn’t even as bad as the Carter economy... I know, I lived through the Carter era... and THAT was bad... however, at the rate they are printing money when inflation kicks in things are going to get nasty, if anything the government is trying very hard to make things very bad.<<
It is much worse. You are comparing the Carter economy at it’s worst compared to this one in it’s infancy. This is the year this one broke. We have a long way, and a lot of pain, to go. And I’m only talking economically. Socially and world stability wise, it could get WWII ugly, or worse.
This is VERY global, and will get VERY bad.
I do agree with your last sentence though...
>>People actually listen to that guy? Too funny. I wonder if he has a magnet that works on gold?<<
You remind me of the guys that laughed at him in 2006. The problem was not that they disagreed with him. The problem was with the incredibly disrespectful way they disagreed - and he was proven dead right and they were a bunch of pink ponies...
His response to this guy on youtube is great!
He’s not perfect, but he is hotter than anything else out there right now. That audio pretty funny. He had a client lose money when the market crashed. Not all that surprising. It’s gonna happen from time to time.
You can find big winners and big losers who follow pretty much any investment advisor. Anecdotal evidence doesn’t prove they are good or bad. A more broad view is more accurate. This Schiff guy has been so utterly and completely exonerated by current events that it is, frankly, the most cut-and-dried case I have ever seen!
He was wrong about his bullishness on gold recently, but it turned out there are interesting forces that caused a temporary significant gold drop that seem to be running out of steam as I type this (gold up about $120 in about a week). I was never a gold bug before (the last gold I had, I sold for ~$250) but I am definitely wishing I had bought last week at the ~$700 range.
I know you are being sarcastic, but I suspect you are closer to the truth than you fully realize.
So many people cannot learn from history and have an “it can’t happen here” attitude.
There has already been a lot of attitude adjustment the last couple of years. The next two will be monumental.
Dead serious.
in post 182, in September of 2006, you said,
“If true, then why is our debt to income ratio less than 1% higher than it was in 1990 or 1996? What’s different about this time? Where’s the proof that Americans have taken on more debt than they can service? Where’s the pyramid? “
Do you now understand why it was different this time?
Do you now see the pyramid?
If Schiff is right, our next bubble may be dollars. I do notice that he doesn’t seem to think this thing is as global as I do. He understands the fundamentals better than I do (and DEFINITELY better than most economists in 2006) so he may be factoring in things I am ignoring.
But he knew the market was going to crash. Even the mighty Schiff can't make money for his clients when he knows what is going to happen, before it happens? LOL!
This Schiff guy has been so utterly and completely exonerated by current events that it is, frankly, the most cut-and-dried case I have ever seen!
Cut-and-dried, except for the client who lost all that money. LOL!
>>Cut-and-dried, except for the client who lost all that money.<<
You’re completely missing the point. This is the cut and dried part: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw
Time made fools of the others on the show. They didn’t just disagree with him. They mocked him. As I said in another post, he was so correct it is as though he has a DeLorean with a Mr. Fusion in his garage.
He nailed it, and the blatherers mocked him. It is not deniable, though some, apparently, would try.
No, he is not God. The client losing money, and his bullishness on gold as it lost $250 prove, but his overall predictions were not only spot on, but so was the analysis behind them.
He called it. And it wasn’t luck.
Boohoo. Poor Schiff, did they hurt his feelings? LOL!
He nailed it, and the blatherers mocked him.
He nailed it and yet that investor lost how much money?
No, he is not God.
Finally, we agree.
>>Boohoo. Poor Schiff, did they hurt his feelings? LOL!<<
You are missing the point. It is not about him.
It is about them. Their character. Their honesty. Their grasp of the situation. Their response to someone that dares to disagree with them.
Schiff is fine
>>He nailed it and yet that investor lost how much money?<<
What that investor lost on had nothing to do with what Schiff said in 2006 in those interviews. He was also ONE investor who didn’t seem to understand the fundamentals of what he was doing.
Schiff is a big boy, he doesn't need you to hold hid hand when people are mean to him.
What that investor lost on had nothing to do with what Schiff said in 2006 in those interviews.
But Schiff knew the dollar was going to implode.
He was also ONE investor who didn’t seem to understand the fundamentals of what he was doing.
He was an investor who gave his money to Schiff to invest. Schiff, who "had a time machine in his garage" still lost this guy $500 K in 6 months. Maybe this guy should apologize to Schiff for being mean to him?
>>Schiff is a big boy, he doesn’t need you to hold hid hand when people are mean to him.<<
My Gawd man, you are still missing the point. It is not about him. Comprende?
This really is comical.
>>He was an investor who gave his money to Schiff to invest. Schiff, who “had a time machine in his garage” still lost this guy $500 K in 6 months. <<
The guy lost nothing. He didn’t sell.
Did you ever check Babe Ruth’s batting average? It never did reach 1000. Actually, it never came close. Some people still regard him as a pretty good hitter though.
It's awful that there are mean people in the world. Especially people on TV who are mean to Peter.
This really is comical.
You're right about that.
The guy lost nothing. He didn’t sell.
That's funny!
Did you ever check Babe Ruth’s batting average? It never did reach 1000.
You mean Peter and his time machine aren't perfect? Thanks for realizing that.
>>It’s awful that there are mean people in the world. Especially people on TV who are mean to Peter.<<
Yes, I agree it is awful. What is interesting is that the only argument these people really had was to belittle him. And they get PAID for what they know.
The bigger issue here is that so many of the “economic” talking heads have been exposed for what they are - worse than useless. He nailed them on it and they were at a loss to support their position and exposed themselves as who they are in the way they responded. Schiff was merely the catalyst. The object that exposed them.
This is about them. Not one of those people can be taken seriously by me again, not becuase of their position, but because of how they handled dissent.
>>You mean Peter and his time machine aren’t perfect?<<
Never thought he was. I had not heard of him before I saw that video. Right after my first viewing, my wife and I discussed the whole idea that he may have been right on this, but he is not God. That is born out in his missteps on gold.
That is the difference between us (Christians) and Obama supporters. We know that all men are flawed, but some have specific wisdom in specific areas that can be useful. Schiff proved that in 2006. The other guys proved just how wrong - yet with arrogant confidence - experts can be.
I learned that personally with the election. I had virtually no doubt that McCain would win. Unfortunately my fundamentals were flawed. I overestimated the reasoning ability and character of the American people. I should have known. Israel wanted a King, so God gave them a king. America wanted Obama, so God gave us Obama.
It is going to be an interesting two years.
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