Posted on 09/20/2006 10:26:44 AM PDT by GodGunsGuts
Can Wall Street withstand weak housing?
Some experts say real estate slump may spell trouble for equities
ANALYSIS
By Peter Coy BusinessWeek Online
Updated: 1:28 p.m. PT Sept 19, 2006
If your nest egg is made of 2-by-4s and you're watching the real estate slowdown with a mixture of fear and nausea, then this article is for you.
The question: If real estate tanks, will stocks follow? Or will the market ignore housing? Or maybe — just maybe — will a decline in housing trigger a rise in stocks? It's something you really ought to think about if you're trying to figure out where to put your money.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
LMAO
Your Obamalike twisting of my post is out of context.
My post was correct. The housing market had some softness but has returned. To be sure there are some soft spots still but a large portion of the country has moved on.
You spinning again. Your original comment was that the housing hoopla was overstated and would lead to no real problems. Some softness in the housing market the last 2 years?? LMAO again. Worst record on prices, number of homes for sale etcfor many areas of housing since the depression.
No real problems huh? You mean like 3 out of 5 investment banks are now gone, stock market near collapse, record forclosures, record number of unsold homes for sale, lowest number of new building starts since 1979, many homebulders who have gone bankrupt, home prices that have dropped percentage wise to levels not seen since the depresssion, reorc number of people upside down in their mortgage.
No you are the one that was WRONG WRONG WRONG and now you don't have the backbone or character to admit you understated the problem.
You say the housing market has returned? You must be a realtor. BTW: Show me a link that home prices are again increasing throughout the country, home starts are increasing etc
I heard on the radio, yesterday, that the housing prices in So Cal are already on the rebound. It is over in Cal and a lot of new homeowners are very happy to have been able to purchase their first home at a more realistic and fair price.
WASHINGTON — U.S. construction of new homes and apartments fell to the lowest level in 17 years last month, showing the country is still gripped by a severe housing downturn that has triggered billions of dollars of losses and is reshaping the structure of U.S. finance. The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that housing construction dropped a surprise 6.2 per cent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 895,000 units. That's the slowest building pace since January 1991, another period when housing was going through a painful correction. The decline is larger than the 1.6 per cent drop analysts expected and showed weakness in all the country except the West. The housing downturn has depressed overall economic activity and pushed the country close to a recession. Thousands of construction jobs have been lost, contributing to an economic slowdown that has pushed the overall unemployment rate to a five-year high of 6.1 per cent in August. There have been steep declines in home prices in much of the country. This has helped trigger record levels of mortgage defaults, dumping more homes on an already glutted market and further depressing prices. The billions of dollars of losses on mortgage investments have sent shockwaves through the country's financial sector, triggering the biggest restructuring on Wall Street since the Great Depression. In the past 10 days, the government has seized control of the country's two biggest mortgage finance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and late Tuesday announced it was providing an $85 billion emergency loan to the country's largest insurance company, American International Group Inc. All three titans were brought low by soaring losses on mortgage investments. (Bert I thought there was just softness????) For August, the 6.2 per cent drop in housing construction reflected a 1.9 per cent decline in single-family construction which fell to an annual rate of 630,000 units. Construction of multi-family units fell by 15.1 per cent to an annual rate of 265,000 units. Building activity was down in all parts of the country outside of the West. Construction fell by 14.5 per cent in the Northeast and was down 13.6 per cent in the Midwest and 7.4 per cent in the South. All the declines left construction activity 33.1 per cent below the level of a year ago. Analysts believe that construction will continue falling for many more months as builders struggle to reduce the backlog of unsold new homes in a market that continues to slump. Building permits, considered a good indicator of future activity, dropped 8.9 per cent in August to an annual rate of 854,000 units.
Eva, most housing rebounds take years to recover. Like I said a one or two month trend does not mean anything. It took something like 10-12 years for home prices to recover in CA from the early 90's downturn. Same thing for Texas back in the 80's.
I will admit if I'm wrong down the road but I predict prices in CA will level off soon and remain level for quite some time. Many housing economist are predicting deflation in housing like Japan went through in the 90's.
The over building is not going to disappear over night, but the increase in sales numbers is a good sign that this market correction was desperately needed and that things are moving in the right direction.
