2006 Senate RealClearPolitics Poll Averages

Real Clear Politics ^ | September 19, 2006 | RCP

[drellberg]

By most accounts, the House and Senate races are narrowing. But I don't see this. Either the polls are old (before 8/31) or they show Dems' leads as wide as ever.

Thus, for example:

MD (9/13): Cardin (D) +7 MN (8/27): Klobucher (D) +7 MO (9/13): McCaskill (D) +2 --- Republ'ns lose seat? NJ (9/10): Kean (R) +4 -- Dems lose seat? OH (9/14): Brown (D) +6 -- Republ'ns lose seat? PA (8/21): Casey (D) +8 -- Republ'ns lose seat? MD (9/13): Whitehouse (D) +8 -- Republ'ns lose seat? TN (9/11): Ford (D) up in one; down in the other -- Republicans lose seat?

Now, I think Republicans will hold PA and TN, and I'm cautiously optimistic about MO. I don't think the Dems will lose NJ -- it's too corrupt.

Still, my larger question is this: Where is the data supporting the assertion that the momentum is shifting towarde Republicans? It isn't in these polls.

[RockinRight]

Any opinion on the Ohio gubernatorial race?

[LS]

Blackwell is behind. No surprise: Strickland has higher name recognition. But it's close, and Blackwell's ads on "Taxin' Ted" have just started. We expect steady advances---Zogby, for what it's worth, has Blackwell behind by 5%.

[airborne]

I'd like Casey even less than I like Specter.(and that's saying a lot)

[RockinRight]

Think it's still winnable? My early prediction was that Blackwell would be behind most of the summer and then start pulling neck and neck around Oct. 1 to win by about 1-2 points on election day.

[drellberg]

"Santorum, Talent, DeWine all hold. EITHER Burns or Chafee holds.
GOP gains NJ and either MD or MN. (now leaning toward MD). That's +1."

I like your optimism. But DeWine???? That's a stretch for me.

[LS]

I'm here in OH. I know lots of disenchanted conservatives---and believe me, that's where all his erosion has come from. But we still have the registration #s, and WHEN (not if) the conservatives reluctantly see that DeWine at his worst is still better than Sherrod Brown at his best, DeWine will pull it out.

[colonel mosby]

Democrats have NO chance in Tennessee.

Harold Ford Jr. is a member of the most crooked political machine in Tennessee history. His father, aunt, and uncle were all deposed by their own individual scandals. He's touring the state trying to convince everyone that he's not a liberal, and that he's not as shady as his discredited relatives. It won't fly !

It's amazing to me that Ford Jr. is even on the radar screen.

[Dave S]

Still, my larger question is this: Where is the data supporting the assertion that the momentum is shifting towarde Republicans? It isn't in these polls.

Its in the House races that they have seen improvement. That is where they ask the generic question of who are you more likely to vote for the House, a Rep or Dem. Also they are looking at the Presidential performance ratings with Bush showing improvement. This is important because the Dems have been attempting to natinalize the elections and make the various house races a referendum on Bush.

Some of the Senate races like the Talent race you mentioned are within the statistical margin of error. In three of four recent polls, however, McCaskill has been leading Talent. This is probably do to her running about three times as much advertising in the past week or two as Talent. Her ads are more hard hitting than Talent's. JIm's ads seem to be targeted more towards Suburban Republican women or independents in that they all have a let's play nice and all sing kumbaya feel to them. I'm working hard for Missouri. I'm working with Senator Feinstein on this and Senator Dodd on that. Not a lot to drive conservatives to the polls. More about Methamphetamines and Ethanol.

McCaskill is hitting hard on special tax breaks that Talent has voted for the oil companies and on Talent's opposition to embryonic stem cell research which is supported by a 2:1 margin here in Missouri.

[Dave S]

what's up Montana???M

Have a foot in mouth candidate who should have retired years ago before he lost his senility.

[Dave S]

GOP gains one seat in the senate, net.

You ought to stick to writing history books and leave the prognosticating to others. You have spent too much time in the library.

[Dave S]

Any opinion on the Ohio gubernatorial race?

If LS tells you the Rep is going to win then he's really smoking something funny as today's poll shows the Dem ahead by 21 points.

[Dave S]

Harold Ford Jr. is a member of the most crooked political machine in Tennessee history. His father, aunt, and uncle were all deposed by their own individual scandals. He's touring the state trying to convince everyone that he's not a liberal, and that he's not as shady as his discredited relatives. It won't fly !

Ive heard that for years but I wouldnt bet my house on it. Last I saw Ford was tied with the Rep. This one will probably be determined by the final trend. If tide is to Republicans we keep the seat. If to the Dems than they will probably care Tenn as well.

[RockinRight]

Saw another one showing Strickland up by 5.

Fact is there are a lot of undecideds in this race.

[Dave S]

Ohio Governor Race: Ken Blackwell(R) vs. Ted Strickland(D)
Poll Date Sample Blackwell (R) Strickland (D) Spread
RCP Average 08/23 to 09/17 - 35.0% 53.7% Strickland +18.7
Quinnipiac 09/11 - 09/17 876 LV 34% 55% Strickland +21
Rasmussen 09/13 - 09/13 500 LV 35% 54% Strickland +19
USA Today/Gallup 08/23 - 08/27 584 LV 36% 52% Strickland +16

[colonel mosby]

Al Gore lost Tennessee, his own state, in 2000. Why would you think that Ford would poll better than Gore ?

Republicans Frist, Alexander, and Thompson all won their senate seats by comfortable margins against far more impressive opponents than little Harold.

Corker will pull away when the facts start trickling out about Ford.

[colonel mosby]

Go to the ADA website. ADA( "the oldest independent liberal lobbying group" ) rates each member of Congress on their liberal voting records.

Frist's lifetime average is 3. Thompson's was 5. Gore's was 65. Sasser's was 70.

Little Harold's is 84, the most liberal of any member of the Tennessee delegation in the last 20 years.

Ford Jr. can hide from his voting record for just so long. Even his friends Chris Matthews and Don Imus can't put lipstick on this pig.

[GregH]

Mccaskill screwed up big time with her Bush/Katrina blacks attack, missouri voters are realising what a freak she is, Talent will comfortably win the senate election.

[LS]

Odd, I was right on in 2002 and 2004, and I mean DEAD on. I was more accurate than Zogby, Sabato, or Rasmussen. Perhaps it is YOU who should heed the prognistications, esp. when they don't conform to idiot polling.

[drangundsturm]

The polls just about always favor democrats at this time. Most of the polls are not likely voters but generic adults, which is especially useless in a midterm where turnout is very low. That may account for several points of poll swing by itself. In addition, Karl Rove has improved even the impressive 2004 republican GOTV in the past 2 years so it is practically a science. He uses high tech computers to focus efforts like a laser, while the dems still hire minimum wage people to call randomly on phones. KR's GOTV strategy alone is worth 3 to 5 points in every close race, in ways that do not show up on any poll. And also, yes, many of the polls listed at RCP were before labor day. Spending on ads is only just beginning in most places, and the GOP will outspend by 5 to 1 according to some reports. That has not kicked in yet.

Owise currently gives the dems less than 1 chance in 7 of winning the senate and about 1 in 3 of winning house, based on current information. See: http://www.owise.com/servlet/ow?t=report&script=owise&r_COMMAND=ELECT2006

[Dave S]

Mccaskill screwed up big time with her Bush/Katrina blacks attack, missouri voters are realising what a freak she is,

And you saw that reported on the main stream media in which Missouri TV market? I watch a lot of local news in St. Louis and I never saw any mention of it. Only on local consevative talk radio. People have got to hear these things before it can make a difference to them.