I sold a house in So Cal in 1990. I saw that slump coming and got out by reducing the price of my house by $10,000. Sold it in less than a month. It drove the neighbors crazy, but we were being transferred and could afford to take the hit.
In five years, we could not have bought that house back again. The same thing happened in the eighties when the interest rates went through the roof and assumable mortgages disappeared. The prices dropped and you couldn’t sell your house for what you had in it. It always came back. The eighties rebound was artificial, though, driven by the proposed limits on growth. They solved that issue by passing the cost of the infr-structure on to the buyer through Mello-Roos assessments.
I’m glad the people who really wanted a home are now able to buy one in CA.
You forgot your sarcasm tag.
I’m not so sure California is done dropping yet. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Our congressional and executive branches have made it pretty clear by their actions in the last week that they are desperate. This means they think it will get MUCH worse if they don’t do “something”.
If “much worse” happens, I expect things to continue to tank in California.
“Pendulums don’t stop at equilibrium”. - unknown.
September 25th. Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell in August to a 17-year low, signaling the housing market suffered another setback even before the latest turmoil in financial markets.
Sales dropped 11.5 percent, more than forecast, to an annual rate of 460,000, the fewest since January 1991, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median sales price dropped to a four-year low.
When you put together all the current events and our politicians responses to them, it is looking as though we are on a precipice that will make my comments from two years ago look downright optomistic.
We have a big garden at my house with a six foot chain link fence. And an SKS with a 20 shot loader. I understand deer is good but I’ve never tried ‘coon.
There is an interesting graph here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/97187-record-decline-for-existing-home-sales
Hurts my eyes just looking at it.
Speaking of old threads that were eerily accurate, you gotta check this out!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1994684/posts
>>That’s one well hidden pyramid. Is it a secret? Does the Plunge Protection Team know about it?<<
It’s not so well hidden any more. This is gonna get MUCH worse!
I have lived in Seattle since the mid-1960’s. My wife and I just bought property (15 acres with a brand new “love nest”) in central Kentucky. I didn’t want to buy in this market but it was a bargain even for Kentucky, where prices really don’t change much. And, it is EXACTLY where we want to live the rest of our lives.
I think the megalopolises are going to get very dangerous next Summer, and maybe even more dangerous after that. For a refresher, just go to youtube and search “watts riots” for some interesting images.
>>The doomers have been saying that for four years now. Why not give us a clue so we know that you have one?<<
Here is a guy that had a clue. He was mocked unceasingly. Those other people on this video have lost ALL credibility for the rest of their lives!
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=peter+schiff+2006&search_type=&aq=f
He made fools of all of them. This thing was easy to see to anyone that was remotely attached to this and didn’t have skin in the game. Heck, Peter DID and he STILL saw it coming with mindboggling accuracy!
>>You’re right...it’s just like the great depression...or worse!!
This is why you were wrong back in 2006 and is why you are still wrong today. Now go get in your soup line and eat now because I heard the TVA will be hiring later this afternoon.<<
What a difference a couple of months makes. ;)
How do you think Black Friday will do?
We were right. Period. Freakishly so. I was just exposed to a Peter Shiff youtube video from 2006 that make me wonder if he has a DeLorean with a Mr. Fusion in his garage. Search Peter Shiff 2006. Not only was he right, but the other economists that disagreed with him destroyed their credibility by simply laughing at him as he spoke. Their method of debate reminded me of the tactics of GW alarmists and evolutionists.
>>Why? Because I don’t believe the worst economy since Hoover is upon us? I suppose your comments make sense to you but they sure don’t make any sense to me.<<
Do you still believe this is not the worst economy since Hoover?
If you preach doom long enough eventually the doom will occur, even if it comes as something less than the doomers envisioned. Maybe you don't remember the mid 70's or the recession of '80-82. I do. Maybe you've haven't read much about the great depression. I have. Either way, let me know when the rate of unemployment hits 25%, the soup lines form and the streets are filled with former executives selling pencils and apples for a nickle.
Until that time, please climb back into your bunker, confirm you have two year's supply of food and spare me the comparisons that aren't analogous in any way.
~ROFLOL~ Not even close... this isn’t even as bad as the Carter economy... I know, I lived through the Carter era... and THAT was bad... however, at the rate they are printing money when inflation kicks in things are going to get nasty, if anything the government is trying very hard to make things very bad.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.